After a stop in Detroit last week, the PGA Tour will have another Midwestern visit this week with the 2024 John Deere Classic. It begins on the Fourth of July, and fireworks have become the norm at this event as over half of all editions of it have been decided by one stroke or a playoff. TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Ill., will host the John Deere Classic 2024, and the par-71 course has been a breeding ground for low scores. Entering the John Deere Classic 2024, the last five winners of this tournament have had an average score of nearly 22-under-par.
Sungjae Im, who has five top 10s this season, is the 14-1 favorite, just edging out Sepp Straka (15-1) and Aaron Rai (16-1). Jordan Spieth is at 20-1 in the latest 2024 John Deere Classic odds as he aims for his third victory at this tournament. Before locking in your 2024 John Deere Classic picks, be sure to see the PGA predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now with the 2024 John Deere Classic field locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 John Deere Classic predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the John Deere Classic 2024: Spieth (20-1), a two-time winner of this event and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top five. Spieth has often been heralded as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, and he'll enter this week's event ranked seventh in putting average (1.717).
However, Spieth has finished T29 or worse in each of his last nine starts on the PGA Tour, which includes two missed cuts. He's also struggled with his irons this season, ranking 70th in greens in regulation percentage (66.05%) and 110th in strokes gained: approach to green (-0.085). TPC Deere Run places a premium on ball striking, which doesn't bode well for Spieth's chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Keith Mitchell, a 30-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Mitchell had a seventh-place finish at this event in 2019, and he's performed admirably on comparable courses to TPC Deere Run. It's on the short side of PGA Tour courses, just like TPC River Highlands and Hamilton Golf & CC, and Mitchell recorded top 10s in his last starts at those venues.
Additionally, Mitchell is the best ball-striker in the 2024 John Deere Classic field, leading all competitors in both strokes gained: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee while ranking second in the field in SG: approach the green. TPC Deere Run has 11 par-4s, and Mitchell also happens to be one of the best on these holes, with a 3.98 scoring average that ranks 14th on the entire PGA Tour. Coming off a missed cut last week in Detroit, Mitchell's odds for this event took a hit, but his strengths should be magnified at a course like Deere Run. See who else to back here.
How to make 2024 John Deere Classic picks
The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 22-1 or longer who will make a strong run at the title, and McClure's best bets include a huge 66-1 longshot to win outright. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.
Who will win the 2024 John Deere Classic, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the John Deere Classic 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected John Deere Classic leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters and all three majors this year.
2024 John Deere Classic odds, top contenders
Get full 2024 John Deere Classic picks, best bets and predictions here.
Sungjae Im 14-1
Sepp Straka 15-1
Aaron Rai 16-1
Denny McCarthy 18-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Davis Thompson 22-1
J.T. Poston 28-1
Maverick McNealy 28-1
Nick Dunlap 28-1
Keith Mitchell 30-1
Jason Day 33-1
Kevin Yu 35-1
Sam Stevens 40-1
Beau Hossler 40-1
Adam Svensson 40-1
Eric Cole 45-1
Luke Clanton 45-1
Lucas Glover 50-1
Patrick Rodgers 60-1
Seamus Power 60-1
