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2026 NFL mock draft: Version 1.0 from expert has 5 first-round QBs even with Arch Manning returning to Texas
Keep an eye on these prospects
By
Ryan Wilson
•
2 min read
In recent years, I released my way-too-early mock draft literally moments after the conclusion of the current draft. In almost every way, it was more of a watchlist than your typical mock draft, mostly because I hadn't had the time to actually watch and grade players for the upcoming draft cycle. (Aside from those draft-eligible ones who opted to return to school, though realistically, that ends up being around 20-25 names, and maybe only a handful who I might consider top-50 players some 11 months out.)
This time, however, I decided to put off my way-too-early mock draft for a few weeks, which gave me time to watch around 125 players and get a sense for what the 2026 class could look like. And while I'd still refer to this as more watchlist than mock draft, I feel way more comfortable with where I have these players slotted based on their 2024 (and sometimes 2023) tape.
Like every other year in human civilization, the conversation starts with the quarterback. And, yes, Arch Manning is QB1 in the 2026 class. But instead of just penciling his name at the top of the page and worrying about the subsequent 31 picks, I'm working from the assumption that Manning will be at Texas in 2025 and again in 2026. History suggests he may not be in a rush to leave college for the NFL, and barring, say, a Heisman Trophy and a national title, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Manning to hang around Austin for a couple more years.
And look, if he does decide to declare after the 2025 season, he'll likely be QB1 and probably the top overall player in the class, too. That's an easy update.
Plus, without Manning, the QB class gets a lot more interesting. Garrett Nussmeier can be really, really good. So good, in fact, that he'll look like LSU Joe Burrow. But he also had stretches in 2024 where he looked like down-on-his-luck-in-New England Mac Jones. Which Nuss Bus are you getting? That's the No. 1 overall question.
Then there's a group of names who could separate themselves with big seasons: Drew Allar, Cade Klubnik, Fernando Mendoza and LaNorris Sellers all could be in the conversation for top five picks. Penn State's Allar considered coming out in 2024 and he probably would've been a first-rounder; Klubnik made big strides down the stretch for Clemson and returning was in his best interests; Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana for 2025 and his tape was impressive; and then there's Sellers, who is the best athlete of the bunch, has a huge arm, and every SEC edge rusher we talked to at the NFL Scouting Combine couldn't say enough good things about him. Sellers does need to continue to grow as a passer, but if things click this season, he'll be among the first players selected.
So, sure, consider this a watchlist if you like. Or, if you prefer, it can be a mock draft. Ultimately, it's 33 names to know (I had the Jets trade up to No. 32 to grab a QB, and in the spirit of fairness, I also included a pick for the Eagles, who traded out of the first round in this scenario) some two-and-a-half months out from the return of college football.
The 2026 NFL Draft order was determined using the reverse Super Bowl odds from FanDuel Sportsbook
Regrading 2022 NFL Draft: Chiefs, Packers' classes look even greater; Commanders' high mark plummets to 'F'
Pete Prisco
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
It's not hard to see that Nussmeier is a coach's son -- he plays like a grizzled NFL veteran and when he's on it's pretty easy to see LSU Joe Burrow. The issues arise when Nuss Bus tries to do too much -- and that was something of a theme as the '24 season progressed and LSU Joe Burrow turned into New England Mac Jones. If Nussmeier can limit the poor decisions and untimely turnovers, he'll have a great chance to be the No. 1 overall pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
At 6-foot-7, 369 pounds, Proctor has an enormous frame and wingspan, but he's also a good athlete who plays with power and surprising agility both as a run blocker and in pass protection.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Parker looks long frame on tape (think James Pearce Jr.). He wins with both speed and power, is stout at the point vs. offensive tackles and is a high-motor, high-end athlete who is just going into Year 3. He is consistently disruptive.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Technician in both pass protection and against the run. Played in primarily zone scheme and fit it perfectly because of mix of athleticism and power. Technically sound run blocker who wins with power/balance.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Woods plays with leverage, power and a low center of gravity. Flashes strong hands and can toss offensive linemen off-balance and shed blocks quickly to fill gaps and get to the ball-carrier.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Downs has not been overhyped this summer -- he's just that good. I really liked Malaki Starks last draft cycle, and I have Downs graded higher. In terms of on-field athleticism, I think Downs is closer to Nick Emmanwori than Starks.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Road grader/earth mover in the run game with enormous size and insane athleticism for that size. He plays with an edge and is better vs. the run than in pass protection right now, but well above average in both departments.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Allar might have been a first-round pick had he declared for the 2024 draft. He looks the part physically; he just needs to continue to make strides. We all saw glimpses of his first-round talent at various points last season, and if he can put it altogether in '25, he could go from first-round lock to battling Nussmeier (and perhaps Arch, should he declare) to be QB1.
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From
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 - Pick 9
Bowling ball who can line up anywhere from 3T to 9T -- think Ed Oliver meets Jared Verse. One of the best edge rushers when it comes to inside counters. Plays with low center of gravity, which makes up for lack of elite bend. Bain is good vs. both run and pass and is only going into his true junior season in '25.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Williams was targeted 103 times in '24, and while he had eight drops, he consistently wins off the line of scrimmage vs. physical corners, can get open at all three levels and has legit separation ability. He can play outside, in the slot and has punt-return ability.
