Saturday at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open was a perfect storm of low scores from chasers and struggles from the 36-hole leaders. Combined together, that created a chaotic leaderboard heading into Sunday's final round with Matteo Manassero and Ryan Fox having vaulted to the top at 14 under.
Manassero and Fox started the day four shots behind 36-hole leader Cameron Champ but now stand three clear of Champ, who scored par on 17 of 18 holes with a single bogey on the day. There are three players tied at 13 under behind them and an incredible 24 players at 10 under or better -- all within four strokes of taking the RBC Canadian Open crown.
On a course that has given up plenty of rounds in the mid-to-low 60s this week, anyone in that group -- or even as far back as 9 under (such as Ludvig Åberg) -- has to feel like they have a chance at lifting the trophy come Sunday night. Exactly how wide open this will be will come down to whether Fox and Manassero hold up as the final pairing on Sunday.
Most local eyes will be on Mackenzie Hughes, a two-time PGA Tour winner looking for his first victory in three years. The top Canadian on the leaderboard, he dropped a playoff in the Myrtle Beach Classic earlier this year with Fox, ironically, prevailing.
Sunday at TPC Toronto will feature a wide-open race with little in the way of winning experience among those atop the leaderboard. Champ and Hughes are the only players in the top 10 with multiple PGA Tour wins on their resume. That should create a fascinating final round filled with nerves, low scores and more than 25 players believing they have a legitimate shot at the win.
The leaders
1. Matteo Manassero, Ryan Fox (-14): Both players have won multiple times on the DP World Tour, but Manassero is looking for his breakthrough on the PGA Tour, while Fox got his first win earlier this year in that Myrtle Beach playoff. How they handle the final-round nerves will go a long way to determining just how chaotic Sunday will be. They both must assume that, by the time they tee off Sunday afternoon, multiple players will have passed them on the leaderboard (given the scoring conditions so far this week). Perhaps that will free them up to not feel like they're protecting a lead, but they will still need to go hunting in the final round to prevail.
Contenders
T3. Lee Hodges, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty (-13)
T6. Mackenzie Hughes, Jake Knapp, Andrew Putnam (-12)
T9. Rico Hoey, Byeong Hun An, David Skinns, Cameron Young, Cristobal Del Solar, Victor Perez, Cameron Champ (-11)
T16. Adam Hadwin, Taylor Pendrith, Sam Burns, Shane Lowry, Nick Taylor and four others (-10)
T25. Ludvig Åberg and three others (-9)
There are some fascinating names in this chase group, led by the trio at 13 under who all put together incredible third rounds of 64 or better. The challenge for that group is backing up those efforts Sunday, and as we've seen all week, few players have been able to go low on back-to-back days.
Hughes is Canada's best chance at keeping its national championship in the Great White North, while three others -- Adam Hadwin, Taylor Pendrith and Nick Taylor -- are all part of the big group at 10 under. If any of those guys can get hot early and start climbing the board, they will send a lot of noise cascading around TPC Toronto for the leaders behind them to hear.
Jake Knapp was, briefly, tied for the lead when it was at 13 under before a bogey on No. 17, and he's been hanging around the top 10 all week and feels live. Cameron Young seems to have found something at U.S. Open qualifying when he outlasted Max Homa and Rickie Fowler in a playoff to earn a spot at Oakmont. He has backed that up with one of his best weeks of the year.
Champ is certainly still alive and will not have the same pressure on him on Sunday, despite his struggles on Moving Day. Burns, Lowry and Åberg are the most established star names still in the hunt, and they will be trying to post a score for the leaders to stare at as they come down the back nine.
2025 RBC Canadian Open updated odds, picks
Odds via BetMGM
- Ryan Fox (7/2)
- Matteo Manassero (11/2)
- Kevin Yu (8-1)
- Matt McCarty (17/2)
- Lee Hodges (9-1)
- Jake Knapp (12-1)
- Mackenzie Hughes (12-1)
- Andrew Putnam (28-1)
- Cameron Champ (28-1)
- Cameron Young (33-1)
- Shane Lowry (40-1)
- Sam Burns (40-1)
While there's the possibility of someone coming from that 10 under group to win, someone near the top of the leaderboard likely will shoot a low enough score to get the job done. Earlier in the week, I pointed to Fox and Knapp as good live options, and nothing they've done has dissuaded me from that opinion. Aside from those two, Hughes is tempting at 12-1 given he's going to have huge support Sunday. The concern there is that while he might ride that wave of support to the win, it also could turn into pressure that comes crashing down on him.