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Nine days ago, we took a look at the current betting market to put together a mock draft based solely on betting market logic -- that is, slotting in the favorites for specific picks in the top five and doing our best the rest of the way to align on draft position over/unders, the position of first pick drafted for each team in the first round and other props found at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today, we're making a final update to our betting market mock draft to see what has changed while also mixing in BetMGM and Caesars odds to help get a full picture of what sportsbooks are projecting with just over 24 hours left until Round 1 kicks off.
As always, things changed over the final days leading up to the draft, sometimes significantly. For starters, Mason Graham has gone from being the favorite to go No. 5 to the Jaguars to potentially no longer even being in the mix as Ashton Jeanty has moved into favorite status for the fifth pick. Jaxson Dart swung from being heavily favored to go Under 24.5 to -200 to go after the first 24 picks, and the slide appears to be on for Shedeur Sanders as well, with the quarterback who once was felt to be a top-10 lock now +280 to go in the first 10 picks at DraftKings.
Other perhaps less notable shifts include the second cornerback (behind Travis Hunter) tightening to close to neck-and-neck between Will Johnson and Jahdae Barron, with the latter going from a solid underdog to go inside the first 18 picks to -240 by Wednesday. The first tight end market has also tightened but not as considerably with Tyler Warren still a solid favorite to be the first off the board at around -400. Mike Green and Jihaad Campbell are two defenders initially expected to go in the teens who may be slipping, while Emeka Egbuka and Donovan Ezeiruaku both appear to be solidly in the first round at this point.
We'll take all that into account as we go through the first round and look at what the betting market as a whole believes will happen on Thursday night.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis on "With the First Pick" -- our NFL Draft podcast with analyst Ryan Wilson and former Titans general manager Ran Carthon. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen to the latest episode below!
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 2
Hunter had just shifted to being the favorite for this pick the weekend prior to our initial betting market mock, and he's now anywhere from -900 to -2000 to be taken second. If a team wants to trade up for him, they'll have to work out a deal with the Browns.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Despite some late noise suggesting Shedeur Sanders could be in play, the markets remain solidly locked in on Abdul Carter here, with the pass rusher -650 in most spots to be the pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Campbell was only around -160 to go fourth overall in our first market mock, but he now ranges from -420 to -700 to be the No. 4 pick. The only thing that appears could shake this up is a team trading ahead of the Jaguars to get a skill-position target.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Here's our first big change of the mock, with Jeanty in the -125 to -150 range for this pick where we saw Mason Graham nine days ago. Graham is still a solid second in odds for this pick, with Tetairoa McMillan down to the +450 range at multiple books after being available at +3000 at FanDuel less than a week ago.
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Mock Trade from
Las Vegas Raiders
Round 1 - Pick 6
Armand Membou is the favorite for this pick at two sites while Jeanty is still favored at the other two, but Membou is also pretty universally around -225 to go Over 6.5, which to me outweighs being around a +130 favorite to go here. Mason Graham is also still a heavy favorite across the board to go in the top 10 but a longshot for any specific pick from No. 6 through 10. We resolve the issue with a trade-up here by a DL-needy team to take Graham off the board, with the 49ers sending Nos. 11, 43 and 100 for Nos. 6 and 108.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
This was our match in the first mock, and while the No. 7 pick market is a bit scattered depending on what the previous two teams do, Membou is either the favorite, cofavorite or slight 'dog to be the pick here. Tyler Warren and Kelvin Banks are the other two consistent options at the top of the odds board on most sites, and I wouldn't rule out Mason Graham if he gets to this point either.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Unlike with the previous pick, Walker is the clear favorite in the now-established No. 8 pick market, with Caesars putting him at -120 and the other sites making him +115 to +130. Mykel Williams remains the consensus second option should Walker either be off the board or not be what the Panthers are looking for.
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Mock Trade from
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 9
Mykel Williams is now the favorite to go ninth across the board but at +200 to +380, it's anything but a lock to happen. Banks and Tyler Warren have shorter consensus odds than Williams to be a top-10 pick, so we should consider a team trading up with the Saints to get him. The Dolphins are favored to take an offensive lineman first, but there's generally thought to be a tier break after Banks, so they may need to move up in order to secure him. Here they give Nos. 13 and 48 to secure Nos. 9 and 93, an almost perfectly even trade in my draft pick value chart based on past trades.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
We previously engineered a trade to get Warren to the Colts based on them being the favorite to land him but Warren still favored to be a top-10 pick. Well, the team to draft Tyler Warren markets are taken down as of Wednesday morning, clearing the path to just stick him on the Bears as the consensus favorite to be the 10th pick, though those odds range from +310 to +380.
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Mock Trade from
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 11
The Raiders' position of first draft pick odds are a bit irrelevant after the trade down, as they didn't have access to the top RB with their initial pick and no longer have access to the top offensive lineman tier now. Receiver is a key need and there has been at least one report linking them to McMillan, whose floor appears to be the Cowboys at Under 12.5 (-186) at FanDuel. He's also one of the players with the shortest odds to be No. 6 still available along with Shedeur Sanders and the top two corners.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
The Cowboys are around -250 to take a receiver first and by far the most likely scenario is they end up with McMillan. Even if he's off the board, Golden is juiced to the Under on his draft position props, including Under 16.5 (-132) at FanDuel although there's no clear fit for him after this point.
