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The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the upcoming All-Star break and all 30 teams will hope to land their next franchise player, or at least a quality starting pitcher or everyday position player. All-Stars will undoubtedly be selected. Maybe an MVP or Cy Young. Maybe even multiple MVPs and Cy Youngs. If you can't dream big on draft day, when can you?

The Nationals won the draft lottery in December and hold the No. 1 pick for the third time in franchise history. Their previous two No. 1 picks worked out quite well: Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and Bryce Harper in 2010. Strasburg was a linchpin of Washington's 2019 World Series team. Harper won an MVP with the Nationals and is one of the best players in franchise history.

With the draft only a few days away on July 13, let's go back and look at the last 10 No. 1 overall picks, and see where those players are now and evaluate those decisions with the benefit of hindsight. Come with me, won't you?

2015: Dansby Swanson, Diamondbacks

Arizona selected Swanson out of Vanderbilt and traded him to the Braves in a disastrous move only six months later. It was the first year with the new rule that allows drafted players to be traded six months after signing their first professional contract. That rule came about after Trea Turner was stuck in limbo for six months as a player to be named later one season earlier.

Here is the trade:

Miller went to the All-Star Game in 2015 and immediately lost effectiveness with the D-backs in 2016. He was a non-factor (minus-2.5 WAR) with multiple teams from 2016-22 before resurfacing as a reliever in 2023. Blair didn't amount to much, but Inciarte won three Gold Gloves in six seasons with Atlanta, and Swanson was a good-to-great player in parts of seven seasons for the Braves. He hit a two-run home run and fielded the final out in the team's 2021 World Series clincher.

Now 31, Swanson is in the third year of the seven-year, $177 million contract he signed with the Cubs in December 2022. He has been an above-average player more than a truly great player in his career, but landing someone who turns into an above-average player at a premium position for a decade-plus is a major win on draft day. Too bad the D-backs essentially gave Swanson away in the Miller trade. That deal was the beginning of the end of the GM Dave Stewart era in Arizona.

Swanson is one of three players to be selected No. 1 overall and then get traded before making his MLB debut. The Mets used the No. 1 pick on Shawn Abner in 1984, then traded him to Padres in the big Kevin Mitchell/Kevin McReynolds trade in December 1986. The Marlins took Adrián González with the No. 1 selection in 2000 and traded him to the Rangers for Ugueth Urbina at the 2003 deadline. Urbina helped the Marlins win the World Series later that year.

Was this the right pick? Swanson has had a terrific career and was considered worthy of the No. 1 pick in 2015. In hindsight though, Alex Bregman (No. 2 to Astros) or Kyle Tucker (No. 5 to Astros) would have been the way to go. Houston held two of the top five picks in 2015 because they failed to sign No. 1 pick Brady Aiken in 2014, and received the No. 2 pick in 2015 as compensation.

2016: Mickey Moniak, Phillies

Moniak passed the eye test at his Southern California high school. He was a scout's dream. Athletic, sweet lefty swing, speedy, good outfield instincts, the works. Moniak was a consensus top-five prospect going into the 2016 draft and the Phillies took him with the No. 1 overall pick. Things went south pretty quickly. Moniak hit .236/.284/.341 in Single-A in 2017 as the poor approach that has held him back throughout his career came to light. By 2018, he was off Baseball America's top 100 prospects list. Moniak finally made his MLB debut with Philadelphia in September 2020. He was traded to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard at the 2022 deadline, had some ups and downs in Anaheim, and is now with the Rockies. Still only 27, Moniak is a fourth or fifth outfielder type.

Was this the right pick? Nope. To be fair to the Phillies, the 2016 draft was not good. The first five picks have combined for minus-0.2 WAR with Ian Anderson's 3.1 WAR propping up the group. Will Smith (the catcher, not the pitcher) has been the best pick of the first round by a mile, though Cole Ragans is making a late charge. Pete Alonso leads the draft class in WAR, ever so slightly ahead of Smith, Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes, and Zac Gallen. Smith is the only first rounder among those players.

