NL Central odds breakdown: Cubs have let lead slip, but can anyone else challenge Chicago for the division?

Three teams sit within six games of the Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have held a lead as big as 6 ½ games this season in the National League Central. It was barely a week ago, in fact, but they've since seen that lead shrink to 2 ½ games. Heading into Thursday, there are now three teams within six games of the first-place Chicago club.

Will the Cubs hold on or will the Brewers, Cardinals or Reds take the NL Central here in 2025? Let's break down the division. 

The odds are from Caesars.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 47-33 | Odds to win NL Central: -270

The Cubs have had one of the best offenses in baseball pretty much all season. There have been small funks, but those happen to everyone. Other than Carson Kelly, there's no one sticking out as a guy playing way over his true talent level, meaning this looks pretty real and shouldn't change much. That means the expectation is the Cubs will have one of baseball's best offenses all season. 

The bullpen has been atrocious and then great. There's been a lot more great, too, as the atrocious part was limited to the first few weeks. Relievers combined for a 2.37 ERA in May and 2.81 in June thus far. 

The big question would be the rotation and Thursday afternoon serves as a big deal. Shota Imanaga returns from injury. If he's who he has been through his MLB career so far, it goes a long way in shoring up the thin Cubs' rotation. They still might need to add in front of the trade deadline, too, ultimately due to losing Imanaga for many weeks and Justin Steele for the whole season. Keep in mind that the Cubs have what is considered a deep farm system and club president Jed Hoyer, who hasn't made it to the playoffs in a full season since 2018, is only signed through this season. This is to say that I expect Hoyer to be very aggressive in trying to win now.

Simply: The Cubs are very well set up here. 

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 45-36 | Odds to win NL Central: +550

The Brewers have won nine of their last 12 games and have become pretty adept at playing well over what outsiders perceive to be their ceiling. Their shiny, new toy would be starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski, who is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 16 innings. He isn't alone, though, as youngsters Chad Patrick and Logan Henderson (currently in Triple-A, but had a 1.71 ERA in four MLB starts) have also been great in supporting ace Freddy Peralta along with veteran lefty José Quintana in the rotation. 

There's reasonable hope for the offense to be better than it has been, too. The Brewers run as well as almost anyone -- they enter Thursday second in the majors in steals -- and speed doesn't slump. All-Star catcher William Contreras hasn't hit nearly as well as he's capable. Center fielder Jackson Chourio is capable of better. Something re-clicked with Christian Yelich, who is hitting .394/.455/.670 in his last 28 games. This is to say that the Brewers sit 19th in OPS right now but the best bet is they'll be better the rest of the way. 

The bullpen, long a plus for the Brewers, is actually the biggest issue here. They have some good arms, though, and relievers as a whole are volatile. 

The bottom line is the Brewers are a playoff contender and will be all year. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Record: 44-37 | Odds to win NL Central: +500

How much hot and cold can you tolerate? 

The Cardinals started 3-0, but then sat 12-17. Then they won 14 of 17. They lost six in a row earlier this month but then followed it with seven wins in eight games. 

My hunch is that ultimately this is a team that finishes in the low 80s in wins as a mediocre, lower-tier contender. There is certainly upside to prove me wrong, though. The offense and defense are stocked with capable performers, such as Brendan Donovan and Alec Burleson along with the veteran stick of Willson Contreras and the still-there upside from players who haven't yet fully hit their stride like Nolan Gorman, Victor Scott II and Jordan Walker. 

The pitching is similar in that there is inconsistency but lots of talent, whether it's veteran talent like Sonny Gray or a younger arm like Matthew Liberatore. 

To reiterate my take, there will continue to be high highs, but those will be flanked with enough lows to prevent a playoff berth. 

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 42-39 | Odds to win NL Central: +1200

Similar to the Cardinals, the Reds can look amazing one week and brutal the next. Just this month, we saw them win nine of 11 games, then lose three straight, then win three straight. They have a superstar in Elly De La Cruz, but he needs some more help. Some of that will come from underrated leadoff man TJ Friedl, but where else? Will Matt McLain or Spencer Steer or Christian Encarnacion-Strand or Jake Fraley or ... OK, I'm losing energy here. The offensive personnel just feels like it should be better and it isn't. 

The rotation really intrigues me. If the Reds made the postseason, you could see them having a killer playoff rotation with Hunter Greene as the ace and Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo and perhaps Chase Burns in there. It's a nice group with a lot to like.  

The bullpen has provided problems, but over the long haul I trust that Terry Francona will continue to settle in and it won't be a major issue down the stretch.

That offense, though, I just can't get behind. It is lacking consistency to the point that I'm down on the whole team. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Record: 32-50 | Odds to win NL Central: +50000

Bob Nutting, I'm embarrassed for you. 

The Play

I think the Cubs are going to win the division and I'm sure enough about it that I think the -270 is perfectly acceptable value. The goal of a bet is to win, right?

If you are one of those people who desperately need to play plus money, I'd go with the Brewers, but I think it's a loser. I cannot trust the Reds or Cardinals, at least not to win the division.