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We're just a few days away from the most unpredictable draft I can remember since the 2020 year when no one knew what the hell was going on.
Despite that unpredictability, I developed some irrational confidence about how the top two, top three, top five picks would go as the weeks rolled along. They mostly align with the consensus, which is usually not a great thing when it comes to the draft.
But in a draft that seemingly lacks Gold Jacket guys (and we'll need a decade-plus to determine how accurate that sentiment is), the answers may be plainly in front of you.
It has been repeated throughout this pre-draft process that this is a great year to trade back. The problem with that is someone has to want to trade up, and then both teams have to agree on the compensation. If the entire market wants to trade down, you can assume the price will be lower than it typically is. Will GMs be willing to take a value less than what their chart dictates? Will they understand this draft — like all other drafts — is an entity all to itself?
That's something I'm keeping in mind in the upcoming week, especially where it concerns new GMs. The Jaguars, Raiders and Jets are picking No. 5-7 and all have new men in charge. It's possible, if not likely, one of them will be the first team to trade back, and the rest of a reactive league will be able to copy off their paper when it comes to the value of a trade back.
Will a new GM — someone who has dreamed for decades of finally being in this chair — be willing to potentially take less compensation than in previous years to execute a trade-back in the top-10?
Here's my one and only mock for the 2025 NFL draft.
You may notice there's no Shedeur Sanders — or any quarterback of any name other than Cam Ward — in this mock. Sanders could be the next rookie Giants quarterback at No. 3, as I write below. Or he could be a target in the late-first or early-second rounds like other quarterbacks, as referenced in here.
For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with analyst Ryan Wilson. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
This one has been known for more than a month. The Titans didn't make a play for a legitimate QB in free agency because they were already locked in on Ward. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Tennessee deal Will Levis at some point before training camp, and I would expect them to add a pass rusher and/or receiver on Day 2.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
The Browns are saying they'll play him at receiver more than corner, which Hunter must love considering the payday coming his way in three years if he plays the position well. Yes, they need a quarterback, but after Ward goes to Tennessee, they weren't getting a signal caller at No. 2. They'll have to settle for the top player on the board.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Big Blue has done nearly two years of homework on Shedeur Sanders and a crash course this week on everyone else. I can't rule out a QB at No. 3 here, but I don't think that's what happens. The Giants take the draft's best pass rusher and solidify that front for years to come.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
Even if Carter is available here, I still think the Pats take an offensive tackle here. Campbell appears to be the pick. The arm length doesn't seem to be a factor, especially since the pre-draft measurements were all over the place and he's closer to 33 inches anyway.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
The Wolverine has a championship pedigree and wrestling background that will fit perfectly in what the new Jags regime is trying to build. Graham fits an obvious need for Jacksonville, even if he doesn't have the desired length inside.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
The longer the wait for the draft, the more nit-picking goes on about top players. Jeanty isn't the perfect running back prospect to be taken in the top-10, but he's a home-run hitter who can change a game. The Raiders need more play-makers, and they'll figure out their corner issue somewhere this weekend
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Round 1 - Pick 7
This pick is all about maximizing Justin Fields. You could convince me this will be Tyler Warren here, especially after the Jets missed out on Brock Bowers last year, and I wouldn't bat an eye. Many around the league see Campbell and Membou as equals.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Mocks have the Panthers taking Walker and for good reason. One executive told me he's "Roquan Smith with a lot more pass rush." This defense needs some dudes and Walker is a dude.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Some view him as a guard due to his length, but I think it's more because he's such a solid run-blocker. Barely 21 years old and 6-foot-5, he can grow as a pass blocker. Whether he sticks at tackle or guard, New Orleans gets position versatility here.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Chicago has to worry that New Orleans could get Warren here (or trade back and let someone else get him), but the sit patiently and get the tight end. The Bears already have Cole Kmet, but a move like this isn't unprecedented. The Eagles drafted Dallas Goedert after Zach Ertz's fifth season in the league to ensure they had the position locked down for a decade-plus.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Nolen's talent is undeniable, but there are several teams who wouldn't take him this high. It could be a risky pick, but it fits an obvious need for San Francisco and Nolen can mature his entire game with the Niners.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
The Cowboys could go any number of directions here, including pass rusher, but I'm not sure they'll be able to resist adding a receiver with their first pick. Dallas watched the Texas (and Houston) product crush the win-or-go-home games down the stretch last season and then saw him run a 4.29.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Multiple sources have indicated Simmons' knee looks great upon medical rechecks, so he passes there. His play is a good scheme fit for Miami too. Many believe there's a chance he could have been OT1 in this draft. I know some teams also wouldn't take him this high, but Miami takes a chance on a position of need.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Nearly every year Chris Ballard has one of the tallest teams in all of football, so why not add the 6-foot-5 tight end to the mix? Indy lost Kylen Granson in free agency and needs all the weapons it can get to make sure the Colts make the right decision at quarterback.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
The Falcons have the fewest sacks in the entire NFL since 2018, so that must change with their first-round pick. At this point in the mock, Pearce has to be the best pure pass rusher on their board, with 17 1/2 sacks in the past two seasons along with three forced fumbles.
