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USATSI

I called Saquon Barkley a bust candidate in Busts 1.0, which was done prior to free agency and the NFL Draft, and I'm going to mention it again here. Barkley is the first-round pick who worries me the most this season.

Last year, Barkley was the No. 1 running back at 22.2 PPR points per game, and he will likely be drafted in the first three overall picks this season -- even at No. 1 overall. I'll rank him as a first-round player, but I expect his production to decline in 2025. 

He had 345 carries for 2,005 yards and 13 touchdowns and 33 catches for 278 yards and two touchdowns on 43 targets in the regular season. Tack on 91 carries for 499 yards and five touchdowns and 13 catches for 75 yards on 15 targets in the playoffs, and we're talking about a lot of mileage (436 carries and 482 total touches) for a 28-year-old running back. 

Along with that, the history of 2,000-yard rushers the following season isn't ideal. Of the eight who have previously accomplished this feat in NFL history -- O.J. Simpson (1973), Eric Dickerson (1984), Barry Sanders (1997), Terrell Davis (1998), Jamal Lewis (2003), Chris Johnson (2009), Adrian Peterson (2012) and Derrick Henry (2020) -- two suffered serious injuries the next season in Davis and Henry. All of them declined in production by at least 562 rushing yards, with six of them dropping 871 rushing yards or more. 

As you can see, I have strong reasons why Barkley makes me nervous, and I don't expect to draft him much this season. I still expect him to be a standout Fantasy option, but his production should decline from his amazing season in 2024.

Now, here are eight other players who I plan to pass on in my Fantasy leagues this season unless the price is right.

Breece Hall

I had Hall as a breakout candidate in Breakouts 1.0, but that was before new Jets coach Aaron Glenn spoke at the NFL Owners Meeting in March. Glenn made headlines when he said that Hall is one of three running backs that the team wants to "utilize as much as possible," including Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Now, I don't expect Hall, Allen and Davis to split touches evenly, and Hall should still be the lead running back. But he might not dominate the workload, and the addition of quarterback Justin Fields is also problematic. Fields isn't going to enhance Hall's work in the passing game, and Fields will steal rushing touchdowns. Hall averaged 15.1 PPR points per game last season, and he struggled down the stretch with four games of 10.5 PPR points or less in his final nine outings. I'm worried we could see similar production at that level a lot this year, and the earliest I would draft Hall is Round 4 in the majority of leagues.

Alvin Kamara

Now that Derek Carr has retired due to concerns over his shoulder, the Saints offense could be terrible. We might get rookie Tyler Shough or second-year Spencer Rattler at quarterback, and finding the end zone could be an issue in New Orleans all season. Kamara can still get by with his role in the passing game, and he has at least 68 receptions in each of the past two seasons. But Kendre Miller and Devin Neal could eat into Kamara's workload, and new coach Kellen Moore might not want to run Kamara into the ground, especially since he turns 30 in July. He also missed three games at the end of last season due to a groin injury. Kamara remains a No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, with his value higher in PPR, but he should not be drafted until the end of Round 4 at the earliest given his risks this year.

James Conner

I'm repeating Conner as a bust candidate here from Busts 1.0 because I've seen him get selected in Round 4 in several of the mock drafts I've done already. That's too soon. Conner was fantastic in 2024, and he averaged 15.9 PPR points per game. He set career highs in carries (236) and rushing yards (1,094) while adding eight rushing touchdowns, along with 47 catches, 414 yards and two touchdowns on 55 targets. He also played a career-best 16 games. But Conner turned 30 in May, and that's a concern, especially given his injury history. Prior to 2024, he had missed at least three games in five of the previous six seasons. It's great that the Cardinals gave him a two-year, $19 million extension in November, and hopefully he doesn't get injured next season. Second-year running back Trey Benson could be more of a factor in 2025, and Conner's ADP will likely determine if I'll totally avoid him or not. But the earliest I would draft Conner is Round 5, and it appears like he will be selected sooner than that this season, which is a potential mistake.

