Jaguars at Dolphins -- Week 15

Where: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. (grass, outdoors)

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Spread: Miami by 7

Forecast: Mid-70s, light breeze

Records: Jaguars (2-11; AFC South 2-3); Dolphins (5-8, AFC East 1-3)

Past results: Two most recent meetings -- Dec. 13, 2009: Dolphins 14, Jaguars 10; Dec. 3, 2006: Jaguars 24, Dolphins 10. Series record: Jaguars lead 3-2.

What matters: The Dolphins are clinging to a miniscule hope of making the playoffs. The Jaguars are trying to avoid their worst all-time record, a 4-12 mark in their inaugural season in 1995. With the Patriots still on the schedule, a loss to Miami would almost guarantee the Jaguars would finish with no more than three wins this year.

Who matters: If the Jaguars are going to have a chance, they’ll have to expose Miami's secondary. The Dolphins are one of the best run defenses in the league, so Jacksonville must rely on QB Chad Henne, WRs Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon and TE Marcedes Lewis to move the ball. Henne needs to bounce back after completing less than 50 percent of his passes in the past two games. He’s also throw three INTs in the last two weeks. If he plays more like he did in Weeks 11 and 12 (615 yards, 6 TDs combined), the Jaguars could be in position for an upset.

Key matchup: Stopping the run has been a problem for the Jaguars, especially in the last two weeks. In each of the last two games -- losses to the Jets and the Bills -- the opposing team has had two RBs run for at least 77 yards. That’s good news for Miami’s starting RB Reggie Bush, but also for his backup, Daniel Thomas. If the duo combines for 150 rushing yards or more, it will greatly diminish Jacksonville’s chance at staying in the game.

Injuries of note: WR Shorts (concussion) missed last week, but he returned to the practice field this week after his symptoms cleared. He is expected to play. RBs Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) and Rashad Jennings (concussion) will likely not play. RB Montell Owens should get his second consecutive start in their place. CB Aaron Ross (calf) and S Dwight Lowery (foot) are questionable. 

Inside stuff: Henne’s struggles the past two weeks have led some to ask if there are any other options at QB for Jacksonville right now. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the answer is probably not. Jordan Palmer is the only other QB on the roster right now. Though he led a few nice drives in the preseason, he hasn’t seen any meaningful action this year and it’s unlikely the coaches would make that switch unless Henne is injured.

Connections: Henne is returning to Miami where he was 13-18 as a starter for the Dolphins from 2008-11.

Stat you should know: Though he was quiet last week against the Jets (1 catch, 7 yards), Lewis has become more involved in the passing game since Henne took over for Blaine Gabbert. Henne has targeted the veteran TE 22 times in the past four weeks and his top two games in term of receiving yards (68 vs. Buffalo and 56 vs. Tennessee) have come with Henne at QB.

Looking ahead: The Jaguars return home next week to face the Patriots (10-3) before playing at Tennessee (4-9), one of two teams the Jags have defeated so far this year.

Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jaguars 20

For more Jaguars news and analysis, follow Daniel Lewis @CBSJags.