malik-nabers-new-york-giants-usatsi-2.jpg
USATSI

After centuries of debate, the brightest Fantasy Football minds in the world met at the Bürgenstock Resort on Lake Lucerne in Switzerland where, over fine wine and brie, they determined that the best definition of a "breakout candidate" was someone who could have a career-best season.

Or it was possibly one Fantasy Football guy sitting alone in his kitchen with a bowl of oven-baked oat bran cereal one fine morning when he figured out the best way to call someone a breakout.

Either way, you get the point. Breakout players are the stars who you already know who go on to have the best year of their careers. Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, and Khalil Shakir were on my breakout list last year ... along with nine other players who either got hurt or disappointed us greatly. Looking at you, Zamir White.

I certainly need to improve my batting average on breakouts this year. Here's my first cut at it, going after guys you know who have the chance to be better than they've ever been. Because why would we want them if they're going to be worse?

Here are the players on my breakout list as of late May/early June, each of whom are listed with their average draft position on FantasyPros.

Malik Nabers
NYG • WR • #1
TAR170
REC109
REC YDs1204
REC TD7
FL0
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 9.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 109 catches, 1,204 yards, seven touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 18.2 PPR points per game on 11.3 targets per game
He's a breakout because ... His undeniable talent combined with another year in Brian Daboll's offensive scheme and a perceived upgrade at quarterback might put him in position to compete for the overall WR1 in Fantasy. Russell Wilson's EPA per dropback, yards per pass attempt, TD rate, average depth of target, and QB rating were all higher than any thrower Nabers caught balls from in 2024. And even if it's rookie Jaxson Dart starting, he's got the good-enough arm strength, anticipatory skills, and built-in pre-snap coverage reads to get a catchable ball to Nabers plenty of times per week. He is their offense, his numbers should reflect that.
I'd draft him: Slam-dunk in Round 1 as the fourth or fifth WR off the board.

Bucky Irving
TB • RB • #7
Att207
Yds1122
TD8
FL1
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 20.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 207 carries, 1,122 yards; 47 catches, 392 receiving yards, eight TDs (all rushing)
2024 Fantasy stats: 14.4 PPR points per game but 18.1 in his final eight including the postseason
He's a breakout because ... He managed to post outrageous numbers in 2024 despite playing less than 60% of the team's snaps in all but three games. Of the 18 games he suited up for, he posted 15-plus touches 10 times and 17-plus touches seven times. If this is what Irving can do with a somewhat limited workload, imagine what would happen if he took more touches away from his inferior running mate Rachaad White?
I'd draft him: The ADP is about right, he's worth a Round 2 pick.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
SEA • WR • #11
TAR137
REC100
REC YDs1130
REC TD6
FL0
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 28.5
Numbers to beat for a career year: 100 catches, 1,130 yards, six touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 14.9 PPR points per game on 8.1 targets per game
He's a breakout because ... He's Seattle's best receiver and the new offense should suit him well. Playcaller Klint Kubiak will continue to lean on Smith-Njigba as a target inside the numbers, even if it means lining him out wide and having him break inside, which he's done and keeps doing. This will also be Smith-Njigba's first year where he won't compete with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for targets; instead, he'll share with Cooper Kupp and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It's an easy argument to say Seattle's receiving corps is a little less exciting beyond Smith-Njigba, which is all the more reason why there should be more put on Smith-Njigba's plate.
I'd draft him: Round 3 in PPR, Round 4 in non-PPR.

Chase Brown
CIN • RB • #30
Att229
Yds990
TD7
FL1
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 29.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 229 carries, 990 yards; 54 catches, 360 receiving yards, 11 total TDs (seven rushing)
2024 Fantasy stats: 15.9 PPR points per game but 18.0 in Weeks 6 through 17
He's a breakout because ... The Bengals have already committed to him as their lead back, giving him at least 79.7% of their snaps and at least 15 touches in each of their last eight games. The team kept veteran Zack Moss, brought back pass-down specialist Samaje Perine, and drafted rookie Tahj Brooks, but none of these guys carry the same kind of explosiveness Brown does. Cincy's offense figures to remain high-scoring, providing plenty of chances for Brown to bust out some big runs and touchdowns. Brown also saw the ninth-lowest rate of eight defenders in the box last year because of the other weapons the Bengals have.
I'd draft him: Round 2 as a top-20 pick in all formats.

