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The Thursday NBA schedule is highlighted by Knicks vs. Pistons (-3.5) at 7 p.m. ET, which would be a first-round playoff matchup if the season ended today. The contest matches up point guards in Jalen Brunson and Cade Cunningham, and not only do they share the honor of being All-Stars, but they also have the same NBA player prop at FanDuel Sportsbook. Each player has a line for total points at 26.5, with nearly similar NBA odds for the Over and Under. Brunson has scored at least 31 points in his three games versus Detroit this year, while Cunningham is averaging 29 against New York. Backing the Over for both seems like a logical decision for Thursday NBA prop bets. Brunson to record eight or more assists is priced at +108, while Cunningham to finish with 10+ assists is +190. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today's slate. On Wednesday, Oh backed Over 0.5 blocks for Josh Giddey, and he tied a career-high with three blocks to return +145 odds. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value.

Zach Edey Under 23.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120) 

The two-time college player of the year looked like his Purdue self last game with 17 points and 19 rebounds. However, that came against a team playing out the string in Charlotte, while Edey and Memphis have to face one of the league's best defensive teams in Minnesota on Thursday. The Timberwolves allow the sixth-fewest points per game, and three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert, shut down the rookie in previous matchups. Edey has averaged just 14 points + rebounds + assists in two previous games versus Minnesota, despite logging nearly 20 minutes a game.

"This is a sell high line that is a full 6 points over his season home average of 17.6 (22-8 under 23.5)," Oh said. "After his last 4 games with 36, 33, 22, and 27 PRA the oddsmakers have set this line too high." This prop is priced at -120 at both Caesars and BetMGM.

Dyson Daniels Over 3.5 steals + blocks (+128)

The league leader with 3.0 steals per game, Daniels went Over 3.5 steals + blocks with just his steals alone versus Atlanta's Thursday opponent, Brooklyn, in two prior meetings. He had four swipes in one game and five in another, while he also added a blocked shot in each contest. The Nets should also contribute to Daniels hitting the Over as earlier this week they allowed a season-high of 16 steals in a loss to a Toronto team that came in averaging just 8.0 steals per game.

"We are projecting 3.33 steals and 0.72 blocks making this a +$$$ bet on a line under his season avg (3.7) and projection," stated Oh, with the best value for this NBA player prop coming at Bet365.

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Precious Achiuwa Over 9.5 rebounds + assists (-105)

The Knicks have clinched a top-four seed in the East, and thus, they are sitting Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson for Thursday's matchup versus Detroit. Coming off an overtime game in which Karl-Anthony Towns logged 43 minutes, he's likely to be limited tonight as well, and Achiuwa is the player with the best chance to assume those frontcourt minutes. Achiuwa had 14 rebounds + assists when he played 28 minutes versus the Pistons earlier this season, and his numbers could resemble that performance on Thursday.

"His season over/under 9.5 is irrelevant," Oh said of Achiuwa. "What is relevant is his 9-6 over when he plays 28+ minutes and in 3 of the unders, he had 9 on the nose."

SportsLine's Matt Severance is on an impressive 141-81 roll on NBA picks and just locked in another strong play for Thursday. Visit SportsLine to see it now, all from the No. 2-ranked NBA expert.

Ryan Rollins Over 14.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115)

Rollins is the Bucks' starting point guard with Damian Lillard (blood clot) still sidelined, and the former has held his own. Over his last eight games, he's averaging 20.7 PRA, including posting 14 points, plus career highs of 10 assists and seven rebounds versus the Pelicans on Sunday. Milwaukee just so happens to face New Orleans again on Thursday, and the Pelicans rank among the bottom-five NBA teams in points, rebounds and assists allowed per game.

"The over is 7-2 when he plays 28+ minutes, and our 17.8 in 27 minutes is probably closer to his floor," Oh said before advising to jump on this prop at Bet365 before the O/U changes. "I would expect this line to steam up to 16.5 or more by tipoff."

Aaron Nesmith Over 10.5 points (-115)

Indiana is facing a skeleton-crew Cavs squad on Thursday that is sitting its three All-Stars in Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. Meanwhile, the Pacers can still improve their playoff seeding from No. 4 to No. 3, so there is an incentive in front of Indiana. Nesmith should feast on Cleveland's backups, and an added bonus is that this game will take place in Indianapolis. Oh says that Nesmith has gone Over 10.5 points in 69% of home games, versus 40% on the road.

"He just had a 7 point game (in 29 min), but the last time he scored 7, he responded with a 24 pt game and 4 straight overs," revealed Oh. "He comes in crushing this line with a 11-4 over 10.5 stretch and 15-6 if you extend it to the start of March." Some sportsbooks have Nesmith's line at 11.5, but DraftKings Sportsbook has it at 10.5 if you act quickly. 

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