It's almost time for Copa America as defending champions Argentina kick off the party on Thursday which also means that it's time to delve into the crystal ball for predicting the entire tournament. After predicting the 2022 World Cup final between France and Argentina correctly, this will be a fun test to see if I can nail another international tournament as CONMEBOL welcomes some of Concacaf's best into their tournament.
One thing that I'll say is if you're looking for goals, this may not be the best place. Goals are for Euros, Copa America is a different style of tournament, teams are evenly matched and it can lead to more defensive soccer. There are also quite a few teams both in Concacaf and CONMEBOL that are almost allergic to scoring. With that aside, let's get down to how I see the tournament going:
Group A
| Place | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +5 | 9 |
2 | Canada | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
3 | Chile | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
4 | Peru | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Argentina 1, Canada 0
Peru 0, Chile 0
Matchday 2 picks
Peru 0, Canada 1
Chile 0, Argentina 2
Matchday 3 picks
Argentina 2, Peru 0
Canada 2, Chile 1
This group is ... something. While Argentina doing anything other than sweeping the field would come as a shock, after them it's anyone's guess of what may happen. Canada boasts the two best non-Argentine players in the group in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David and that should be enough for Jesse Marsch to guide the Canucks out of their group. Peru and Chile used to be great international sides but led by aging players, this won't be the tournament where they get back to their best.
Group B
| Place | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ecuador | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 2 | Venezuela | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Jamaica | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Ecuador 1, Venezuela 0
Mexico 1, Jamaica 1
Matchday 2 picks
Ecuador 2, Jamaica 1
Venezuela 1, Mexico 0
Matchday 3 picks
Mexico 1, Ecuador 1
Jamaica 0, Venezuela 1
After Argentina and Colombia, Ecuador may have the best defense in this tournament as well as one of the most exciting players in 17-year-old Kendry Páez at the heart of their midfield. That'll be plenty to get them not only out of the group but to also see them top it. Enner Valencia still leading the attack is a concern but not one that will really matter until the knockout rounds. Another defensively sound side that could take advantage of the dysfunction of the group is Venezuela. Salomón Rondón is still scoring goals with ease at 34 for Pachuca and will be a large part of anything that La Vinotinto are to do during this tournament. These won't be predictions that the Concacaf teams would like to see as both Mexico and Jamaica will miss the cut of the knockout rounds despite a favorable draw but it says plenty about where both federations are currently.
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Group C
| Place | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uruguay | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | United States | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Panama | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bolivia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
Matchday 1 picks
United States 3, Bolivia 0
Uruguay 2, Panama 0
Matchday 2 picks
Panama 1, United States 2
Uruguay 3, Bolivia 0
Matchday 3 picks
Bolivia 1, Panama 2
United States 1, Uruguay 2
After Argentina, Uruguay are one of the most complete sides in the entire tournament, and having the guile of a resurgent Luis Suarez in the squad will be a boon to their chances to not only advance the group but make a deep run as well. The United States will take care of business under Gregg Berhalter despite wobbling entering the competition. A team that is pretty good at dispatching the teams that they're supposed to defeat, the USMNT will get past familiar opposition in Panama along with a Bolivia side that's off the pace of the rest of CONMEBOL, once things get tighter in the knockout stages, the fun may come to an end.
Group D
| Place | Team | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 7 |
| 2 | Colombia | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Paraguay | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
Matchday 1 picks
Colombia 2, Paraguay 0
Brazil 4, Costa Rica 1
Matchday 2 picks
Colombia 2, Costa Rica 0
Paraguay 0, Brazil 3
Matchday 3 picks
Brazil 1, Colombia 1
Costa Rica 1, Paraguay 1
The top two teams in this group are clear between Colombia and Brazil but there's not much to split them for first and second as we reach a group that'd decided by only goal difference. It would be quite an upset for a Paraguay side anemic to scoring or Costa Rica who are looking to find their footing following the end of a golden generation to even take a point off the top sides which is why it'll come down to who puts more goals past the duo. With Brazil's attacking power of Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior, Raphinha, and a rising star in Endrick, their attack will be too much to bear other sides except Colombia.
Quarterfinals
Argentina 2, Venezuela 0
Ecuador 1 vs. Canada 0
Brazil 2, United States 1
Uruguay 2, Colombia 1
Once we reach the round of 16, that's where we start going chalk as quality shines from the top teams in South America. Concacaf's run will come to an end as Brazil avenges their draw against the USMNT by getting the job done in their second time meeting this year. Canada also will struggle with Ecuador's quality but just making it to the round of 16 is good progress for Marsch's side. Argentina continues to make things look easy while taking advantage of an easier opponent in Venezuela but the other matches in the round of 16 will be decided by the thinnest margins. The game to keep an eye on is Uruguay and Colombia as Marcelo Bielsa's leadership guides the team to a victory with a key finish from Darwin Nunez. While he had a rough season for Liverpool, the guy who turns up for the national team is an entirely different animal.
Semifinals
Brazil 1, Uruguay 2
Argentina 2, Ecuador 0
We've got more tight matches but Nunez continues his run to the Golden Boot by scoring a brace to topple an imbalanced Brazil squad. It's tough to figure out what's next for the Seleçāo but figuring out a direction and a coach for the future would be a good start. Lionel Messi also puts his stamp on the tournament with a brace of his own and the finals are set with quite an occasion on the horizon.
Third Place
Ecuador 1, Brazil 3
Brazil get a consolation as Endrick scores twice in the third-place game but it's also a tournament to remember for Ecuador. While there is plenty to figure out long term, when it comes to strikers, there is a lot to like about this side moving forward.
Final
Uruguay 2, Argentina 1
Messi vs. Biesla for a Copa America title is quite a moment and playing in the final will be the poetic return of Suarez to the Uruguayan national team. With the game level at half, Suarez comes off the bench in the 60th minute to push Uruguay to their first Copa title since 2011 and also breaking a tie with Argentina for the most titles in Copa America history with their 16th.
