Corbin Burnes injury: How Diamondbacks ace's season-ending surgery could impact MLB trade deadline

Burnes will undergo Tommy John surgery next week and miss the remainder of the season

The Arizona Diamondbacks shared unfortunate news Friday, as manager Torey Lovullo announced ace Corbin Burnes will undergo Tommy John surgery next week and miss the remainder of the 2025 season. The D-backs offered no timetable on Burnes' return, but it's fair to assume he'll be sidelined well into the 2026 campaign. Teams tend to budget between 12 and 14 months for pitchers undergoing more traditional Tommy John surgeries; it's to be determined by the operating surgeon if Burnes undergoes that variety of Tommy John or a different one.

"I don't have the exact diagnosis or exact details, I just know that Tommy John involves a ligament and it's compromised and he needs to have the procedure," Lovullo said. "So, we're all with Corbin right now. This is a tough day to get this news, but we'll find a way to rally around him and play hard for him all year long."

Burnes, 30, signed a six-year pact worth $210 million with the Diamondbacks over the offseason. In 11 starts, he had proven worth the money by compiling a 2.66 ERA (156 ERA+) and a 2.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His contributions had been worth 2.1 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference's calculations, putting him on schedule to earn Cy Young Award consideration for the sixth season in a row. Those dreams are now dashed -- and with them, so too might be Arizona's hope of returning to the playoffs after missing out last fall.

Indeed, the Diamondbacks might instead have to settle for dominating the trade deadline. Let's touch on why, and then delve into some of Arizona's most interesting realistic trade candidates.

1. Already on shaky ground

Even with Burnes in tow, the D-backs were not on a trajectory that would've ensured a playoff trip.

The Diamondbacks entered Friday night's series opener against the Cincinnati Reds with a 31-31 record on the year after winning each of their last four contests. The D-backs are still 3 ½ games out of the final National League wild card spot, putting them behind two other clubs. And that's with a minus-3 run differential that ranks 11th in the NL and suggests they might be fortunate to have the record that they do. (Run differential is generally a better predictor of team performance than win-loss record in smaller samples.)

The D-backs are also facing a rough upcoming stretch, with three of their next four series coming against winning teams. It's not hard to envision a scenario where Arizona loses those series and slips further from a playoff spot over the coming weeks -- especially when you consider Burnes' absence may exacerbate a flaw.

2. Rotation could be fatal flaw

It's not much of a secret: the Arizona rotation -- already a weakness that ranked 24th in ERA coming into Friday -- now looks like a massive liability without Burnes in place. Take a look at how their individual starting pitchers had performed this season in various metrics:

Pitcher	GS	ERA+	WAR
Merrill Kelly	13	120	1.7
Zac Gallen	13	81	0.3
Brandon Pfaadt	13	75	0.0
Corbin Burnes	11	156	2.1
Eduardo Rodriguez	9	59	-1.1
Ryne Nelson	3	121	1.0

Zac Gallen and Eduardo Rodriguez are both in the midst of uncharacteristically poor showings. Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt is faring no better despite being bandied about in the spring as a breakout candidate. The D-backs have to hope that they can get at least one or two of that trio on track, all the while doing what they can to keep Merrill Kelly and Ryne Nelson hearty and hale. 

Further complicating matters is how their other internal options, such as Yilber Díaz and Bryce Jarvis, have offered no reason for optimism for the next few months.

Maybe the D-backs can help Gallen, Rodriguez, and Pfaadt return to form, or can find a creative way to hide the rotation's weakness. It seems more likely, though, that they find themselves on the wrong side of the playoff race in about a month's time. At that point, they'll have to consider opening themselves up to operating as a seller. Just what might that entail?

3. D-backs have intriguing trade candidates

While it would be premature to venture too far into the weeds on this matter, the D-backs do have more than a handful of veterans who are in the final guaranteed year of their contracts and who could appeal to contending clubs. The group includes Gallen and Kelly, as well as corner infielders Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, outfielder Randal Grichuk, and high-leverage arm Shelby Miller.

Of course, it's also possible that the D-backs do find a way to rally over the coming weeks, or at least remain close enough in the race that the front office decides it would prefer to take its chances down the stretch (perhaps with an eye on recouping value in the form of draft-pick compensation). 

Whatever happens between now and July 31, it stands to reason that the Burnes injury is going to have major ramifications for the rest of the season -- for the D-backs and the rest of the league.