How good will Ashton Jeanty be? Best bets for Raiders top pick; Fantasy projections for other rookie RBs

Running backs taken top 10 overall have averaged 1,000-plus yards rushing over the past 10 years

The 2025 NFL Draft played out as anticipated with Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty and North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton being taken in the first round. In total, there were six running backs drafted among the top 100 overall. Expectations for Jeanty, in particular, are high, but are they realistic? 

In an effort to predict what his and other rookie seasons may resemble, CBSSports.com explores what running backs have been able to accomplish in their rookie seasons over the past 10 years. Prior to the most recent draft, there had been 27 running backs drafted in the top 50 overall dating to 2015. For the sake of this exercise, any running back who appeared in fewer than 12 games, of whom there were five, were excluded when configuring statistical projections. 

Six running backs have been drafted in the top 10 overall during this time period: Bijan Robinson, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley. Those players set a high bar for Jeanty by averaging 235.17 carries for 1,082.5 yards and 8.5 touchdowns.

The Raiders have no competition for Jeanty at the position. Pete Carroll's offenses have always been built on the foundation of a strong run game -- a tendency that spawned the popular phrase "Let Russ (Wilson) cook." The Boise State product will eat well in Carroll's offense. The average of the top 10 rookie running back seasons since 2015 is as follows: 256.4 carries for 1,239.5 yards and nine touchdowns.

CBSSports.com's Fantasy Football experts project 273 carries for 1,115 yards and 10 touchdowns for Jeanty. He is RB9 on Fantasy Football projections. As of writing this, DraftKings Sportsbook has 1100-plus rushing yards at +115. The better value is 10-plus rushing touchdowns at +270. Both figures represent optimistic but attainable goals. (New users can activate $300 in bonus bets upon winning your first $5 bet.) 

The outlook on running backs taken in the top 50 overall, but outside of the top 10 overall, is also encouraging; 186.4 carries for 858.8 yards and 5.75 touchdowns is the average.

Veteran running back Najee Harris will likely eat into the carries given to Hampton, who is projected 180 carries for 701 yards and six touchdowns by CBSSports.com's Fantasy Football experts. Coach Jim Harbaugh is of a similar mindset to Carroll in that he values a strong run game and a stingy defense. One of the criticisms about first-round quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who played under Harbaugh at Michigan, coming into the draft was that he had not been asked to carry an offense. His role had been that of a distributor or a point guard. 

Additionally, four of the top 10 seasons by a rookie running back over the past 10 years have been delivered by players drafted outside of the top 50 overall:   

• Kareem Hunt, pick 86, Chiefs (2017): 272 rushes for 1,327 yards, 8 TD
• Jordan Howard, pick 150, Bears (2016): 252 rushes for 1,313 yards, 6 TD
• Bucky Irving, pick 125, Buccaneers (2024): 207 rushes for 1,122 yards, 8 TD
• James Robinson, UDFA, Jaguars (2020): 240 rushes for 1,070 yards, 7 TD

Other notable fantasy projections for rookie RBs

• Quinshon Judkins, Round 2 (pick 36), Browns: 203 carries for 797 yards and 5 TD
• TreVeyon Henderson, Round 2 (pick 38), Patriots: 191 carries for 909 yards and 5 TD
• RJ Harvey, Round 2 (pick 60), Broncos: 203 carries for 861 yards and 6 TD
• Kaleb Johnson, Round 3 (pick 83), Steelers: 190 carries for 746 yards and 5 TD

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R.J. White