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Mock Trade from
Miami Dolphins
Round 1 - Pick 13
The Saints still manage to land the player emerging as the favorite to go No. 9 after trading down, with Williams the first man out in our survey of the top-10 odds market. It's also on the table that they could go quarterback if they feel their preferred target won't be available in the second round.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
The Colts are favored to take a tight end first at even odds or slightly shorter in the market, and Loveland has strongly trended to hitting his Under at every book, including sitting at -260 to go Under 14.5 at FanDuel. The market considers this his floor and has a tier break after this, with other prospects in this range either juiced to their Over or not showing up on draft position props.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
The Falcons are -260 to -400 to go defensive lineman or edge rusher with their first pick, and Nolen is the highest projected player who does not have a draft position prop at our four surveyed sportsbooks. Since Shemar Stewart is a slight underdog to go Under 15.5 at FanDuel, it makes sense to take Nolen over him for the Falcons here.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 - Pick 16
The Cardinals are a rumored trade-down team, and this is about the range for Barron, who is strongly favored to go Under 18.5 at multiple books but a slight favorite to go Over 17.5 at FanDuel. The Packers are the team with the lowest odds to take a cornerback over the rest of the first round, so they send Nos. 23 and 87 along with a 2026 third-round pick for No. 16 and a 2026 fourth-round pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Bengals are in the -160 to -190 range to go defensive line/edge rusher first, and Stewart is a slight favorite to go Over 15.5 at FanDuel. It's possible the Bengals pass on him for an interior defensive lineman like Derrick Harmon, who has no draft position prop but is a near lock to go in Round 1, but if Stewart gets by edge-needy teams ahead of Cincy then it makes sense for him to be the pick here.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
We went with Zabel in our initial market mock and are sticking with him here now that he's up to -2000 to be a first-round pick, which is much shorter than the other first-round lock on the interior line in Tyler Booker. Seattle is around -125 to take an offensive lineman first, so it seems likely they'll take one of the guards with this pick if they don't trade down.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
We're going to keep Campbell in this spot from our first market mock as well even though there's some buzz he could slip, potentially out of the first round altogether. He's a strong favorite to go Over 18.5 at DraftKings but a slight favorite to go Under 19.5 at FanDuel, which is ultimately what allows him to stay in this slot for us.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
There's speculation the Broncos could trade up, but with Hampton -300 to go Over 19.5 at Caesars and DraftKings but -190 to go Under 20.5 at FanDuel, this is the market's landing spot for him ultimately. My play would be to take the +134 on Over 20.5 at FanDuel in the hopes Denver trades up for someone else (Matthew Golden?) or even takes Trayveon Henderson ahead of Hampton.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Sanders' stock has fallen and he's a massive favorite to go outside the top 10 picks at this point, but FanDuel is listing him at -168 to go Under 21.5, which makes him the pick here. The Steelers are also the favorites to draft Sanders among the books who have that prop listed.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
The Chargers are favored to go defensive lineman/edge first at around +130 across the market, and Grant is -275 to go Under 23.5 at Caesars, so this is a clear match even before you get to Grant playing for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan.
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Mock Trade from
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 23
The Cardinals are favored to go DL/edge first as well at around +140, though they are picking in a different part of the first round after the earlier trade with Green Bay. Harmon is considered a near lock to go in the first round at -1600, and this is a good time to slot him in as a pick for Arizona or potentially the Packers if they don't trade up.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 24
Booker is -240 to go Under 24.5 at FanDuel, and the Vikings should be a team looking to trade down as they have just four total picks in the draft and none after this until No. 97. So the Chiefs package Nos. 31 and 95 to get up to this spot for their new left guard and Minnesota gets an extra Day 2 pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Simmons is still -900 to go in the first round and the Texans are massive favorites to go with an offensive lineman first, so this is a pretty safe connection to make as well as a trendy pick in mock drafts in general.
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Mock Trade from
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 26
Egbuka is -130 to go Under 26.5 at FanDuel, so we're looking for a team to trade up to land him. The Jaguars are a great fit as Egbuka would complement Brian Thomas Jr. perfectly, and the team has plenty of resources to make a move with 10 total picks. Here it only costs a move down from No. 70 to No. 127 in order to secure the jump from No. 36 to No. 26 for Egbuka.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Green is one of two players with a draft position over/under of 17.5 juiced to the Over, and he's fallen further than expected as we make the pieces of the puzzle fit in other ways prior to this pick. He'd be a great value for the Ravens at this spot.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
The Lions are massive favorites to go defensive lineman or edge rusher first, and Ezeiruaku is -500 to go in the first round, so this is a good landing spot for the Boston College product.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Johnson seems to be a player who could land anywhere in the first round and it wouldn't be much of a surprise, but FanDuel has him at -152 to go Over 17.5 and we've had priorities at other positions until this point. The Commanders are favored to go DL/edge first but we're at the point where the value at other positions is too great to ignore, and both corner and safety are among their next options along with offensive lineman.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Again, the Bills are favored to go DL/edge first but the value on the board at other positions is too great to ignore, with Emmanwori set as high as -1350 to be a first-round pick but also sitting at -160 to go Over 23.5 at FanDuel.
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Mock Trade from
Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1 - Pick 31
Starks is projected to go around the Vikings' initial pick with Over 24.5 juiced slightly at FanDuel. He's also our last big priority to get in the first round at -1000 at DraftKings. if Minnesota can trade back in the first round and still get one of the top two safeties, it should be considered a win.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 32
The Eagles are always open for business when it comes to trading in the draft, and they're in an enviable position here with Dart, who is -134 to go Over 25.5 at FanDuel, still available and three QB-needy teams picking early in Round 2. The Giants are favored to land Dart at FanDuel and Caesars, but it seems unlikely Philly would deliver a potential franchise QB to a division rival. The Saints trading Nos. 40 and 93 is enough to get them to No. 32 on the chart, but it's possible the Eagles can squeeze a little more out in a competitive market.
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The 2025 NFL Draft is to take place from April 24-26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
