How good will first-round WRs be in Year 1? Predictions, odds and best bets for Travis Hunter and others

A first-round rookie wide receiver has surpassed at least 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons

In six consecutive years, there has been at least one rookie wide receiver with at least 1,000 receiving yards. There were four taken in the first round of April's draft. Could one of those players continue the streak?

In an effort to project statistical output for Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Matthew Golden, CBSSports.com reflects upon wide receivers drafted in the first round and how they performed during their respective rookie campaigns.

Most receiving yards by first-round rookie WR (since 2015)

Rank	Player	Draft year	Pick (Team)	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD
1	Ja'Marr Chase	2021	No. 5 (Bengals)	81	128	1,455	13
2	Justin Jefferson	2020	No. 22 (Vikings)	88	125	1,400	7
3	Brian Thomas Jr.	2024	No. 23 (Jaguars)	87	133	1,282	10
4	Malik Nabers	2024	No. 6 (Giants)	109	170	1,204	7
5	Garrett Wilson	2022	No. 10 (Jets)	83	147	1,103	4
6	Amari Cooper	2015	No. 4 (Raiders)	72	130	1,070	6
7	Chris Olave	2022	No. 11 (Saints)	72	119	1,042	4
8	CeeDee Lamb	2020	No. 17 (Cowboys)	74	111	935	5
9	Jordan Addison	2023	No. 23 (Vikings)	70	108	911	10
10	Marvin Harrison Jr.	2024	No. 4 (Cardinals)	62	116	885	8

Before diving into projections for Hunter and others, there were some interesting takeaways when compiling raw data for every first-round rookie wide receiver over the past 10 years. For example, the "hit rate" has been better over the past five years compared to the first five years. In other words, there have been more difference-makers. All eight of the receivers drafted in the top-10 overall in the past five drafts had at least 100 targets during their rookie season, while only 24 wide receivers had at least 100 targets during their rookie season dating back to 2015. 

So, what does this mean for Hunter and other rookie receivers in 2025?

Travis Hunter (No. 2 overall)

• Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +1000 ($10 to win $100)

First and foremost, the usage of Hunter has to be discussed. Early understanding is that the ex-Colorado Buffalo will be a full-time offensive player with the outlook on defense being unknown. If he is used full-time on both sides of the ball, that could take a toll on his offensive output over the course of the season. 

The average statistical production for a wide receiver drafted top-10 overall over the past 10 drafts is as follows: 63.75 receptions on 109 targets for 825.5 yards and 4.67 touchdowns. (That would rank No. 32 in most receiving yards by a rookie over the past 10 years. Those are reasonable expectations to place upon the Colorado product, but most, including Hunter himself, would probably be disappointed with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards given the pre-draft narrative surrounding the player.

As of writing this, the odds for Hunter to eclipse 800 receiving yards is +125 at DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds are evermore in your favor the bolder you become. Those odds are more appealing than the touchdown numbers, which can also be found at DraftKings. (New users can activate $300 in bonus bets upon winning your first $5 bet.) Our fine friends covering fantasy football at CBSSports.com project 66 receptions on 99 targets for 972 yards and five touchdowns for Hunter -- a leading figure among rookie wide receivers.

Puka Nacua and Jordan Addison are a few to come through offensive systems similar to the one Jacksonville is expected to deploy under first-year head coach Liam Coen. Nacua set the rookie record for targets and receptions (both broken last year), as well as receiving yards. 

Brian Thomas Jr. should be considered the Jaguars' No. 1 wideout going into the season, but there is ample room for opportunities opposite him in the pass game. Last year's second leading wide receiver, Parker Washington, finished with 32 receptions for 390 yards and three touchdowns. There were only two clear examples of teammates topping 1,000 receiving yards last season: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams with the Lions and Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers with the Raiders. Davante Adams did top 1,000 receiving yards, but he spent time with two teams (Raiders and Jets).

• Travis Hunter best bet: 900+ receiving yards (+230)

Tetairoa McMillan (No. 8 overall)

• Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +1500

Adam Thielen will turn 35 years old prior to the upcoming season, so he is not the future of the position in Carolina (a tough pill to swallow for this particular writer of a similar age.) Last year's first-round pick, Xavier Legette, had a good season, but the hope is that McMillan becomes the primary target for ascending quarterback Bryce Young. 

If that vision comes to fruition, McMillan should have a good chance to exceed the averages of a top-10 pick over the past 10 years. McMillan has odds of -110 to record at least 800 receiving yards and +350 to surpass 1,000. The California native is third among rookie wide receiver projections at CBSSports with 61 receptions on 99 targets for 763 yards and four touchdowns.

Tetairoa McMillan best bet: 5+ receiving touchdowns (-110)

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Emeka Egbuka (No. 19 overall)

• Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +5000

The average season for a wide receiver taken in the first round, but outside of the top-10 overall, over the past 10 years has been 43.38 receptions on 71.13 targets for 584.63 yards and 3.56 touchdowns. 

The depth at the position in Tampa Bay complicates the projection a bit. General manager Jason Licht recently acknowledged that he expects Chris Godwin to be available Week 1 after suffering a severe ankle injury midway through the 2024 season, which means Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, Godwin and Egbuka should all be available for the entirety -- or at the very least the majority -- of the season, which could constrict Egbuka's targets. The Ohio State product is projected to finish with 49 receptions on 79 targets for 676 yards and four touchdowns, per CBSSports.com.

One comparable situation in recent memory could be Chicago last season. The Bears had DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, as well as tight end Cole Kmet, when they drafted Rome Odunze. Odunze managed 54 receptions on 101 targets for 734 yards and three touchdowns.

Matthew Golden (No. 23 overall)

• Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +2500

A lot of Egbuka's situation also applies to Golden. There are a lot of mouths to feed in that Green Bay offense. Four pass catchers had at least 600 receiving yards, excluding wide receiver Dontayvion Wicks and running back Josh Jacobs. One would imagine at least one of the three receivers going into the final year of their rookie contract (Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and Wicks) will be moved prior to the season. 

Unlike Egbuka, I personally feel as though there is a possibility Golden becomes the primary outlet for Jordan Love, which would allow him to beat the average. Golden is projected to record 49 receptions on 80 targets for 821 yards and five touchdowns, per CBSSports.com.