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Mock Trade from
Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 - Pick 16
If the Colts hadn't spent so many recent draft resources on receivers, McMillan would be in Indy. Seattle knows Cards GM Monti Ossenfort loves to trade back, and Seattle has the capital to move up a couple picks with the division rival to get a much-needed receiver.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Bengals could go defensive line or linebacker here, but there's clearly a need along the offensive line and you probably won't get anywhere near the player Booker is later in the draft. An earlier version of this mock had Booker going No. 25, and after more calls last week I realized he shouldn't be there then.
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Mock Trade from
Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 - Pick 18
He's long and strong and not even 21 years old yet. In reality, Arizona may not mess around and trade back with him on the board, but this is my mock. And for a third year in a row they use a top-41 pick on a pass rusher.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
The Bucs tried to get a corner in free agency and missed out on their top targets. After Hunter, Johnson is the top cornerback in this draft but slips because of a lack of speed. Tampa Bay is just fine with that.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
This pairing seems to obvious to me and the rest of the NFL that the Broncos may actually have to trade up to make sure they get the guy everyone believes they'll take. Denver's made no secret of needing a running back, and the Tar Heel is clearly the best available here.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
If you're waiting for a QB to be drafted here, keep waiting. Cam Heyward doesn't have many years left and Pittsburgh needs interior defensive line help. Grant is remarkably athletic for his size.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
The draft can be cruel, and that's seen above where Pittsburgh takes a Michigan man just before Jim Harbaugh is on the clock. No matter, the Chargers eye a pass rusher in Stewart, who is always around the quarterback but never finishing (which is what causes him to fall in this mock.) The Bolts need some youth at pass rush, and they'll coach up Stewart to get the sacks.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
I had one coach call Barron the "best defensive back in the draft," meaning he could ultimately play a number of positions in the span of his career. It seems extremely unlikely Jaire Alexander is back with the Pack, so nabbing Barron here makes a lot of sense.
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Mock Trade from
Minnesota Vikings
Round 1 - Pick 24
The Vikings have just four picks in this draft, and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has never been shy about trading in his division. Here, the Bears use one of their second-round picks to nab the South Carolina safety who may not even be available by pick No. 24 but surely won't be there when the deep-playoff teams from last year begin selecting. Bears continue a very aggressive offseason with two first-round trade-ups!
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Round 1 - Pick 25
This is usually around the time a center gets taken in the draft, but the Texans could use Zabel as a center or guard moving forward. Houston's offseason plan has been to add a couple linemen in the draft, and they start early with the versatile interior lineman.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
As much as I would love to send L.A. a quarterback here, there are simply greater needs for the championship-window Rams and the value is off the charts. It's possible Campbell goes to Cincy or Tampa in the teens, and I think the Rams would be quite pleased to get the Alabama backer right here. I'm told his recovery from shoulder surgery is going well and there shouldn't be concerns for his 2025 availability.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Here's a guy who has shot up boards because of how well he's handled the entire pre-draft process. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year could deliver similar sack production in Baltimore in a way that's desperately needed there.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Detroit obviously needs an edge rusher, but great teams keep their strengths strong. Conerly has a great athletic background that showed in his pre-draft testing, and Dan Campbell will love how much he loves ball.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 29
Washington scoots back just to 35 to let the Titans come up and get the receiver. Tennessee gets Cam Ward a slot target with great run-after-the-catch ability whose talent is that of a player getting picked in the teens.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
There are a few positions the Bills could go here, and trading back is definitely in the cards. Most teams have Hairston at a tick below Johnson and Barron but above the next crop of corners. The Tre White signing from last week hardly precludes the Bills from doing business at that position here.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Kansas City needs offensive linemen, and it's better to get one here than wait and hope for one in the 60s. Aireontae Ersery is tantalizing here (in part because he's a local), but the Chiefs also need a lineman with some versatility. Jackson showed he can play guard and tackle at the highest level last season for the Buckeyes.
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Mock Trade from
Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 - Pick 32
Howie Roseman is always willing to make a deal, and he slides back five spots here. The Raiders have to get pass catchers, and they'd be stoked if a pro's pro like Egbuka is here waiting for them.
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The 2025 NFL Draft will take place from April 24 to 26 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including daily mock drafts, consensus prospect rankings, biggest team needs and more.
