Today's best bets: Pick Heat to upset Cavaliers in Game 1, plus MLB and NHL plays
Check out Sunday's best bets across NBA, MLB and NHL games from the SportsLine Projection Model

Easter Sunday brings plenty of action for sports fans, as the NBA, MLB and NHL seasons continue. The NBA and NHL postseasons continue with Game 1s, while MLB has 16 games on tap with the Nationals and Rockies playing a doubleheader. The SportsLine Projection Model can help bettors navigate which matchups to target, as it simulates every game 10,000 times and weighs the simulations against publicly available odds to give SportsLine members an important edge.
Here's a look at the model's top-rated plays Sunday across NBA, MLB and NHL games.
MIAMI HEAT at CLEVELAND CAVALIERS | 4/20 | 7 p.m. ET
Model pick: Heat ML (+541)
The model projects the Heat win in 28% of simulations, bringing substantial value at these odds. Miami made history by becoming the first No. 10 seed to advance out of the play-in tournament, adding to its distinction as the only team to make the NBA Finals from the play-in tournament. The Cavaliers have all the pressure as the East's top seed, while the Heat come into this series without big expectations. Miami has momentum from the play-in wins and some star power with Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo. Even though Cleveland is a double-digit favorite, the model believes a Miami upset victory in Game 1 is worth backing at these odds.
SAN DIEGO PADRES at HOUSTON ASTROS | 4/20 | 7:10 p.m. ET
Model pick: Astros ML (-128)
The Padres and Astros will conclude their three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball, with Houston looking for a sweep of what is currently the best team in baseball. San Diego sends ace Dylan Cease to the mound while the Astros counter with Framber Valdez. Valdez won his start on Opening Day against the Mets while Cease has been roughed up a bit in his last two outings, allowing 12 runs on 16 hits across 9 2/3 innings. SportsLine's model likes the Astros in this spot, as they win in 62% of simulations.
NEW JERSEY DEVILS at CAROLINA HURRICANES | 4/20 | 3 p.m. ET
Model pick: Over 5.5 goals
The model gives the Over on this total an 'A' rating, as it hits in 59.2% of simulations. The Hurricanes averaged 3.24 goals per game during the regular season, while the Devils scored 2.93 goals per game. All four regular-season meetings between these two teams went Over 5.5 goals, including both games of a back-to-back set Dec. 27 and Dec. 28. Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho should see plenty of chances to put the puck in the net for Carolina, while New Jersey will rely on a more balanced attack headlined by Nico Hischier.
More Sunday picks
You've seen the top NBA, MLB and NHL predictions from the model. Now, see today's best sports betting picks from one of SportsLine's most versatile handicappers, Matt Severance. He's on a 144-83-1 run in the NBA (+2613), a 118-62-6 run in the NHL (+2340), and a 50-25 (+1166) run in MLB. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from an expert who is red-hot in all three sports.
You can also visit SportsLine now to see the model's MLB score projections and props for every game Sunday. You can also get NBA picks to capitalize on the model's 156-115 roll in professional basketball and tap into puck-line NHL picks.