2017: Royce Lewis, Twins

Similar to Moniak, Lewis was a darling in the Southern California prep ranks. He checked every box: good bat, good defense, good athlete, good makeup. Coming up through the minors, performance was rarely an issue for Lewis, who was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game in 2019. He's missed an awful lot of time with injuries though, including tearing his right ACL twice. Lewis made his big-league debut with the Twins in May 2022 and has had some incredible highs, most notably hitting .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in only 58 games in 2023. He has been unable to get back to that level though, and continues to have injury trouble. Still only 26, Lewis is Minnesota's starting third baseman.

Was this the right pick? Enough time and enough injuries have passed that we can say no, right? The most impactful player selected in the first round in 2016 was the pick immediately after Lewis: Hunter Greene. The Reds took him with the No. 2 pick and he's developed into a difference-making starter (when healthy). MacKenzie Gore, who is coming into his own this year, was the No. 3 pick. Lewis is young enough and talented enough to change this. He can still be a very good player.

2018: Casey Mize, Tigers

A monster junior year at Auburn made Mize the clear-cut No. 1 prospect going into the 2018 draft. He had some shoulder trouble in the minors but was still able to reach MLB in 2020, two years after being drafted. Mize had a strong first full season in 2021 (3.71 ERA and 3.4 WAR in 30 starts), though the UCL monster came for him the next year and he had Tommy John surgery. Now fully healthy, Mize is having a great season for Detroit and looks like the frontline starter he was expected to be on draft day. He's an important member of the AL Central-leading Tigers.

Was this the right pick? With the benefit of hindsight, we can say Logan Gilbert (No. 14 to Mariners) would have been the way to go if the Tigers were determined to take a college starter. Actually, no. Tarik Skubal would have been the pick. No one expected Skubal, a ninth-round selection, to become this though, so I'm OK giving Seattle a pass. Cal Raleigh. Brendan Donovan, Jarren Duran, Nico Hoerner, Steven Kwan, and Jeremy Peña are the other notable players drafted this year. To answer the question, no, Mize was not the right pick based on what we know now.

2019: Adley Rutschman, Orioles

At the time of the 2019 draft, Rutschman looked like the best draft prospect since Bryce Harper in 2010, and the best catching prospect since Buster Posey in 2008. He slashed .411/.575/.751 with 17 homers and twice as many walks (76) as strikeouts (38) at Oregon State his draft year, and won the Golden Spikes Award as the best amateur player in the country. A switch-hitting catcher with power, plate discipline, and strong defensive chops is a drool-worthy prospect.

Rutschman was a no-brainer for the No. 1 pick. The O's took him, and after the pandemic and a triceps injury delayed his MLB debut, he arrived in May 2022 and has been a mainstay since. He's a two-time All-Star and he's received MVP votes in two seasons. Rutschman's performance has backslid a little bit since his debut though. He's not quite the hitter or the defender he was in 2022, which isn't to say he's a bad player. Rutschman has settled in as more of an above-average catcher than as the best catcher in baseball, which was the expectation (perhaps unfairly) when Baltimore took him with the No. 1 selection.

Was this the right pick? As good as Rutschman is, no. The Royals selected Bobby Witt Jr. with the No. 2 pick and he's a bona fide superstar, one of the sport's most dynamic players. Rutschman doesn't even lead O's 2019 draft picks in career WAR. Gunnar Henderson, their second rounder, has that honor. There is plenty of time for Rutschman to change the narrative. Given what we know right now, in July 2025, you have to say passing on Witt was the wrong move.

2020: Spencer Torkelson, Tigers

Everything about 2020 was awful and that includes the MLB draft. Colleges played about two months before the pandemic shut everything down, high school players less than that, so teams lacked information leading up to the draft. Torkelson entered the year as the favorite to go No. 1 overall and nothing he did in his 17 games with Arizona State before the shutdown scared anyone away: .340/.598/.780 with six homers, 31 walks, and 15 strikeouts. The Tigers stuck with the status quo and used the No. 1 pick on Torkelson, who reached the majors in 2022 and slugged 31 home runs in 2023. He then struggled so much that he was demoted to Triple-A in 2024, and the Tigers more or less pushed him out of the picture when they signed Gleyber Torres and shifted Colt Keith to first base this past offseason. Torkelson had a very strong start to this season though, and played his way back into the mix.

