2025 NFL win totals picks, best bets for AFC West: Can Chiefs keep grasp in an increasingly tough division?

Here's a look at the win totals for the entire AFC West

You'd be hard pressed to find a division more interesting than the AFC West. Already, this group was filled to the brim with decorated head coaches like Andy Reid, Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh. Now, they're adding Pete Carroll to the crew after the Las Vegas Raiders hired the 73-year-old to lead the franchise earlier this offseason. 

Not only did Vegas overhaul its coaching staff, but the franchise also shook up its quarterback room after trading for former Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith, who joins a division that boasts Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix. As the Raiders make moves toward contention, the remaining three AFC West clubs are looking to remain in the playoff picture after each of them reached the postseason a year ago. That includes the Kansas City Chiefs, who came up just short of pulling off the NFL's first-ever three-peat after falling to the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. 

All four of these teams were busy this offseason, and with the main roster-building pillars behind us and the 2025 regular-season schedule revealed, now is as good a time as ever to dive into the win totals for the AFC West clubs. Below, we'll give our initial takeaways on which side of the Over/Under win prop we see each franchise landing. 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs

Over 11.5 (+110) / Under 11.5 (-130)

With the oddsmakers favoring Kansas City to under its 11.5 win total, they are betting on something almost unprecedented in the Patrick Mahomes era. Since Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs have exceeded this win total in all but one season (2023). Of course, the division itself has become a lot more competitive, which is likely the key driver for these latest odds. The Chargers and Broncos reached the playoffs a season ago and have only improved on that roster throughout this offseason. Meanwhile, the Raiders have also improved, chipping away at some potential wins that K.C. previously relied on to get over this total. 

Beyond just the AFC West getting better, the overall road for the defending AFC champions will also be daunting. Based on their opponents' projected win totals, the Chiefs have the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL. That said, they'll likely be favored in the vast majority of those games. They also have the benefit of facing some of their more difficult opponents at Arrowhead, including the Eagles (Week 2), Ravens (Week 4), Lions Week 6) and Commanders (Week 8). So, while it'll be daunting, the Chiefs will at least be in their own building, which should result in at least a .500 record in those matchups, helping them go over this total. 

Best bet: Over 11.5 (+110)

Los Angeles Chargers

Over 9.5 +100 / Under 9.5 -120

The Jim Harbaugh effect was real in 2024 as the Chargers improved to 11-6 with him at the helm in Year 1 after a previous 2023 campaign where they managed a 5-12 finish. This offseason, the Chargers continued to build around Justin Herbert, giving him rookie first-rounder Omarion Hampton and veteran free agent Najee Harris as a new backfield tandem. L.A. added guard Mekhi Becton along the offensive line and bolstered the receiver room with old friend Mike Williams and second-rounder Tre Harris. When you pair those additions with some rising second-year players like tackle Joe Alt and wideout Ladd McConkey, the Chargers have cooked up a strong collection of talent on offense. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers come into 2025 after holding opponents to 18.5 points per game last season (second lowest in the NFL). 

So, if the offense continues to ascend and the defense maintains its ability to keep opposing offenses out of the end zone, the Chargers will be in a lot of games. Does that mean they'll get to double-digit wins, however? The oddsmakers believe that's a bit out of reach as they are +100 to get to 10 wins. I tend to agree as this feels like a nine-win club, especially with the gauntlet of teams they'll have to face down the final stretch of the season: vs. Eagles (Week 14), at Chiefs (Week 15), at Cowboys (Week 16), vs. Texans (Week 17) and at Broncos (Week 18). There's a possibility they are dogs in all of those games, which could result in five straight losses and put a massive dent in their win total. 

Lean: Under 9.5 (-120)

Denver Broncos

Over 9.5 +115 / Under 9.5 -135

Despite making the playoffs last season, the Denver Broncos find themselves with the easiest schedule in the division in 2025. In terms of opponents' projected win totals, it's the 14th easiest in the league, so it's not too difficult, but not necessarily a cakewalk, either. Denver should quickly pick up two wins to begin the season (vs. Titans in Week 1 and at Colts in Week 2), and there are other winnable pockets where they can inflate their record (Week 6 vs. Jets and Week 7 vs. Giants). 

While Jayden Daniels had a firm grasp of the national attention for his stellar play in Year 1, Bo Nix wasn't too shabby, either. As Denver pushed for the playoffs down the stretch over the final month, Nix completed 74.4% of his throws and registered a 110.9 passer rating. Of course, I don't expect him to keep that up for a full season, but he's shown us he can play at a level that can help Denver get to double-digit wins. That's particularly true with Sean Payton in his ear and with a defense that should again rival as the best in the league. Last season, the Broncos were tied for the second-fewest yards per play allowed and were third in points per game allowed. In the last few months, they've only added to that unit with linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and first-round corner Jahdae Barron. 

Lean: Over 9.5 (+115)

2025 NFL win totals picks, best bets for AFC East: Bills, Patriots both fly over projected total

Tyler Sullivan

Las Vegas Raiders

Over 7.5 +130 / Under 7.5 -155

Las Vegas went through the biggest makeover this offseason as it has an entirely new masthead. Pete Carroll is now leading the organization from the sidelines, and veteran quarterback Geno Smith will be under center. That instantly raises the floor from the previous regime that went 4-13 a season ago, but is it good enough to double their win total from year to year in 2025? The Raiders have the second-toughest schedule in the division next season, and begin the year with a sneaky tough stretch. They start on the road in New England before their home opener against the Chargers in Week 2. From there, they take on the Commanders (road) and Bears (home). 

Looking generally at the schedule, you can pretty confidently pencil in four wins: at Colts in Week 5, vs. Titans in Week 6, vs. Browns in Week 12 and vs. Giants in Week 17. That only gets you halfway there, and they likely won't be favored in any of those remaining games. You'd have to hope they split between the Chargers and Broncos, register an upset somewhere along the way and then hope the Chiefs are resting starters in Week 18. Seems like a lot of legwork to sweat out. The Raiders feel like they're one more solid offseason away from truly making a push. 

Lean: Under 7.5 -155