2025 NFL rookie QB outlook: Best- and worst-case scenarios for Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders and others in Year 1

How good (or bad) could it get for the newest crop of passers in 2025?

What's the worst that could happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback is thrust onto an NFL field in his debut season, especially if most believe he's playing too soon. 

Yet NFL coaches are people just like the rest of us, and society today isn't too fond of waiting to get their young quarterbacks into a regular season game. And as we've seen with the likes of Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, sometimes rookie passers can experience a best-case scenario in Year 1. 

In this article, I've gone deep and gotten very specific in my determination of the best- and worst-case scenarios for the 2025 rookie quarterbacks, just like I did last year for 2024's loaded group and the year before with Bryce Young, Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Co. As you'll see below, the figures are based upon these quarterbacks actually getting a chance to play considerable snaps in their first seasons -- which isn't a guarantee for all those passers drafted in late April, especially in 2025's relatively "light" class. 

For the sake of this piece, we're going to assume the quarterbacks included all get a sizable opportunity. Cam Ward is almost assured to be the Titans' Week 1 starter. Jaxson Dart has a much steeper uphill climb to playing in Year 1, with Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson on the Giants roster. And, heck, Tyler Shough could be starting for the Saints before we know it. And who on earth knows what's going to transpire in Cleveland. 

From there, I took liberties with how much above or below the averages I feel each quarterback could land in a best- and worst-case scenario.

To begin, I found parameters of expectations for these first-year passers. As a baseline, I used the seasons from the 19 quarterbacks who threw for at least 200 passes as a rookie over the past five seasons. Actually, it's 19 passers plus Brock Purdy. I included his gaudy first-year stats in San Francisco for the average of the entire group although he only threw 170 passes in his first NFL season because he essentially set a new standard in rookie quarterback efficiency in 2022. So the sample used here is 20 rookie quarterbacks.

Here's a look:

	Comp. %	Yards Per Attempt	TD %	INT %	QB Rating	Sack %
High mark (Jayden Daniels, 2024)	69%	7.4	5.2	1.9	100.1	8.92
Low mark (Zach Wilson, 2021)	55.6	5.8	2.3	2.9	69.7	10.3
Average of entire group	63.6	6.74	3.72	2.1	86.8	7.61

In a perfect world, we'd have a much larger sample size to conduct this study. However, NFL studies are not like most other studies in that a larger sample size can actually be counterproductive because of how swiftly the game evolves for everyone on the field, most notably the quarterbacks. Including passers from even before, say, 2020 feels too outdated to be predictive whatsoever. 

For context on the averages, the 63.6% completion was identical to Josh Allen's during a season he won MVP. The 6.74 yards-per-attempt figure was just above the YPA from Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix and Drake Maye in 2024. The average touchdown percentage of 3.72 was right between Geno Smith (3.6%) and C.J. Stroud (3.8%) a season ago. The 2.1% interception rate was the same as Nix and Daniel Jones. The collective 86.8 rating was essentially the same at Aidan O'Connell's 87.6 in 2024. Now that you have genuine, stat-based expectations to refer to, let's get to best- and worst-case scenarios for 2025 rookie passers. 

(Before I begin ... If you're wondering if these are worthwhile to check and are predictive at all, here was my high-end projection for Jayden Daniels before his rookie season with the Commanders, next to his actual statistics from Year 1: 

• Daniels' best-case scenario projection from May 2024: 67% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 4,015 passing yards, 28 TD passes, 8 INTs, 44 sacks, 99.1 rating
• Daniels' actual 2024 season: 69% completion, 7.4 yards per attempt, 3,568 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs, 47 sacks, 100.1 rating

And here was the low-end projection for Bryce Young before his rookie season in 2023 with the Panthers, next to his actual statistics from Year 1. 

• Young's worst-case scenario projection from May 2023: 60% completion, 6.1 yards per attempt, 2,440 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 12 INTs, 32 sacks, 74.1 rating
• Young's actual 2023 season: 59.8% completion, 5.5 yards per attempt, 2,877 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 10 INTs, 62 sacks, 73.7 rating

Ok, now let's get to the 2025 projections...

Note: All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +350 ($10 to win $35)

• Best-case scenario: 64% completion, 6.9 yards per attempt, 3,174 passing yards, 18 TD passes, 10 INTs, 32 sacks, 88.0 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 5.9 yards per attempt, 2,714 passing yards, 11 TD passes, 11 INTs, 46 sacks, 73.0 rating

A season ago, Daniels threw the football 480 times in the regular season while starting every game. I'm basing these projections for Ward slightly under that, at 460 passes, which equates to exactly 27 passes per contest. While that feels high for a rookie, I do expect the Titans to be playing from behind often, thereby leading to clear-cut passing scenarios for the No. 1 overall pick. 