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From
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 11
Rivers can play inside or in the slot, he's a physical player despite his size and he is consistently in the right place. Reminds me of Max Hairston in his style of play/size/ferocity. He plays the run like he's an old-school middle linebacker: he will get off blocks, come downhill with his hair on fire and look to lay the ball-carrier out. He has a nose for the ball and for making big plays.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Plus-athlete who uses his hands well, anchors well against the bull rush and consistently moves defensive ends off the spot.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Overton has a thick frame and plays with violent hands; he's able to disengage quickly from blocks and can rag-doll interior OL to the ground on his way to the ball-carrier. He can win with a powerful bull rush but doesn't have an array of pass-rush moves beyond that. He is surprisingly bendy for his size but doesn't consistently win with speed. He's better vs. the run than as a pass rusher right now, but there is a lot to like.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Pocket passer but not a statue; he buys time with subtle pocket movements, excels off-platform and when needed, can stride out in open field. Will get through reads while hanging in a pocket closing in around him. Consistently played with pressure in his face, yet consistently stood tall in the pocket and delivered strikes to all three levels on time and accurately. Ball consistently comes out on time and with touch/accuracy to all three levels. Good feel for pocket pressure, can climb with eyes downfield and deliver accurately off-platform.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Plays with track speed and has high-end acceleration. Can stop on a dime and redirect with rare change of direction. Plays with good contact balance and has the footwork to jump-cut to avoid defenders and hit the crease. Not asked to do a lot in the pass game but flashes ability there, too.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
Boston has a huge catch radius, soft hands and surprising YAC wiggle. He's a smooth route runner who flashes urgency out of his breaks, is an asset in the screen game because he has the ability to win in small areas and can run through arm tackles anywhere on the field.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
Sapp is an plus-run defender because of power, leverage and the low base he plays with. He has heavy hands that allow him to disengage from blocks quickly and be disruptive. As a pass rusher, he can overwhelm offensive linemen with sheer power and consistently collapse the pocket.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
High-motor, high-end athlete who excels vs. the run, the pass and as a pass rusher.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Long-legged, long-armed big slot who moves like a much smaller nickel. Long-strider with legit makeup speed who is also a thumper when coming downhill in run support.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
Has NFL bloodlines -- his brother is former first-round pick A.J. Terrell. Avieon plays bigger than his listed size (see his matchup with former Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor). He can stay in phase on vertical routes and has good ball skills -- he will try to bait the QB into making throws. In run support, he plays outside CB like he's a strong safety.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
A special teams standout, Sadiq is a versatile athlete who was used at QB on four extra points in '24; twice threw TDs on rollout plays (and he's also run fake punts from the upback position). As a TE, he runs extremely well, will run through arm tackles and is used all over the formation. He can be a quick-game target as an outside WR and was also used effectively on jet sweeps. He reminds me of Kadarius Toney in the quick game and Anquan Boldin in space with the ball in his hands.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Physical corner who can play man on an island and is also comfortable in zone looks. Consistently good at staying in phase on vertical routes, and in run support he comes downhill with purpose looking to thump someone. Might be the best CB in the class vs. go routes.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Unofficially listed at 240 pounds, so you'd like to see if he could add 10 pounds to his frame. That said, better vs. the run than Donovan Ezeiruaku and might be a better, more explosive pass rusher. He can win with speed (including an incredible first step) or power, and makes plays all over the field.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
World might play with the best balance of any offensive tackle in recent memory; he's not the athlete Josh Conerly Jr. was coming into the draft, but he's athletic enough. In terms of summer draft grades, I have him in the same range as Kelvin Banks Jr. heading into his '24 season.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Plays corner like an in-the-box safety or linebacker. Lines up everywhere from outside CB to slot to Tampa 2 LB to QB spy. Plays like he's shot out of a cannon vs. quick game and in run support where he's a no-YAC tackling machine. Might be the best CB tackler in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Undersized and twitchy with short-area quickness to win in small areas. Anderson will consistently create separation from the slot vs. off coverage, and he has an extra gear in the open field. Legit track speed on go routes, and he can run the entire route tree, though he will have the occasional focus drop.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Klubnik got better as the '24 season progressed. While he's not the biggest QB, he has a big arm and is one of the best deep-ball passers in this class. Good athlete who can win with his feet, he throws accurately to all three levels. If he continues to progress, he'll be a first-rounder next April.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Thickly built long-strider who can redirect and get to the ball like a much smaller player. Right now he's better vs. the run than as a pass rusher -- he lacks an array of pass-rush moves outside of a bull rush. That said, he plays with good balance, will fight through blocks and plays through the whistle to get to the QB.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Despite his size, Perkins can win with his bull rush vs. offensive tackles and force a re-anchor; he also works hard to get off blocks and get to the QB. Insane athleticism, short-area quickness and twitch; creates problems for bigger/slower OTs when he's coming off the edge. He has legit closing speed coming downhill.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Next-level athleticism, Singleton can contort his body into any form to position himself for the catch, and he plays with a big catch radius for his size. He has track speed out of the blocks and into the second and third levels and hits top end in 1-2 steps. Explosive is the best way to describe his game -- he can stress defenses at all three levels.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Missed all but one game in '24 because of quad injury; only saw one target, no catches. That said, in 2023, he set an Oklahoma record for TD receptions by a freshman with 10. Anderson is a big, physical X receiver who can play through contact. He tracks deep balls well on go routes, and he consistently stacks CBs. He's a YAC machine who plays with great contact balance and will drag defenders downfield -- he's almost like a RB with ball in his hands; if you need 2-3 yards, he'll get them.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 32
Thick, physical, athlete who can win with his feet and also has a huge arm ... Sellers is just incredibly raw. That said, there was a reason that every SEC edge rusher I spoke to at the combine earlier this year described Sellers as the toughest QB they faced. I got "Baby Cam (Newton)" a lot as a descriptor, and when you watch Sellers play, it's easy to see why. He does a lot of things really well; he just needs to play with more consistency, which will come with experience. He has the talent to be the No. 1 player in most draft classes.
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Mock Trade from
New York Jets
Round 2 - Pick 37
Can line up anywhere along the defensive line, plays with active hands and low pad level, and is disruptive vs. both run and pass.
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