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  • expert headshot
    Jeff Hochman
    +290
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 NCAAB ATS Picks
    DUKE -15.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Feb 23 @ 4:31pm

    Analysis

    Duke enters the contest as one of the most mathematically dominant teams in the nation, ranking 9th overall in Offensive Efficiency and 4th in Defensive Efficiency. The Fighting Irish counter with a pedestrian OE of 114.9 (ranked 88th nationally) and a highly vulnerable Defensive Efficiency of 106.0 (ranked 109th). The Blue Devils have a magnificent 57.5% Effective Field Goal Percentage on the offensive end, a metric largely driven by a physically dominant interior presence that secures a massive 36.9% Offensive Rebounding Rate. Notre Dame will be forced to compete without freshman guard Jalen Haralson, their leading scorer and primary offensive initiator, who has been ruled out of this contest with an unspecified injury. My model has this all the way up to -19.5 for Duke.
  • expert headshot
    Chip Patterson
    #5
    +341
    (63%)
    10-6 in Last 16 NCAAB Picks
    UK -5.5
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Feb 23 @ 7:00pm

    Analysis

    South Carolina had one of its best shooting performances of the season in a 95-89 home win against Mississippi State on Saturday, highlighted by a 12-of-24 showing from behind the arc when the team ranks 319th nationally (31%) in three-point percentage. So as the Gamecocks, at 3-11 in SEC play, are gearing up to run it back in Columbia a few days later, it's fair to expect a little bit of regression. South Carolina has hosted Missouri, Florida, Georgia and Vanderbilt this season and gone 0-4 against that group with three defeats coming by double-digits. Kentucky might be struggling right now with a three-game losing streak, but it should be able to win this game by double-digits like those other top-50 SEC teams.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    #2
    +1869
    (68%)
    38-18 in Last 56 NCAAB Picks
    STLOU -5.5
    -102
    Spread
    Picked: Feb 23 @ 8:46pm

    Analysis

    St. Louis is 25-2 on the year, which brings a big target on their back. They lost their last road game at Rhode Island 81-76 as a 9.5-point favorite. They were losing at home in their last game to VCU, but had a furious comeback in the second half to win. Dayton has won and covered their last three games, but it was on January 30th that they lost 102-71 to St. Louis. Dayton played well that day, but had 15 turnovers, and St. Louis shot 62% from the field. St. Louis has the No. 1 defense in the nation, holding opponents to 36.3% shooting. The Billikens are 7-1 on the road, and I think they win this one by double-digits. St. Louis to cover.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #5
    +185
    (83%)
    5-1 in Last 6 NBA ATS Picks
    TOR +2
    -114
    Spread
    Picked: Feb 23 @ 4:51pm

    Analysis

    I think Toronto should be favored as the Dinos should have everyone available -- Scottie Barnes is good to go after missing the last game for personal reasons. OKC is down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (missing his homecoming in Toronto), Jalen Williams, Ajay Mitchell, probably Alex Caruso and maybe Chet Holmgren (rest in front of a B2B). The Thunder somehow managed to beat the Cavs down all those guys but Holmgren Sunday but that was at home. The Raptors have won four of five and also won in OKC earlier this season when SGA was playing. The Thunder also have a bigger game Wednesday in Detroit in a possible NBA Finals matchup and with the top overall seed in the playoffs perhaps on the line.
  • expert headshot
    Chip Patterson
    #5
    +341
    (63%)
    10-6 in Last 16 NCAAB Picks
    Over 143.5
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Feb 23 @ 7:16pm

    Analysis

    Missouri has been on a recent run of higher scoring games (four straight overs, all clearing at least 153 points), and there are a few edges to be found in a game that could easily flirt with the upper 70s. Missouri has one of the starkest home-road splits for three-point shooting in SEC play, connecting on 37.1% from deep at home while that number plummets to 31.2% on the road. If Missouri can dial up disruptive defense (Tennessee ranks 16th in turnover percentage in SEC play) that gets the Tigers into transition opportunities those will help boost scoring, as will Tennessee’s elite status when it comes to offensive rebounds. So even in a game without crazy pace, there are plenty of paths to finding buckets.

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