What a difference a year makes. At this time last offseason we were talking about the Jets' Super Bowl expectations with Aaron Rodgers. After he tore his Achilles on the fourth play of the 2023 NFL season, the conversation is more like: Can Rodgers even stay on the field in 2024?
The Jets' overhauled offensive line will play a large role in making fans' dreams a reality. Then maybe we can start talking about the Jets ending their long playoff drought, or even contending for a championship.
Their offensive line was in shambles last season after it was a big talking point in the offseason. The Jets had 13 different starters, the most in the league. They also ranked bottom five in pressures (280), hits (129) and sacks allowed (64).
There's no way the Jets can keep a 40-year Rodgers healthy coming off a torn Achilles with that type of O-line production.
Jets offensive line last season
| Jets O-line (2023) | NFL Rank | |
|---|---|---|
Different starters | 13 | Most |
Sacks allowed | 64 | Tied for third most |
Hits allowed | 129 | Third most |
Pressures allowed | 280 | Fourth most |
Some of those numbers will naturally come down with a quarterback like Rodgers, who gets rid of the ball quickly, as opposed to the Jets 2023 quarterback group. But this number is really telling, and shows that New York's poor O-line numbers weren't merely a product of quarterbacks holding onto the ball too long and inviting pressure.
The Jets ranked 30th in ESPN's pass block win rate metric last year. They use NFL Next Gen Stats technology to track how often a team's offensive line holds up for 2.5 seconds, roughly the average time for a quarterback to pass. If even one pass rusher breaks through the line within that time frame it's a loss for the offensive line. Well, the Jets pass rush win rate was 50%. It was a coin flip whether they'd hold up for their quarterback on any given play.
You can see why general manager Joe Douglas made it a priority to overhaul the group. Here's what the Jets did:
- March 13: Traded for Ravens RT Morgan Moses
- March 14: Signed Ravens OG John Simpson to two-year deal
- March 18: Signed Cowboys LT Tyron Smith to a one-year deal
- April 25: Drafted OT Olu Fashanu in first round
That's three new starters between Moses, Smith and Simpson, plus Fashanu can fill in if (and when) Smith gets hurt. The Jets' first-round pick was especially telling, as they opted to take OT Fashanu over TE Brock Bowers.
Reporting from ESPN's Jeremy Fowler illustrates where the Jets priorities were: "The sense around the league is the Jets were pretty set on Penn State tackle Olu Fashanu at No. 10 overall ... unless Washington receiver Rome Odunze was available," Fowler says. "The people I've talked to believe the Jets would have jumped at Odunze, though they correctly figured Chicago was taking him there. Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was a consideration for the Jets, but not a major one."
In the end, the Jets enter offseason workouts with a much better offensive line than last year, especially at offensive tackle. Tyron Smith had the best pass block grade among all OTs last season, according to Pro Football Focus. He replaces Mekhi Becton, who was below average last year, on the left side. Smith has only played 45 percent of games in the last four seasons, which is why Fashanu is a very nice insurance policy. He had the fourth-best pass block grade among offensive tackles in college football last year.
Morgan Moses was an above average right tackle last year (whether you look at PFF's grades or ESPN's win rates) and represents a big jump up from the Jets' right tackle committee from 2023, which included subpar play from Max Mitchell, Carter Warren, Billy Turner, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Becton.
The Jets O-line was among the biggest needs for any team this offseason. Remember, Rodgers played behind some great units in Green Bay. The Packers ranked in the top half of the NFL in pass blocking by PFF in 13 straight seasons from 2010-22, including top seven in each of his last nine years there.
The Jets are now in a position to compete at a higher level in the trenches in 2024. It's critical as Rodgers obviously isn't a spry chicken anymore and his declining numbers against pressure in recent years show it. From 2021-22, he ranked third in EPA per play when NOT pressured, but 25th when he is pressured. That's a Jekyll and Hyde act similar to turning Josh Allen into Mac Jones in terms of caliber of play.
Aaron Rodgers from 2021-22
| No pressure | Pressure | |
|---|---|---|
Comp Pct. | 73% | 48% |
Yards per attempt | 7.8 | 5.5 |
TD-INT | 51-9 | 12-7 |
EPA per play rank | 3rd | 25th |
Keeping Rodgers upright would also go a long way to getting his new supporting cast involved. We still haven't seen what Rodgers and Garrett Wilson are capable of together. Plus, the Jets brought in former Chargers wideout Mike Williams and drafted Malachi Corley in the third round. Corley led the NFL in yards after catch in the last two years and should be a nice complement to Wilson and Williams on the outside.
A lot of stars need to align for the Jets to realize the Super Bowl expectations most had for them in 2023. It all starts with the health of Aaron Rodgers, followed by the performance of the offensive line.
The last eight Super Bowl champions all ranked in the top half of the league in pass block grade. That type of production has to be the goal in New York.
