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USATSI

With the 2025 NFL schedule released earlier in May, bettors' attention turns to the futures market and trying to find the best bets to place before the season starts in September. The CBS Sports NFL team is breaking down the win total markets by division, covering the AFC East, AFC North, AFC South and AFC West this week and the NFC next week. We also shared the SportsLine Projection Model's best win total picks in both the AFC and NFC earlier this month.

Another interesting market available with some sportsbooks is the team to have the most and fewest wins in the regular season. Last year, the Lions and Chiefs tied for the most wins, so bettors at DraftKings who had either in the most wins futures market won at half price of the odds they bet (called a dead-heat reduction).

For 2025, the Buffalo Bills are favored in the most wins market at +350, with the Baltimore Ravens next at +500. Last year's Super Bowl teams are tied for the third-shortest odds with both the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs at +900.

Below, you can find the odds for every team to have the most wins at DraftKings as of May 22. Then, I'll share my favorite pick in the market along with a few interesting longer shots.

Odds to have most wins (DraftKings)

TeamOddsWin Total2024 Wins
Bills+35011.513
Ravens+50011.512
Eagles+90011.514
Chiefs+90011.515
49ers+130010.56
Buccaneers+18009.510
Lions+180010.515
Rams+20009.510
Broncos+20009.510
Commanders+22009.512
Packers+22009.511
Vikings+25008.514
Chargers+25009.511
Bengals+28009.59
Patriots+45008.54
Cardinals+45008.58
Texans+50009.510
Seahawks+55008.510
Steelers+60008.510
Bears+60008.55
Jaguars+80007.54
Cowboys+80007.57
Falcons+80007.58
Dolphins+200008.58
Colts+200007.58
Titans+250005.53
Raiders+250006.54
Panthers+250006.55
Jets+400005.55
Giants+400005.53
Saints+500006.55
Browns+700004.53

Best bet: 49ers +1300

I did not go into this expecting to land on the 49ers as my best bet, with just six wins last year and a lot of offseason departures to overcome. But many of their issues last year were tied to a horrendous run of injury luck that saw them finish with the most Adjusted Games Lost by a wide margin, per Aaron Schatz at FTN Fantasy. Coaching figures to be better with Robert Saleh back as defensive coordinator, and if he can get immediate contributions from first-round pick Mykel Williams and a healthy season from Fred Warner, who played through injury for much of 2024, then the defense may return to being a strength instead of a core weakness.

On offense, Deebo Samuel is gone, and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 7, but the 49ers still have solid depth at receiver to lean on between Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Demarcus Robinson, the latter of whom can hold the fort down until Aiyuk is healthy. Brock Purdy still has George Kittle to lean on as well, and hopefully Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy this season behind an offensive line that looks solid across the board if it doesn't have to dip far into its depth once again.

But the main reason to love the 49ers is the last-place schedule they'll get to face, which gives them the easiest schedule in the league considering they'll be up against the NFC South and AFC South this season along with non-common road games against the Browns and Giants plus a home matchup with the Bears. If the 49ers return to normal form, we should expect them to go at least 8-3 in non-divisional games with a decent chance at nine or even 10 wins. That gives them a chance to get into the 13-15 win range, depending on how they do in the division.

I wish we were getting better odds considering they're coming off a six-win season, but the 49ers should be in the group of favorites when it comes to the most wins market thanks to their advantageous schedule rather than a step behind. I'm going to trust good coaching against an easy schedule to beat the teams they should and win plenty of close games against the rest of their opponents.

Mid-range value: Chargers +2500

Jim Harbaugh's first season in Los Angeles was largely a successful one, as the Chargers won 11 games and made the playoffs while posting the fewest points allowed in the league. Now, they did pile up wins against some pretty bad teams while going 2-5 against eventual playoff teams and then getting blown out by the Texans in the wild-card round, but only two of their regular-season losses were by more than one score.

It seems to me the Chargers are moving in a positive direction, and I like them focusing on building the offense around Justin Herbert in the draft by adding a difference-maker at running back and a much-needed complement for Ladd McConkey at receiver. Herbert threw just three interceptions last year while posting the best yards per attempt figure in his career, and with an improved rushing attack after finishing 24th in yards per carry, this team has a lot of potential -- if it can get by the Chiefs.

Even though they lose their home game against the Chiefs to the Brazil opener, the Chargers are set up well in their NFC matchups (facing the Eagles and Commanders at home in the NFC East plus a home matchup against the Vikings), and they get to play the AFC South along with beatable Miami and Indianapolis teams. Crack the nut that's the Chiefs and post a 4-2 or 5-1 record in the division, and this team has a shot at stealing the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Top sleeper: Bears +6000

When looking for sleepers, I think it's smart to take swings on the teams that made major changes at the most critical spots in their organization, with head coach and quarterback being the two most prominent. The Bears qualify after adding the most desired head-coaching candidate of the last few cycles to come in and make an offense with a lot of individual talent cohesive. Ben Johnson will benefit from an improved offensive line after the focus paid on upgrading the interior, and we know how crucial that unit was to his offense's success in Detroit.

Johnson was also able to maximize the production of Jared Goff, with the former No. 1 overall pick playing at an MVP level last year while completing more than 72% of his passes. Johnson will be tasked with maximizing the Bears' 2024 No. 1 overall pick, Caleb Williams in the same way, and he has even better pass-catchers around him than Goff did, with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet to target. On defense, the additions of Grady Jarrett, Dayo Odeyingbo and rookie Shemar Turner will boost a unit that relied too much on Montez Sweat last year, and the secondary and linebacker units still feature plenty of talent that should play well under veteran DC Dennis Allen. 

The Lions went from 25th in scoring offense the year prior to Johnson taking over the offense to fifth, and that was with Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift featuring at running back with Swift, Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds and DJ Chark as the four most-targeted players behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, himself not a traditional WR1. A similar jump could be in store for the Bears this year, and a top-five offense plus some decline from the Lions would give the Bears a fighting chance at being the NFC's top seed.

Top longshot: Falcons +8000

I couldn't talk myself into any of the teams at +20000 or higher as my top longshot, even a Raiders team I think is underrated. So I'm going to back the Falcons as my best longshot with higher odds if you're not convinced by the Bears' upside or think their schedule might be too difficult to overcome. The Falcons have the fourth-easiest schedule in the league while playing in the NFC South, where a good team should expect to go 5-1. They could also pick up some wins facing the AFC East but will need to prove they can make a leap if they're going to compete with the NFC teams on the rest of the schedule, which includes four NFC West matchups.

But making a leap is in play with the transition to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. Penix started the last three games of 2024, and while his stats weren't great, the Falcons did score almost 30 points per game in those matchups. A full offseason to work as a starter in a stable offensive system run by Zac Robinson gives Penix a wide range of outcomes for 2025, where he could fall flat as the Falcons stumble to a low offensive rating, or he could emerge as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. That uncertainty is perfect when looking for a deep longshot to back for an extreme outcome like we need in the most wins market.

The bigger issue in Atlanta last year was the defense, particularly the pass rush, and the Falcons got aggressive to address that issue by taking assumed top-10 pick Jalon Walker at No. 15 and then sacrificing a future first-rounder to get back into the first round for James Pearce. If the pair of rookies can elevate the pass rush from abysmal to average, it could lift the rest of the defensive performance to the point where a breakout QB can take this squad from eight wins last year into range for the No. 1 seed.