Aaron Jones

Jones is another repeat customer from Busts 1.0, and things got worse for him since then. He turned 30 in December, and Minnesota coach Kevin O'Connell said he wants to give Jones less work this year. "For the better part of his career, he had kind of been a part of backfield committees, but for the most part, Aaron Jones was the feature back," O'Connell told SiriusXM. "So I would love to have Aaron back. And then we just continue to grow in that room, whether it's infusing a young player in the draft or maybe another player in free agency alongside Aaron Jones, hopefully." Jones set career highs in touches (306), carries (255) and offensive snaps (700) in his first season with the Vikings. He played all 18 games with the playoffs, even while nursing hip, rib and quadriceps injuries, and had the most rushing yards (1,138) and second-most yards from scrimmage (1,546) in his career. He averaged 14.7 PPR points per game. It was great, but I'm skeptical of him repeating that performance in 2025, especially with Minnesota's addition of Jordan Mason after what O'Connell said. I view Jones as a flex option, and the earliest I would draft him is Round 6 in the majority of leagues.

Tyreek Hill

I'm hopeful that Hill will bounce back from last year's disaster when he played through a wrist injury and dealt with Tua Tagovailoa missing six games. But Hill is 31, just had his second surgery on his wrist in May and there continues to be trade speculation, even though it appears likely he will remain in Miami. In 2024, Hill was among the biggest busts when he averaged 12.8 PPR points per game, which was his lowest total since his rookie season in 2016. The Dolphins offense changed with more designed plays to get the ball out of Tagovailoa's hand quicker, and Hill went from 171 targets in 2023 to 123 targets in 2024. Fantasy managers appear willing to forget all of this and are drafting Hill in Round 2. It's not a bad gamble if he bounces back since he averaged at least 20.1 PPR points in each of his first two seasons with the Dolphins. But given his age and most recent performance, I'm skeptical, and you also have to worry about Tagovailoa missing time again. You might be better off drafting Hill in Round 3 or later in most leagues.

Mike Evans

I had Evans in Busts 1.0, and I'm more worried about him now. The addition of first-round rookie Emeka Egbuka could be bad for Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, but Evans will be the first one drafted in the majority of leagues. He just had another outstanding season in 2024 at 17.2 PPR points per game. It was his 11th season in a row with at least 1,000 receiving yards (1,004), and he scored double digits in touchdowns (11) for the sixth time in his career. But he turns 32 in August, and we could finally start to see Evans fail to deliver on his consistent production. Keep in mind that he missed four games in 2024 with an injured hamstring, and now there's significant competition for targets. Last season, before Godwin went out with an ankle injury in Week 7, Evans was averaging just 14.3 PPR points per game. That's solid production, but it's not elite. And Evans will likely be drafted in the first three rounds in the majority of leagues. If that's his ADP then I will pass on Evans in 2025.

Zay Flowers

I love Flowers as a talent, and he could be a Fantasy star based on potential, especially entering his third season in the NFL. But playing on the Ravens is not going to enhance his Fantasy upside unless something dramatically changes in 2025. For the past two seasons, Flowers has averaged 12.9 and 12.3 PPR points per game. That's quality production, but he was the No. 34 PPR receiver in 2024. He had 116 targets for 74 catches, 1,059 yards and four touchdowns, and Baltimore just added DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, kept Mark Andrews and remains committed to Derrick Henry. Lamar Jackson doesn't need to pepper one receiver with targets to be an MVP candidate, and Fantasy managers should treat Flowers as just a standout No. 3 receiver. Instead, he continues to get drafted as a starter in two-receiver leagues, and that's a mistake. The earliest I would draft Flowers is Round 6 in most formats.

Chris Olave

There was a report that the Steelers had interest in trading for Olave, but the Saints plan to keep him. And New Orleans picked up his fifth-year option in April. Now, I hope they feature Olave like a true No. 1 receiver, and hopefully he can stay healthy as well after being limited to eight games in 2024 due to multiple concussions. Last season, Rashid Shaheed had more targets (34) than Olave (28) through the first five games of the season, which was troubling. There's a new coaching staff in place with Kellen Moore, and that should be a plus for Olave. But the negative is the quarterback situation with Derek Carr (shoulder) now retired. Rookie Tyler Shough or second-year Spencer Rattler are the likely candidates at quarterback for the Saints heading into training camp, and that could be disastrous for Olave. I still like him as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, but the earliest I would draft him is at the end of Round 6. I expect he will come off the board sooner than that, which could be a mistake.