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As we're now a quarter of the way through the season there is one thing we all need to believe, this offensive explosion is not going to slow down.
In the past we might have speculated defenses would catch up eventually, but with the current rules I'm not sure how they could. This does change how we evaluate players. It's a lot harder for Julio Jones to be a top-10 receiver without any touchdowns, for instance. In fact, let's start right there.
Calvin Ridley will be better in Fantasy than Julio Jones.
I love Julio Jones. He's a monster of a man on the football field. But this touchdown thing is getting ridiculous. Dating back to last year, Jones hasn't scored in nine straight regular season games. Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley has scored six touchdowns in his past three games. He's the top scoring receiver in non-PPR leagues heading into Monday night. You should start both Falcons receivers, but Ridley will be the most productive.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Remember that nine-game stretch for Jones without a touchdown? He has 907 yards over that stretch. I know we said coming into the season that the touchdowns would bounce back, and I know it's frustrating they haven't yet. But Jones isn't going to have a 1,500 yard season without scoring a touchdown. On the flip side, Ridley isn't going to score once every three receptions. I'd be looking to try to trade Ridley for a starting running back or an elite option at tight end or receiver, and I'd buy low on Jones.
Taylor Gabriel needs to be added this week.
With all the craziness of the first four weeks, it's nice when something actually makes sense. Taylor Gabriel looked like a sleeper heading into Week 4, and man was he ever. Gabriel caught all seven of his targets for 104 yards and two touchdowns. He even ran the ball once for 10 yards. The Bears have a bye in Week 5, so you won't have to make it too big of a priority, but Gabriel is someone who needs to be on a roster.
Verdict: Believe it.
For the season, Gabriel now has 29 targets, which is second on the team and only three behind Allen Robinson. Maybe more importantly, it's 10 more targets than anyone else on the team. While he's only averaging 8.8 yards per reception ( a pair of three-yard touchdown passes hurts that), he has caught 75 percent of his targets so far. As long as Anthony Miller is out, Gabriel should be a borderline top-30 receiver.
Jared Cook and George Kittle are top-10 tight ends.
The top two tight ends on Sunday were Jared Cook and George Kittle, which makes sense, because tight end is ridiculous. But these are two more options that you can "set it and forget it." Cook has given you a pair of 100-yard performances and just missed a couple of touchdowns in Week 3. Kittle has been good in three of his four games, and looks every bit the C.J. Beathard favorite. Start these two and stop stressing over tight end.
Verdict: Believe it.
There are only five tight ends averaging eight non-PPR Fantasy points per game, and these are two of them. That tells you about all you need to know about the position. The biggest key for both of them? Targets. Cook has double-digit targets in two games already (only Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce and Eric Ebron can say that), and Kittle has at least seven targets in three of four games. There's no reason to think these targets will disappear any time soon, so you should stick with them.
Everything is fixed for David Johnson.
Whew. Things were looking pretty dicey for David Johnson owners, but you can breathe a sigh of relief. In Josh Rosen's first start, Johnson got 25 touches, topped 100 total yards and scored a touchdown. He may not justify the top-five pick you spent on him, but those are true No. 1 running back numbers. As Rosen develops, this offense should only get better. Congratulations if you bought low on Johnson.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
Every single concern I had about Johnson still exists. His offensive line is still awful (those 22 carries went for 71 yards), and he's still not being used effectively in the passing game. Johnson had four targets in Week 4, tied with Ricky Seals-Jones for third on the team. It was also tied for the most he's seen since Week 1. It is going to be very difficult for Johnson to be a top-12 running back on a bad team with a terrible line and four targets per game. I'd use this opportunity to try to sell high to a team desperate for a running back.
Neither one of the Buccaneers quarterbacks are worth owning.
We knew Fitzmagic wasn't going to last forever and it ended in Week 4 with a whimper. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed just 9 of 18 passes for 126 yards and an interception before getting benched for Jameis Winston at halftime. The problem for the Buccaneers is Winston wasn't any better. In the second half he did lead one touchdown drive, but also threw two interceptions himself. With a Week 5 bye, there is absolutely no reason to roster a Buccaneers quarterback.
Verdict: Don't believe it.
You should drop Fitzpatrick, but I'll be adding Winston this week, not dropping him. As we told you many times in the preseason, this is a quarterback who performed very well when healthy in 2017. He was on pace for nearly 5,000 yards. I'm not going to hold one half of football against the fierce Bears defense against him. After the bye, Winston has matchups against the Falcons and Browns, and I'd imagine he'll be a top-12 quarterback in both games. In fact, I'd bet on him being a top-12 quarterback for the rest of the season if he stays healthy. Winston is worth holding over the bye and starting after that.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 5? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy Football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.
