The 2016-17 NHL season was packed with thrills. It featured a Penguins team that became the first repeat champions of the salary-cap era, plus a fresh crop of players who emerged as must-haves for Fantasy drafts this fall. However, by that same token, we saw several performances that were either deceiving or downright unrepeatable.
Here's a non-exhaustive list of guys who could slip precipitously in the upcoming campaign.
Marc-Andre Fleury, G, Vegas Golden Knights
With the Golden Knights making their debut in the upcoming season, they decided to make a splash by bringing on Fleury, a three-time Stanley Cup champion, to be their starting goalie and a face of the nascent franchise. But Fantasy owners must keep in mind that the 32-year-old is coming off a lackluster campaign that saw him post a 3.02 GAA and .909 save percentage -- those were among his worst peripherals in the past decade. In addition, his 18 wins represented the lowest total since his sophomore season, and Fleury swallowed his pride by giving way to rising star Matt Murray, who did most of the heavy lifting en route to that second consecutive Cup victory.
In Vegas, Fleury should struggle to compile wins with a relatively inexperienced and mediocre-looking defensive corps in front of him; the lone projected starting defenseman with a rating higher than plus-2 last season was ex-Capital Nate Schmidt, who only averaged 15:29 of ice time. While Fleury is not short on fans wishing him luck in Sin City -- especially now that he's reclaimed a starting role -- moving from the league's top franchise to one that can only hope to be taken seriously in its inaugural campaign will be perhaps the greatest challenge of his 13-year career.
Victor Hedman, D, Tampa Bay Lightning
Before you break out the pitchforks, let it be known that I view Hedman as an outstanding NHL defenseman -- perhaps one of the best power-play quarterbacks the league has to offer. That said, he may have played over his head this past season due to extraordinary circumstances. In 2016-17, Hedman crushed his previous career-high 55 points by posting a whopping 72 -- second only Brent Burns among NHL defensemen. So what was different? For starters, Tampa Bay went most of the season without its franchise player and perennial All-Star, Steven Stamkos. With Stamkos absent from the lineup, Hedman had to carry the scoring load -- including on the power play, where the rearguard put up nearly three times as many points as he had in the previous three seasons combined. Also, let's not forget about his unusually high 9.6 shooting percentage, which was a personal best and rivaled the rates of many forwards.
With Stamkos expected to return in 2017-18 and the arrivals of Dan Girardi and Mikhail Sergachev sure to even out the Lightning's blue-line composition, Hedman is bound to be cemented in the second tier of fantasy defensemen instead of hanging in the top echelon, which currently features Burns and Ottawa's Erik Karlsson.
Shayne Gostisbehere, D, Philadelphia Flyers
Gostisbehere burst onto the scene during his rookie season in 2015-16 with an eye-popping 17 goals and 46 points in just 64 games. While it would have been crazy to expect him to repeat that performance, considering his gaudy 11.2 shooting percentage, Ghost's 2016-17 follow-up (seven goals and 39 points on a 3.5 shooting percentage) was quite disappointing. Yes, hard luck factored into the reduced numbers, but perhaps more alarming was the confirmation of his defensive ineptitude. Gostisbehere's defending was a major liability for the Flyers last season -- as his minus-21 rating would suggest -- and consequently, he lost ice time in 5-on-5 situations and was even a healthy scratch five times; some fear that could have long-term ramifications in terms of his confidence.
Either way, if his defending doesn't improve, he could continue to lose even-strength playing time. The 2017-18 season will be a telling one for Gostisbehere, and it's possible that he'll bounce back, but this past season showed us that his game needs plenty of refinement before he can be billed as a fantasy superstar.
Anders Lee, C/LW, New York Islanders
Lee experienced a breakout 2016-17 campaign that saw him record new career highs in goals (34) and points (52). While Lee is undeniably talented, an encore performance may be a lot to ask of him, especially considering the state of the Islanders' roster this season. For one, the team acquired Jordan Eberle from Edmonton, and he should immediately step into a top-six role. In addition, Josh Ho-Sang is primed to emerge as a top offensive weapon; he very well could carve out a permanent top-six role if the hype surrounding him is to be believed. The 21-year-old winger even averaged 2:25 on the power play after coming up last season, meaning he could seriously cut into Lee's man-advantage minutes this season. If that wasn't enough, Lee tallied a career-high 17.8 shooting percentage last season -- a figure he won't likely repeat. He could make it up in assists, but the paltry 18 he accumulated last season don't inspire confidence.
