Imagn Images

Paul Skenes hasn't been the same dominant force this year that he was as a rookie and will take the mound versus the Mets on Monday's MLB schedule. Skenes will face a vaunted lineup that features batters who have frequently been used in MLB player props this season, including Pete Alonso, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. Alonso is the only of the three that has tasted success against Skenes, going 2-for-3 with a double. The slugger's total bases MLB prop will draw the focus of many as he leads the NL in doubles (15) and RBI (34) while ranking third in total bases (92). His total bases over/under is 1.5 at Caesars, with plus-money prop odds for the Over (+143). Should you utilize this pick amongst your MLB parlay picks, or are there better MLB total bases props to pursue?

Targeting total bases props is a popular way to attack MLB betting, and with 10 games on Monday's MLB schedule starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, there will be a ton of value on the board. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB total bases parlay picks. 

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is on a 12-8 run on all top-rated MLB money-line picks since the start of the season. The model hit both of its MLB home run props on Saturday and is up 30.8 units on picks during the last 34 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB total bases props on Monday. These three picks can be parlayed for +596 odds and would win almost $600 on a $100 bet. 

Jeff McNeil Over 0.5 total bases (-140)

While Alonso is the Mets player with the most hits off Skenes, McNeil is the only one on the team with a home run off the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. He had a solo shot off Skenes last July and was the first player facing an 0-2 count to homer off Skenes. The bar is much lower for Monday as McNeil simply needs a hit of any kind to reach his Over, but McNeil just happened to hit a home run in his last start as well. A two-time All-Star, and the 2022 NL batting champ, McNeil gets a boost with this game taking place at Citi Field, where he's hitting .273 this season, compared to .214 on the road. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering the best price on this prop at -140 as McNeil is projected for 1.14 total bases.

Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+105) 

Maybe no player has the better combination of a favorable matchup history, plus facing a struggling pitcher, than what Tucker has on Monday. He's 3 for 4 in his career versus Marlins' probable starter, Cal Quantrill, including a home run. Meanwhile, you could make the case that Quantrill has been the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball. His 7.11 ERA ranks 125th out of 128 pitchers (min. 30 innings pitched), while his batting average allowed of .328 is even worse, ranking 126th. Then, once Miami turns the ball over to its bullpen, Tucker shouldn't face much more resistance as the Marlins have the second-worst bullpen ERA (5.05) in the National League. You should jump on this plus-money payout at Caesars, with Tucker forecasted for 1.82 total bases.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

After a couple of seasons that were plagued by either injury or suspension, Tatis is back to showing why he's one of the best players on the planet. He ranks fourth in batting average (.320), sixth in hits (47), eighth in home runs (nine) and ninth in total bases (91). He enters play on Monday on a five-game hitting streak, with 11 total bases over that span, averaging 2.2 TB. He's 2 for 8 in his career off starter, Yusei Kikuchi, of the Angels, with the southpaw sporting an 0-4 record on the season. RHBs like Tatis have feasted off Kikuchi as they have an .853 OPS off him, compared to a miniscule .395 OPS versus LHBs. The model projects Tatis to have 1.76 total bases.

Want more MLB picks for Monday?

You've seen the model's MLB total bases prop picks for some popular props on Monday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's best MLB picks from Matt Severance, who's on a sizzling 102-51 (+1904) roll on MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best bet for Monday's MLB schedule.