Marvin Harrison Jr.
ARI • WR • #18
TAR116
REC62
REC YDs885
REC TD8
FL1
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 38.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 62 catches, 885 receiving yards, eight touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 11.6 PPR points per game on 6.8 targets per game
He's a breakout because ... He's changed his body to match the things he needed to get better at, and the end results should be good. Harrison's struggles went beyond thinking too much -- he wasn't winning with physicality often enough, catching 42.1% of his contested targets and averaging 2.4 yards after catch per reception. So he put on some muscle this offseason and will try to bully defensive backs for greater gains. That doesn't solve every problem -- he didn't outrun many cornerbacks as a rookie, plus Kyler Murray and he weren't always on the same page. But Harrison's toughness, route-running, and awareness for soft spots in coverage were always plusses to his game, and now they're enhanced by his improved musculature. He's going to need more targets per game than he had in 2024, but he should get them.
I'd draft him: in Round 4.

Xavier Worthy
KC • WR • #1
TAR98
REC59
REC YDs638
REC TD6
FL0
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 53.5
Numbers to beat for a career year: 59 catches, 638 yards; 20 carries, 104 yards, nine total touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 11 PPR points per game on 5.8 targets per game, but in his final six including the postseason he averaged 21.6 PPR points per game on 8.7 targets per game
He's a breakout because ... He's the Chiefs' most explosive pass-catcher, and he doesn't need 8.7 targets per game to be good for our teams. In fact, in the games he had six or more targets, he still averaged a solid 13.8 PPR points as a rookie. He could build on that average in his second season, but he could also emerge as the Chiefs' top receiver. He's certainly the youngest and healthiest. He even tied for the team lead in end-zone targets. His lack of size is concerning but he proved to be tough to cover. Patrick Mahomes has spoken openly this offseason about being more explosive offensively.
I'd draft him: Round 4 as a top-50 pick in all formats.

Isiah Pacheco
KC • RB • #10
Att83
Yds310
TD1
FL0
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 81.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 205 carries, 935 yards; 44 catches, 244 receiving yards, nine total TDs (seven rushing)
2024 Fantasy stats: 8.1 PPR per game, but did have 16.0 in first two games before breaking his leg, and averaged 15.3 PPR points per game in 2023.
He's a breakout because ... The Chiefs don't have a runner as violent, physical, and versatile as he is. Pacheco's problem is that he might have to prove to the coaching staff that he can be a high-volume, high-value opportunity RB before he gets the kind of chance to be productive like he did in Weeks 1 and 2 last year. The Chiefs might be complacent letting Kareem Hunt handle short-yardage work and some passing downs, and newcomer Elijah Mitchell could factor into some carries as well. Even rookie Brashard Smith could be an occasional factor. But comparing any of those three to Pacheco, at least on paper, is silly. Pacheco's better. Plus the price on Draft Day will be attractively discounted.
I'd draft him: Round 6 as a top-70 pick in all formats.

Ricky Pearsall
SF • WR • #14
TAR46
REC31
REC YDs400
REC TD3
FL0
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 96.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 31 catches, 400 receiving yards, three touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 8.5 PPR points per game on 4.2 targets per game, but in his final three (when he ran more than 25 routes per game) he averaged 18.4 PPR points per game on 7.3 targets per game.
He's a breakout because ... He's the fastest, healthiest receiver on the 49ers entering the preseason, and he might prove to be their best route-runner during the year. Pearsall is perfect for Kyle Shanahan's offense in that he's shifty enough to get open against man coverage, smart enough to find soft spots against zone coverage, and fast enough to outrun any coverage. Seven of his 31 grabs last year were good for 15 or more yards, highlighting his big-play ability. Tack on the departure of Deebo Samuel and a healthy offseason of working on chemistry with Brock Purdy, and the expectation should be for Pearsall to serve a major role in the offense, perhaps even after Brandon Aiyuk rounds back into form.
I'd draft him: Round 7 as a top-80 pick in all formats.

Trevor Lawrence
JAC • QB • #16
CMP%60.6
YDs2045
TD11
INT7
YD/Att7.2
View Profile

FantasyPros ADP: 118.0
Numbers to beat for a career year: 4,113 yards, 25 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions; 339 rushing yards, five rushing touchdowns
2024 Fantasy stats: 16.7 Fantasy points per game (six-point TDs)
He's a breakout because ... Jacksonville traded up for receiver Travis Hunter, who will pair with stud second-year speedster Brian Thomas Jr. It's a combination that has the potential to be better than any WR duo in the league outside of what the Bengals, Eagles, and Buccaneers have. The Jaguars defense also doesn't figure to slow many teams down, leading to more pass attempts per game for Lawrence. And new head coach and play designer Liam Coen has the brainpower to dial up some awesome plays, as evidenced by Baker Mayfield's career year in 2024. The Draft Day price tag is insanely cheap for what Lawrence might end up delivering.
I'd draft him: Round 10 or 11 as the 13th quarterback off the board.