Top 10 2025 NBA free agents: LeBron James, James Harden top list, but what are the chances they'll leave?

Many stars will likely exercise player options before becoming free agents

NBA free agency isn't the frenzied bonanza it once was, as max- and supermax-level players tend to take care of their business through extensions, and then force a trade if and when they desire a change of scenery. This means that the days of monitoring Kawhi Leonard's travel methods may be firmly in the past.

When it comes to this summer in particular, the 2025 free-agent class is absolutely star-studded ... but with a major asterisk. The most recognizable names -- LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, James Harden -- will likely never even reach free agency. Those three, along with a few other key would-be free agents, hold player options that will probably either be exercised by their deadlines at the end of June or will be renegotiated into long-term deals. Either way, other teams won't get a true chance to make their case.

That being said, we see surprises every single offseason, and there are still a couple of difference-makers who could be headed to new franchises. Below is a list of the top 10 NBA free agents of 2025, along with the likelihood that they'll actually change teams this summer.

Top 10 2025 NBA Free Agents

1	LeBron James Los Angeles Lakers SF
Status: Player option ($53M) Chances of departure: 1 out of 10 LeBron James leaving the Los Angeles Lakers would be almost as big of a bombshell as Luka Doncic getting traded there in the first place. James traditionally puts pressure on his franchises when he holds a player option to ensure that they don't rest on their laurels, but there is absolutely no indication that he is interested in playing for anyone but the Lakers next season. In fact, reports suggest that instead of renegotiating a new deal, the plan is for James to simply exercise his player option and play out the season. That means that NEXT summer we could actually see James change teams, but that all depends on how the Lakers perform in 2025-26.
2	James Harden Los Angeles Clippers PG
Status: Player option ($36M) Chances of departure: 2 out of 10 Word on the street is that Harden is leaning toward declining his option, but it would be extremely surprising to see him leave the Clippers. The more likely scenario is a deal that aligns Harden with Kawhi Leonard's contract that ends after the 2026-27 season. Harden's eventual salary figure will be fascinating to monitor, since he was burned by taking a pay cut with the Philadelphia 76ers a few years ago and might be less inclined to do so again.
3	Kyrie Irving Dallas Mavericks PG
Status: Player option ($44M) Chances of departure: 0 out of 10 Athletes who have just had ACL surgery don't often decline money that's already on the table, and Irving certainly won't either. The only question is whether he'll exercise his $44 million option or sign a longer-term deal with Dallas, which would provide security for Irving and, presumably, some slight financial relief for the Mavericks. No matter what, Irving is going to get paid a lot of money to play very few, if any, games during the 2025-26 season.
4	Julius Randle Minnesota Timberwolves PF
Status: Player option ($31M) Chances of departure: 5 out of 10 Things are a bit tricky for Randle, who is expected to opt out of his $31 million option either to test the free-agent waters or to sign a long-term deal with the Wolves. Minnesota is facing an escalating payroll and will have a tough decision to make about how it can afford to keep Randle, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who can all become free agents. Chances are the one to leave won't be Randle, but there's enough uncertainty to make things interesting. There's also a Kevin Durant trade scenario which would likely require Randle's salary to execute, so that's something to keep an eye on.
5	Myles Turner Indiana Pacers C
Status: Unrestricted Chances of departure: 4 out of 10 Turner is the highest-ranked unrestricted free agent in the class, but reporting indicates that there is zero belief that he will leave the Pacers following a tremendous postseason that culminated in an NBA Finals appearance. That being said, Turner's rare combination of 3-point shooting and rim protection make him an attractive option for many teams, so he will have no shortage of suitors if he elects to dip his toe into the turbulent free-agent waters.
6	Fred VanVleet Houston Rockets PG
Status: Team option ($45M) Chances of departure: 2 out of 10 Nearly $50 million seems like a lot to pay VanVleet for one season, and it's certainly feasible that the Rockets front office can come up with more prudent ways to spend it. The most likely scenario is the team declining the option and coming to terms on a long-term contract with VanVleet, who has been essential as both a point guard and a mentor to Houston's youth. Either way, reports indicate that the chances of VanVleet wearing a different uniform next season are slim. Both sides agreed to push the decision date for the option back to the end of June, which gives Houston time to peruse any trades out there that would require $45 million in outgoing salary (*cough* Kevin Durant *cough*). You never know, but it seems like FVV is heading back to the Rockets.
7	Naz Reid Minnesota Timberwolves C
Status: Player option ($15M) Chances of departure: 7 out of 10 Barring a miracle of biblical proportions, Reid will opt out of his measly $15 million salary for next season to get something much closer to his value -- and it's going to be hard for the Wolves to pay him what he's worth. With the contracts of Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and (potentially) Julius Randle on the ledger, Minnesota will have to weigh the idea of adding another large figure against how it feels it could replace Reid, who possesses one of the rarest big-man skill sets in the league. The former Sixth Man of the Year has shown he's comfortable as a starter or a reserve, only adding to his appeal if he hits the free-agent market.
8	Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls PG
Status: Restricted Chances of departure: 5 out of 10 Giddey was one of the most statistically impressive players in the league during the second half of his first season in Chicago (19 points, nine rebounds and eight assists over his final 30 games), so his value may never be higher. One report suggests that he and the Bulls are inching toward a five-year extension that would pay him in the ballpark of $120 million. That being said, the flaws that made him virtually obsolete in Oklahoma City are still present, which may make suitors -- Chicago included -- wary of investing a ton of capital in Giddey. Rumors have also surfaced suggesting that the Bulls will only keep one of Giddey and Coby White, so it's certainly possible that they simply refuse to match any offer sheet Giddey receives if they think White is a better long-term piece.
9	Jonathan Kuminga Golden State Warriors PF
Status: Restricted Chances of departure: 7 out of 10 After a tumultuous first four seasons, it certainly appears the Warriors' relationship with Kuminga has come to an end ... or has it? The talented forward has expressed his concern about his role multiple times, and Steve Kerr recently said that he's not comfortable playing Kuminga big minutes next to Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler. However, the only thing that could seemingly bring Kuminga back is if the market for him is so weak that the Warriors end up getting him for a reasonable salary. That's why one report suggests that the Warriors might re-sign him and then look to trade him during the season to recoup some value. While that's certainly possible, there is also speculation that Kuminga could be involved in a sign-and-trade this offseason as Golden State attempts to bolster its roster.
10	Malik Beasley Detroit Pistons SG
Status: Unrestricted Chances of departure: 6 out of 10 After a breakout season in which he finished second in the NBA in total 3-pointers, Beasley and the Pistons would love nothing more than to run it back. The problem is, Beasley might have played himself out of Detroit's price range -- especially with Cade Cunningham's max contract set to kick in. The Pistons would likely have to use the mid-level exception of $14 million to sign Beasley, but that would handcuff them for any additional moves. There's also a chance that a team desperately in need of shooting throws a huge contract Beasley's way that Detroit simply can't match.