With fewer than seven weeks remaining in the NBA's regular season, it's time to start thinking about All-NBA teams, which are going to be brutal to narrow down with the unprecedented depth of talent across the league this season. There's potentially tens of millions of dollars at stake in the form of supermax contracts only available to players who make an All-NBA team in two of the three seasons prior to their extension or in the season immediately prior, which is way too high of stakes for a list compiled but a bunch of people with, well, an opinion.
But that's the way it is. So it's important. I don't have a vote. With that much at stake, I wouldn't even want one. The list I have compiled below is the best representation I can come up with of who I think the voters will lean toward and who I think deserves the spots.
Important note: All-NBA teams no longer have positional requirements. It's the best 15 players in the league this season, essentially, who meet the new 65-game requirement. It could be all guards. All wings. All bigs. Or any combination thereof. With that in mind, let's get to it.
First Team
Luka Doncic is going to win the scoring barring an extended absence making him ineligible; Doncic has missed eight games so far, meaning he can miss nine more (Dallas has 25 games left) to make the 65 minimum. If there was ever one bone to pick with Luka's offensive game, it was his 3-point shooting, which always had more value than the raw percentages for the gravity he creates -- but now he's shooting a career-high 38% from 3 on over 10 attempts per game. The final step to a truly indefensible creator and scorer.
If the Thunder end up as the West's No. 1 seed, which is obviously a distinct possibility, it's going to be tough to keep Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's name off the MVP trophy. Only one player in history has averaged at least 30 points, six assists and two steals with an 58-plus eFG% over a full season. His name is Stephen Curry, who did it in his unanimous MVP season of 2016. SGA is well on track to become the second.
Somewhat lost in the drama of the Bucks' season is the fact that Giannis Antetokounmpo is having the best season of a career that already includes two MVPs. Career highs in scoring, assists and shooting percentage. A top-flight defender with a relentless motor, and the most devastating transition force in the world. Leads the league in fourth-quarter scoring and has become a plus passer.
The betting favorite to win his third MVP, Nikola Jokic is currently the best player in the world and it's not debatable. The traditional stats are superb. The advanced stats paint him as a god. With Jokic on the floor, the Nuggets outscore opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions with what would rank as the best offense in the league, per Cleaning the Glass. With Jokic off the floor? Denver gets outscored by 11 points per 100 with what would rank as the worst offense in the league.
Kevin Durant's season is flying under the radar and, unlike the first four guys listed, he's by no means a lock for a first-team slot (Jayson Tatum and Kawhi Leonard feel like coin flips for this spot). But look at KD's numbers: 28 PPG on 53% shooting and over 42% from 3 on one of the toughest shot diets in the league. Durant has to take more one on one contested shots than just about any other superstar, and it doesn't even faze him. He's also playing spirited defense, both on ball with his versatility and as one of the most impactful help defenders/rim protectors in the league.
Second Team
Jayson Tatum could take Durant's spot on the first team, but he's a lock for at least second team because he's the best player on the best team. Tatum is a beautifully skilled scorer; perhaps even too skilled as if there's one thing to knock it's still his reliance on tough contested shots because he's so capable of making them. He's only made 33% of his pull-up 3s, but this is nitpicking. Bottom line, Tatum can get any shot he wants at any time, and he does it on both ends.
Kawhi Leonard's scoring numbers, while still great, don't pop at 24 a game, but he only takes 17 shots and he's at over 25 a game on ludicrous 56/49/93 shooting splits since the start of December, when the Clippers really took off. For the season, Leonard is knocking on the door of 50-40-90 -- which would put him in the most exclusive shooting club in basketball history -- at 52.8% from the field, 44.2% from 3 and 89.2% from the free-throw line.
