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The Dallas Mavericks had less than a 2% chance of winning Monday's NBA Draft Lottery and yet that is exactly what happened.
That wasn't the only surprise at the top of the draft though as San Antonio now has an interesting choice to make at No. 2 that could have domino effects while Philadelphia and Charlotte also landed in the top four.
Here's a look at my post-lottery mock draft.
NBA Draft Lottery winners and losers: Mavericks' win fuels conspiracy theories, Spurs and 76ers also move up
Brad Botkin
Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
The narrative has now changed in Dallas and Nico Harrison has been saved. Cooper Flagg is not only good enough to help Dallas win now (because when you're building around two 30+ players that's clearly the plan), but he can grow into being the face of the franchise in the future. He also fits the two-way mentality that Harrison has preached about and should embody everything they say they want to build with.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Harper is the No. 2 player on my board and so I am mocking him here to the Spurs, but I do expect they will take a long look at Ace Bailey, who may be a better positional fit on a team that drafted Stephon Castle and traded for De'Aaron Fox within the last year. If they decide that Harper is their guy, then the question becomes whether or not that leads to anything on the trade market.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Bailey is a jumbo wing, high-level athlete, and tough shot-maker. If everything clicks in the right way, you could make a case for him having the highest upside in the draft. The problem is there's a wide-range of potential outcomes as he has to answer questions about his passing, rim pressure, and overall impact on winning. He gives the Sixers a terrific long-term asset and does nothing to compromise their ability to compete now if they get healthy.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
This would be a seamless fit. Edgecombe is one of the best athletes and competitors in this draft. He also has a chance to blossom into one of the best on-ball defenders, so he could help protect LaMelo Ball on that end of the floor. Conversely, his downhill rim pressure would also be very valuable alongside Ball and Brandon Miller, while their collective skill would protect him.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
This wasn't the outcome they wanted, but Johnson's shot-making and scoring prowess could still be a nice fit next to the playmaking and passing of last year's first-round pick Isaiah Collier. With Keyonte George looking less like a long-term starter, the hope is that this pairing could give Utah their backcourt of the future.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The Wizards have drafted a variety of young assets in recent years with Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, AJ Johnson and others. What they don't have is a point guard to run that team of the future. Jakucionis could give them that with his positional size, feel for the game, and long-term shooting potential.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
The Pelicans are a franchise in the midst of extreme uncertainty as Joe Dumars arrives to take over their front office. Knueppel has one of the highest floors in this draft because he's skilled, smart, strong, and able to share the ball with other highly talented players. Being better than expected defensively doesn't hurt either.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Queen is a playmaking big who creates mismatches with his ability to put the ball on the floor and pass for his size. With soft natural touch and elite hands, if the shooting ever catches up, he has high upside outcomes. He may not be winning any athletic contests, but that's why a pairing with Nic Claxton could make sense.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Maluach has a 7-foot-6 wingspan, is mobile and athletic for his size, a massive lob threat, rim-runner and a developing shot-blocker. The Raptors have quite a bit of committed salary in the next few years and for all the pieces they've recently invested in, his archetype is one that is missing and fits the emphasis on length and athleticism that Masai Ujuri has historically been known for.
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From
Phoenix Suns
Round 1 - Pick 10
This feels a bit high for a guy who averaged 6 points and 4 rebounds per game, but Bryant also shot 46% on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, defended everything from point guards to forwards, and is still just 19 years old. Shooting is a requisite around Amen Thompson and Alperen Sengun, so Bryant makes sense as a big 3-and-D prospect.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Fears is a high-upside playmaking lead guard and while he likely won't be ready to play right away, he could provide a long-term contingency plan should Portland ever reach the conclusion that the backcourt experiment of Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe just hasn't gelled the way they hoped they might.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Murray-Boyles is long, strong, very smart, and impactful on both ends of the floor, even if he's closer to an undersized five-man who doesn't yet space the floor. With Nikola Vucevic headed into a contract year, and big potential shooters like Jalen Smith and Matas Buzelis at the forward/wing spots, this could be a fit.
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From
Sacramento Kings
Round 1 - Pick 13
This year's Mr. March Madness played his way into lottery consideration, not because he led Florida to a national championship, but because he showed different elements of his game and a higher upside while doing it. He's an extreme shot-maker and good scorer with on/off ball versatility and defensive potential, if not yet a consistent approach.
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From
Atlanta Hawks
Round 1 - Pick 14
The Spurs are one team smart enough to see past the 32% McNeeley shot from behind the arc last season as he was thrust into a starring role by necessity. He's a vastly better shooter than that and could provide some much-needed floor spacing around Wemby while also checking boxes for his overall basketball IQ and competitiveness.
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From
Miami Heat
Round 1 - Pick 15
Clifford is an athletic wing who thinks the game at a high-level and can also really pass the ball. If the shooting gains we've seen recently prove to be sustainable, then he looks poised to evolve into a 3-and-D wing with some secondary playmaking on top. Even OKC, a team flush with young assets, could use one of those.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Richardson is a southpaw combo-guard who combined efficiency with versatility this year. He played both on and off the ball and proved he was a shot-maker at multiple levels, not to mention a sneaky good finisher for someone still building up his body. He's not nearly the 6-foot-3 that Michigan State listed him at, but could still solidify Orlando's backcourt depth and perimeter spacing.
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From
Detroit Pistons
Round 1 - Pick 17
With Naz Reid and Julius Randle both having player options on their contracts this summer, it may be challenging for Minnesota to keep both long-term. If that's the case, they could use some additional frontcourt depth. Newell provides a high-energy and mobile big who can split time between the four and the five. If the shooting ever clicks, this would be terrific value.
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From
Memphis Grizzlies
Round 1 - Pick 18
Wolf is a highly skilled big who handles and passes well enough that he was Michigan's primary initiator for significant stretches this season. If the shooting catches up he would be an ideal complement next to Sarr, who could also help protect him on the defensive end of the floor.
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From
Milwaukee Bucks
Round 1 - Pick 19
 