Simply put, with more mouths to feed in Long Island this season, Lee may get lost in the crowd, and his numbers could suffer as a result. Don't reach.
Patrick Eaves, RW, Anaheim Ducks
In his 12th NHL season and at 32 years of age, Eaves delivered an out-of-nowhere career season in which he netted 32 goals and 51 points. For a younger player, that output would be an excellent sign, but for a veteran like Eaves, it's more like an anomaly. The journeyman fired 209 shots on goal in 2016-17, a huge improvement on his previous career high of 130. He also posted a respectable 15.3 shooting percentage, but this season's rate is more likely to regress to something resembling his career figure of 11.3 percent. Additionally, Eaves has been dogged by injuries throughout his career; he's never played in all 82 games of a season. He was close this year with 79 appearances, but then he had to miss the final 10 games of the Ducks' postseason run with a high-ankle sprain.
Eaves is considered among the power-play leaders in Anaheim, but his baby-faced teammates (e.g., Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg) have much more upside as fantasy options for the upcoming campaign.
Bobby Ryan, RW, Ottawa Senators
Ryan was a major contributor in Ottawa's run to the Eastern Conference finals, as his 15 points in 19 games were second on the club, trailing only Norris Trophy finalist Erik Karlsson. The postseason breakout represented a stark (and welcome) contrast to Ryan's regular-season output, as various injuries limited him to 25 points in 62 games. His poor play before the playoffs included a 16-game goal drought in November and December, not to mention an 11-game pointless skid immediately following his return from a broken finger. Overall, the winger's campaign mirrored a general downward trend that has plagued the back half of his career. After playing in all but one game and notching at least 57 points in each season from 2009-12, Ryan has not played a full 82-game season or broken that scoring barrier since. Additionally, the Senators are not a very forward-centric team -- they ranked 22nd in the league with 2.51 goals per game last season, and their leading scorer was Karlsson, a defenseman. The veteran winger's postseason heroics were a nostalgic reminder of how he used to be able to carry fantasy teams, but between chronic injuries and uninspired regular-season play, his best years appear to be behind him.
Jake Guentzel, LW, Pittsburgh Penguins
Guentzel impressed many during his rookie campaign by posting 16 goals and 17 assists over 40 regular-season games, numbers that would be near elite if projected over a full season. While he'll almost certainly put up new career highs by virtue of playing more games in 2017-18, there are reasons to temper expectations for the 22-year-old. For one, his shooting percentages in both phases of last season were unsustainable: he scored at a 19.8 percent clip during the regular season and followed that up by recording an absurd 25.0 mark during the playoffs. The goals will probably not come as easily for him this year, especially as teams watch more game film and learn how to defend against him. The Nebraska native also heavily benefited from being on a line with Sidney Crosby. If Crosby has to miss time due to injury -- which is a distinct possibility as his concussions and other maladies continue to pile up -- Guentzel's value could take a hit, and even if that doesn't transpire, it's not guaranteed that he'll stay on the superstar's line. Guentzel will likely be a solid fantasy contributor this season, but drafting him in the early rounds as a blind reaction to his fantastic rookie numbers could prove costly.
Alexander Steen, LW, St. Louis Blues
Steen posted a fourth consecutive 50-plus-point season in 2016-17 and even added some extra excitement by racking up seven points in 10 playoff contests despite playing on a broken foot. However, there's reason to believe that the Winnipeg native's days as a reliable fantasy contributor are over. Steen's yielded diminishing returns since posting a career-high 64 points in 2014-15 -- once a reliable 20-goal man, he's failed to crack that mark in the past two campaigns, and he's seen declines in his assists, shots on goal and power-play ice time as well. Additionally, his Corsi For Percentage hit a career low of 47.8 this past season, meaning his puck-possession skills have gotten sloppy as well. The 33-year-old's troubles with injuries is well documented -- he hasn't played 80-plus games since 2008-09 -- and that could start to be a problem for him as St. Louis brings in younger help. Vladimir Sobotka returned from the KHL for the Blues' playoff run and immediately made an impact by recording six points in 11 games, while the team also added capable a scoring pivots in Brayden Schenn during the offseason. Steen's fading skills and inability to stay healthy could lead to decreased ice time and a corresponding drop in scoring opportunities.