Ward proved his accuracy in his final three seasons at the collegiate level, and despite what is still one of the least-imposing receiver group in the NFL, his propensity to stretch the field and make the occasional off-structure play led to reasonably high best-case scenario figures. I can't envision Ward completely tanking in Year 1, yet the environment in Tennessee may very well hold him back as a rookie. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +3500

• Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.2 yards per attempt, 2,520 passing yards, 16 TD passes, 7 INTs, 28 sacks, 93.2 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 59% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 1,820 passing yards, 8 TD passes, 10 INTs, 36 sacks, 69.9 rating

Basing these Dart projections on 350 attempts, simply because I'd be reasonably surprised if he's the Week 1 starter and/or ultimately plays a full 17-game regular season schedule as a rookie, especially given the maturation process ahead of him going from Ole Miss' offense to Brian Daboll's. 

Dart is a talented thrower with plus athleticism on his side, which is part of the reason why his best-case scenario sack total is somewhat low. Also, the Giants have slowly but surely built a quality skill-position group on offense and the blocking should be improved, so if everything aligns for the first-rounder, a spectacular season with a rating in the low 90s isn't out of the question. 

There's a wider range for Dart than Ward, simply due to the gimmicky nature of what Dart was accustomed to in college. 

Confident Jaxson Dart appears ready to be the face of the Giants franchise -- whenever that time may be

Jonathan Jones

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +1000

• Best-case scenario: 61% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 2,450 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 8 INTs, 35 sacks, 85.0 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 57% completion, 6.0 yards per attempt, 2,100 passing yards, 7 TD passes, 9 INTs, 39 sacks, 70.6 rating

I have no idea what the Saints plan is at quarterback. They used a top-40 selection on a passer who'll be 26 years old in September, and currently have Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener as the other quarterbacks on the roster. I have to imagine Shough will see the field for long stretches as a rookie, so these projections are based on 350 attempts. That'd be just under 27 attempts per game in 13 contests. 

Shough has above-average arm talent and certainly demonstrated a flair for the acrobatic throw/play, particularly at Louisville in 2024. The Saints roster is mostly barren, although if Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed can stay healthy, he'll have two quality playmakers downfield. It would not surprise me if Shough and the entire Saints offense flounders, though, which makes way for the concerningly low worst-case projection. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +3500

• Best-case scenario: 64% completion, 6.8 yards per attempt, 2,210 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 7 INTs, 36 sacks, 85.0 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 57% completion, 5.9 yards per attempt, 1,917 passing yards, 6 TD passes, 8 INTs, 40 sacks, 69.9 rating

Even less clear than the Saints' quarterback situation is the Browns'. For the sake of this article, to make the numbers worthwhile, I'm baking in 325 attempts for Gabriel, as what I would deem as the most he could realistically make as a rookie, for each projection. I can't see him beating out everyone in Cleveland's quarterback room and starting 17 straight games in Year 1. If he did, the 325 attempts would equate to 19 attempts per game. That's pretty darn low. 

In terms of the figures themselves, Gabriel has below-average arm talent but anticipatory elements to his style as a thrower. If he's on the field for any period of time as a rookie, expect low average depth of target and the ball out of his hands in a flash. If everything goes his way, a completion rate well over 60% isn't crazy. But after a while, defenses will tighten underneath, and that shift is part of the reason his worst-case figures are very low. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: +2000

• Best-case scenario: 65% completion, 7.0 yards per attempt, 2,275 passing yards, 13 TD passes, 5 INTs, 24 sacks, 92.2 rating
• Worst-case scenario: 58% completion, 6.2 yards per attempt, 2,015 passing. yards, 10 TD passes, 10 INTs, 39 sacks, 73.5 rating

Much of what I wrote for Gabriel applies to Sanders, although in my estimation, Sanders was clearly the better NFL quarterback prospect (despite the fact he was picked two rounds later). 

These projections are based on the same 325 attempts, and behind what should be a decent offensive line, with a nice albeit unspectacular collection of skill-position talent in Kevin Stefanski's time-tested, QB-friendly system, Sanders thriving wouldn't be an ridiculous outlier type rookie campaign. He has anticipation skills, and his trademark in college was keeping the ball out of harm's way, which I considered in his interception totals on both ends of the spectrum. 

A lack of athleticism and downfield touch could very well hurt his efficiency metrics if the stars don't align for Sanders in Year 1, and I feel his potential range of outcomes is rather large. 

Shedeur Sanders vs. Dillon Gabriel: Which Browns rookie QB is better set up for NFL success?

Mike Renner