Nolan Traore
PG
France
• 6'4"
/ 175 lbs
Traore came into the draft cycle viewed as a potential top-five pick and while his stock dipped during the course of the season, he's playing his best basketball as of late with Saint-Quentin. He has extreme speed and playmaking ability, but is also showing some recent gains with his shooting that are very encouraging.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Fleming has all the makings of an effective role player with his length, power, athleticism, mobility and high motor. He can change the game defensively and also stretch the floor offensively. He would not only fit Miami's culture but also make a nice frontcourt trio with Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
 
Joan Beringer
C
France
• 6'11"
/ 235 lbs
For all the young assets that Utah has drafted in recent seasons, Beringer would fit a hole with extreme athleticism at five. He's very young, and won't turn 19 until next November, but his archetype – as a rim-running, shot-blocking, lob threat – consistently hits, especially when you add his mobility and terrific hands.
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From
Los Angeles Lakers
Round 1 - Pick 22
Demin may be the best passer in the draft and has terrific perimeter size to match. He's got to figure out what position he can defend and prove he's a reliable spot-up shooter, but next to a ball dominant shot-making/scoring guard like Trae Young he would make a lot of sense…at least offensively.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
 
Noa Essengue
PF
France
• 6'10"
/ 200 lbs
Essengue is big, mobile, athletic, and young. In fact, he won't turn 19 until next December, but we've seen notable growth in recent months for Ratiopharm Ulm, in Germany. Indiana may need some more immediate reinforcements up front, depending on how things go in free agency, but Essengue is a nice long-term asset.
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From
Los Angeles Clippers
Round 1 - Pick 24
 
Ben Saraf
PG
Israel
• 6'5"
/ 200 lbs
Saraf is a big, playmaking lefty guard and one of the most creative passers off the dribble in the draft. OKC may not have room for this archetype after drafting Nikola Topic last year, but Saraf is the best available prospect on my board at this point so I wouldn't be surprised to see OKC take him and then manage their assets accordingly.
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From
Denver Nuggets
Round 1 - Pick 25
Sorber exceeded all expectations this year and measured with a huge 7-foot-6 wingspan, but is limited in his pre-draft work because of injury and not a prototypical fit in modern NBA offenses. The progression of his shooting is a critical long-term variable. If it hits, he could theoretically help open the lane for the likes of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.
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From
New York Knicks
Round 1 - Pick 26
Noah Penda
SF
France
• 6'8"
/ 225 lbs
Penda is a long and strong forward who looks like a versatile blend player. He's a heady team defender who has shown flashes of versatility on that end and equally good feel offensively. He may never be an alpha, but he's a multi-dimensional building block who can likely earn minutes in a variety of different types of line-ups.
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From
Houston Rockets
Round 1 - Pick 27
With four first-round picks, it only makes sense that Brooklyn will take some swings for the future and then find others who can play immediate minutes. Kalkbrenner is the latter as a defensive quarterback and drop coverage monster whose sheer size and quality hands make him serviceable offensively in a specific niche.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
A competitive and instinctive combo-guard with on-ff ball versatility, Philon seems like he would be a good fit with head coach Joe Mazzulla. The three-point shooting may not be quite where Boston would like it ideally, but the same was true at Alabama and he still made himself a critical two-way part of their attack.
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From
Cleveland Cavaliers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Riley is likely not NBA ready, but Phoenix is in a position where they just need to start accumulating some long-term assets and Riley is that. He's multi-positional with good perimeter size and flashes of shot-making and playmaking alike. It's a swing, but at this point in the draft, it's worth it.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Pettiford is a very fringe first-round pick, and given the uncertainty that comes with that, coupled by the NIL market, he may be better off going back to college. He's undersized but skilled, explosive, fearless, and capable of scoring in bunches.
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