NFL teams likely to fall short of projected 2025 win total: Mike Tomlin-led Steelers face first losing season

A look at which teams are most likely to disappoint in the win/loss column

With the player acquisition portion of the NFL offseason in the rearview mirror, organized team activities kicking off around the league and training camps seemingly just around the corner, it's time for everyone to turn the page. We're at the point in the offseason where "this season" now refers to 2025, rather than 2024.

And because that's the case, we're going to do some prognosticating around these parts. We're taking a look at what we can expect from each NFL team this season, from a whole host of different angles.

One of the ways we want to do that is by trying to peg some teams down on either side of their over/under win totals. We're using the lines at FanDuel sportsbook and, in the space below, identifying five teams most likely to come up short of their number.

Cleveland Browns 

Over/Under 5.5

Here's what I wrote last week about Cleveland's over/under: "The Browns do not have a quarterback. They also have the second-toughest strength of schedule in the league, based on opponent over/unders. They are going to be really, really bad. They should be in the mix for a top-three pick, and it would be shocking if they got to six wins." 

I see no real reason to have changed my tune.

New Orleans Saints

Over/Under 5.5

The Saints, much like the Browns, seemingly do not have a quarterback. They're giving offseason reps to each of Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and second-round rookie Tyler Shough. This is a team that went 5-12 last year and did not score more than 19 points in any of its six games following the Week 12 bye, and the only notable offensive additions were Shough and first-rounder Kelvin Banks, who should help up front but doesn't make the line into a strength all by himself. Add in some of the aging pieces on defense and it's not hard to see the Saints collapsing even further than they did a year ago.

Indianapolis Colts

Over/Under 7.5

You might be sensing a theme here, folks. The Colts have two quarterbacks, and as Bill Parcells once said, if you have two quarterbacks, you have none. That might be especially true when your quarterbacks are Anthony Richardson (who completed just 47.7% of his passes last season) and Daniel Jones (who is Daniel Jones). The Colts are counting on defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward to lift a defense that finished last season 29th in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. Yet unless that defense gets to solidly above average, it's hard to see the Colts being good enough to overcome what should be a below-average offense.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Over/Under 8.5

Here's what I wrote about the Steelers last week: 

"The Steelers, similarly, do not have a quarterback. Even if you want to say their quarterback will be Aaron Rodgers, well, Aaron Rodgers just led the Jets to a 5-12 record with an offense that ranked 24th in both yards and points, as well as a mere 18th in expected points added per play. It's not like he nets you a top-10 offense through his mere presence anymore. And if you want to say their quarterback will not be Aaron Rodgers, well, that's a pretty significant problem because their other options are, to be kind, not good. Pittsburgh also has one of the 10 toughest schedules in the league, complete with games against the Bills, Ravens, Lions and Ravens again in the final six weeks of the season. I know Mike Tomlin has never finished under .500, but between the offensive questions, the schedule and more questions than usual on the second level of the defense, this feels like the first time the Steelers finally dip below the line."   

With Rodgers only delaying further and with his off-field habits seemingly only making it less likely that an organization like the Steelers would want to make him the face of the operation, this is starting to creep toward best-bet territory.

Miami Dolphins

Over/Under 8.5

The Dolphins finished 8-9 last season and their point-differential supports that number. They seem to be in a very combustible situation right now with the Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey drama hanging over the team, and both the coaching staff and front office seemingly on the hot seat heading into the year. Whether they end up moving Ramsey or not, they have a very suspect secondary and it could become even more so if he's dealt. And it doesn't seem like the front is good enough to make that not matter. The offense has been good whenever Tua Tagovailoa is under center, but he remains an injury risk and if Hill is either suspended, traded or simply on the decline, that would have a dramatic effect on things. This is a team that could take a step or two backward.

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Josh Edwards

An NFC West team

Seahawks: Over/Under 7.5
Cardinals: Over/Under 8.5
Rams: Over/Under 9.5
49ers: Over/Under 10.5

It doesn't feel like every one of these teams can go over the number, and there are reasons to think each of them have a chance to come up short. 

• The Seahawks are depending heavily on getting the version of Sam Darnold we saw for most of last season before he fell apart at the end of the year, and still has a shaky offensive line. 
• The Cardinals did almost nothing to upgrade an offense that fell shy of expectations last season, and are banking on a whole lot of defensive improvement. 
• The Rams are building their offense around a pair of guys in their mid-30s and a young star who has been extremely injury prone and the defense, while good, is still young and may not progress as expected. 
• While the 49ers have the league's easiest scheduled based on opponent over/unders, they have lost a whole lot of talent over the last several years and have multiple important players coming back from serious injuries who may not be at full strength. 

Those are obviously the bear cases for each of those teams and there are just as good of reasons to think they can exceed expectations, but there is a high likelihood that one or more of these teams is going to disappoint in 2025.