Was this the right pick? Even with this year's success, it's a no. Garrett Crochet (No. 11 to White Sox) has been the best player drafted in 2020, though Pete Crow-Armstrong is beginning to give him a run for his money, and Spencer Strider was electric before his latest elbow surgery derailed things.

2021: Henry Davis, Pirates

The top of the 2021 draft class was not terribly exciting. There was no slam dunk No. 1 pick like Harper or Rutschman. Pittsburgh opted for the portfolio approach, meaning they used the No. 1 pick to take Davis earlier than expected, and signed him to a below-slot bonus. The No. 1 pick had an $8.4 million slot value that year. Davis signed for $6.5 million. The Pirates used the savings to grab higher-upside players later in the draft. Most notably, they nabbed top prospect Bubba Chandler in the third round, and paid him a $3 million bonus. Chandler's slot was less than $800,000.

That isn't to say that Davis had no business going high in the 2021 draft. He was viewed as a likely top-10 pick and probably a top-five pick. Vanderbilt righties Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker were the most famous prospects that year. Davis was not out of place being picked high in the first round. It just hasn't worked out at all. Davis debuted in June 2023 and, four years after being drafted, is running a career OPS around .600. Perhaps he'll figure things out and be a solid or better player. Clearly though, Davis is well south of expectations four years after being the No. 1 pick.

Was this the right pick? That's gonna be a no. Jackson Merrill (No. 27 to Padres) would be the No. 1 pick if you could give the Pirates a do-over. Colton Cowser, Tanner Bibee, Sal Frelick, Spencer Schwellenbach, Bryan Woo, and James Wood are the other notable big leaguers drafted in 2021.

2022: Jackson Holliday, Orioles

Holliday was not even the most famous second-generation player heading into the 2022 draft. Druw Jones, Andruw's son, was viewed as a better prospect most of that spring. The O's went with Holliday, who was not out of place as the No. 1 pick, and a year later he emerged as the game's top prospect. That will happen when you hit .323/.422/.499 and reach Triple-A as a 19-year-old middle infielder in your first professional season. Holliday got to the big leagues in April 2024, less than two years after being drafted, which is a meteoric rise for a high school pick. Things have not come quite as easily for him in MLB, though Holliday has been very good recently and is beginning to find his way at the highest level.

Was this the right pick? We're in TBD territory now. By WAR, Zach Neto has been the best player drafted in 2022 by a mile, and that is largely due to him reaching the big leagues before anyone else. He debuted in April 2023. I suspect there are more than a few people who prefer Roman Anthony to Holliday among 2022 draft picks.

2023: Paul Skenes, Pirates

It seems silly now, but there were legitimate questions about Skenes going into the 2023 draft. His fastball, despite touching triple digits on the regular, underwhelmed some teams because the pitch data (spin, movement, etc.) was not great. Undeterred, the Pirates took Skenes over more heralded draft prospects like Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford. He added a sinker in the minors that erased concerns about his fastball shape, and became an instant ace. Skenes has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball since being called up last May. Teams dream of the No. 1 pick working out this well, this quickly. 

Was this the right pick? Yup. The battle for the No. 2 pick behind Skenes would come down to Langford, Jacob Wilson, Twins prospect Walker Jenkins, and Tigers prospect Max Clark.

2024: Travis Bazzana, Guardians

Another one of those draft classes without a clear-cut No. 1 prospect, the Guardians went with Bazzana following an absurd draft year at Oregon State: .407/.568/.911 with 28 homers in only 60 games. He is currently in Double-A and sidelined with an oblique injury, otherwise there's a non-zero chance he would be in Cleveland already. 

Was this the right pick? TBD. Several 2024 draft picks (Jac Caglianone, Nick Kurtz, Cam Smith) have already reached the big leagues, but none of these guys have a full professional season under their belt yet. If the 2024 draft was held again today, I suspect Reds righty Chase Burns would be the No. 1 pick. Cincinnati took him No. 2 overall.