There have been long stretches this season where Jalen Brunson has performed like one of the best players in the league. A savant with the ball in his hands with a throwback scoring kit, Brunson's office is the mid-range: Among all players taking at least four pull-up jumpers per game, he has the highest conversion rate. Brunson has also become a deadeye 3-point shooter at just under 41%. It is a painfully tough call between Brunson, Stephen Curry and Tyrese Haliburton. Curry has probably been the best of the three, but I believe the honeymoon factor of Brunson blowing past any and all expectations, and by extension the Knicks doing the same, gets him the nod.
Donovan Mitchell is having the best season of his career, and that's saying something for a guy who has been great from the moment he stepped in the league. In the absence of Darius Garland, Mitchell took ownership of Cleveland's creative department to the tune of a career-high 6.2 assists per game without compromising the elite scoring he always brings. One of six players averaging at least 28 points, five rebounds and five assists. The other five are Joel Embiid, Luka, Durant, SGA and Giannis.
This isn't going to be a popular stance to take, but Devin Booker is both better than Tatum and having a better season than Tatum. Booker averages more points, more assists, more free throws attempted and made, and he registers better shooting percentages across the board while being just as competitive a defender. The difference is Tatum is Boston's best player and Booker is Phoenix's second-best player, and the Suns have been pretty inconsistent. These narratives do matter. To the latter point, Booker might well fall to third team. Haliburton and Curry are candidates to replace him here.
Third team
Stephen Curry continues to play at an MVP level all things considered: 27.7 PPG and 41.4% on a hair south of 12 3-point attempts per game. In fact, Curry is on pace to break his own record of 402 3-pointers for the season, which he set in his unanimous MVP year of 2015-16. He has a 60-point game and six 40-point games, the latter of which is tied for third most in the league. The gravity Curry creates with his combination of shooting and unending movement remains the most disproportionate force in basketball; it's just that the Warriors no longer have the horses to take full and consistent advantage of the opportunities he creates.
Tyrese Haliburton vs. Jalen Brunson was the tough call for most of the season, and for All-Star starter, which Hali won out. Haliburton has trailed off now, but he remains among the best generators of offense in the league -- tops in assists and points created via assists. His scoring, again, has fallen since he came back from his injury, but the equity he has built up as the first half's breakout star combined with the good story of the Pacers overachieving all but assures him of at least a third-team spot. If he raises his game back up over the final month and change he could edge both Curry and Brunson for second team.
Another candidate for a second-team spot, Anthony Edwards basically is Minnesota's offense while also being an absolute beast of an on-ball defender. The rarest of skill-athleticism combos, Edwards is having by far his most efficient scoring season at over 119 per 100 shots, per CTG. The Timberwolves fall by over 10 points per 100 possessions when he sits. He's one of three players (Luka and SGA are the others) averaging 26-5-5-1 on 38% 3-point shooting.
Rudy Gobert is going to win Defensive Player of the Year as the anchor of the best defense in the league, which also happens to be the team battling for West's No. 1 seed. If we don't put him on an All-NBA team, we're just flat out saying we don't value one half of the court. Gobert isn't a nothing on offense, either. He's a rim roller, top-shelf screener and a monster offensive rebounder who ranks top five with 4.2 second-chance points per game. Give the man his due.
Anthony Davis has a second-team case as well, but I could also see him being left off All-NBA entirely. One could make the case his teammate, LeBron James, who is almost indistinguishable statistically, is actually the more valuable player to the Lakers, and the on-off numbers would support such a claim. But I think the voters will lean Davis, who has been absolutely dominant this season. He's a vicious interior scorer and probably the most talented defender in the world -- which is what separates him Domantas Sabonis for third-team honors. Davis is the only player in the league averaging 24-12-2-1. Nobody else is even close.
Still in the hunt ...
- Jaylen Brown
- Domantas Sabonis, Kings
- De'Aaron Fox, Kings
- James Harden, Clippers
- LeBron James, Lakers
- Paul George, Clippers
- Jamal Murray, Nuggets
- Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
- Tyrese Maxey, 76ers
