Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the Pittsburgh Pirates.
1. Paul Skenes, RHP (21 years old)
- Top 25 ranking: No. 10
- The short version: The No. 1 pick is a prototypical power pitcher.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
Skenes went No. 1 in July's draft on the basis of his power arsenal and his proximity to the majors. His fastball clocked in around 98 mph during a late-season appearance in the Florida State League, and his slider has proven to be an effective chase offering. Turns out he didn't strike out nearly 48% of the batters he faced during SEC play by accident. Even so, Skenes was more polarizing in scouting circles than the above information indicates. His fastball's shape has "dead zone" properties, a fancy way of saying it's easier to track because of a similar amount of vertical and horizontal movement. That blemish won't keep Skenes from having a big-league career -- Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Greene both have "dead zone" fastballs -- but it may cause his fastball to be less effective than it should be based on pure velocity.
2. Termarr Johnson, 2B (19 years old)
- The short version: Former top-five pick has transformed his game, for better or worse.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2025
When Johnson was drafted No. 4 overall in 2022, he was supposed to possess a near-elite hit tool. After a year and a half, he's transformed his game to be a different kind of hitter. Indeed, Johnson has leaned far more into slugging than expected, hitting .240/.413/.427 for his professional career. Regardless of your thoughts on that approach -- and we're not saying it's better or worse, just different -- it's hard to argue with the overall results. Johnson, despite being more than a couple years younger than his peers, was roughly 40% better than the league-average at both Single- and High-A. He's already made the transition to the keystone, meaning he'll have to continue to hit to live up to his draft standing. So far, so good.
3. Jared Jones, RHP (22 years old)
- The short version: Small right-hander with a big arm and some relief risk.
- MLB ETA: Summer 2024
Jones may be listed at only 6-foot-1, but you wouldn't know it based on his massive right arm. He averaged 96 mph during his stay in Triple-A, and he was clocked as high as 99.9 mph. Truthfully, Jones' fastball plays even hotter than that because he's able to get down the mound, giving him a deeper release point than his height indicates. He also generated more than 33% whiffs on a pair of breaking balls. Jones, who pitches off a high front side, scuffled with his command following a promotion to Triple-A. It's worth noting, too, that Jones has yet to clear 130 innings in a season (though he has topped 120 in each of the last two years). Those questions aside, Jones has at least mid-rotation upside and he should make his debut sooner than later in 2024.
