Prospects tend to come in waves, and we're at the crest of one right now.
Usually, most big-name prospect promotions happen either in the first two weeks of the season or the final month or so – this is due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive system, which makes it so teams have a vested interest in promoting players in those windows. We also typically see a bump after the first couple of months of the season, when teams can promote top prospects while keeping their price in future arbitration hearings down – the so-called "Super Two deadline" (that isn't really a deadline.
And then there's the time of year we're in now when teams have apparently seen enough of either the also-rans on their major-league team or their top prospects destroying minor-league competition and decide that the time is right for a boost. There is some incentive to the timing – in waiting a few weeks, teams can lock in an additional year of service time, though those players will have four years of arbitration hearings – but the players who get called up at this point in the season tend to be the ones who force their teams' hands.
That was the case for Nick Kurtz, who got off to such an unexpectedly dominant start in Triple-A that he had the Athletics seemingly speeding up Brent Rooker's return to the outfield and even considering moving current first baseman and erstwhile catcher Tyler Soderstrom to third base. Kurtz will make his MLB debut Tuesday, and as Scott White wrote Monday, he's absolutely worth adding in all formats.
And he's not alone. Agustin Ramirez made his MLB debut Monday, and the Marlins new catcher wasted no time in showing off his unique skill set, swiping a bag and hitting a 110-mph double in his debut against the Reds. He joined Chandler Simpson, Luke Keaschall, Caleb Durbin, Edgar Quero, and Zac Veen among prospects to get the call in the past few weeks. All bring upside to the table, and if you want to know more about most of them, they were featured in this week's waiver-wire column here.
But there are still plenty of top prospects worth keeping an eye on down on the farm. Scott keeps a running tab of them in his Prospects Report column every week, and you can check out his most recent version here, where he talks about Kurtz, plus what went wrong for Matt Shaw – a sobering reminder that success isn't guaranteed even for the most seemingly ML-ready prospects. Before we get to the rest of today's newsletter, here's a quick rundown of the 10 prospects most likely to follow Kurtz, Simpson, and the rest to the majors in the coming weeks and months. Just in case you want to make sure you don't miss out on the next big thing:
- Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox – He can handle all three outfield spots, but the Red Sox have too many options there already. But he's continuing to rake, and I'm not sure he's not better than multiple players in the Red Sox lineup right now. The call could come at any point.
- Zebby Matthews, SP, Twins – Matthews got passed up for David Festa when the need arose, and with Pablo Lopez working his way back, there may not be another opportunity soon. Or there may be an opportunity tomorrow. They're pitchers.
- Jordan Lawlar, SS, Diamondbacks – The Diamondbacks are playing Lawlar at three different infield spots, but they also didn't call him up when Ketel Marte got hurt, so it seems like there is no rush. He probably needs an injury to Geraldo Perdomo or Eugenio Suarez to get the call.
- Bubba Chandler, SP, Pirates – I think at this point it seems reasonable to assume the Pirates are going to handle Chandler much the same way they did Paul Skenes last season, who made his debut on May 11. I'd be a bit surprised if Chandler isn't up by then, assuming healthy.
- Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles – Mayo has little left to prove at Triple-A, and the Orioles don't have an obvious need for him. He probably can't force his way up; he'll need Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O'Hearn, or Jordan Westburg to get hurt, it would seem.
- Dalton Rushing, C, Dodgers – The Dodgers opted not to call Rushing up when Freddie Freeman went on the IL, and I'm not sure what it's going to take at this point beyond an injury to Will Smith or Austin Barnes behind the plate.
- Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox – Mayer's path to playing time looks suddenly blocked with Trevor Story having a resurgent season. That Mayer is struggling in his first taste of Triple-A certainly isn't helping his cause, though there's nothing too concerning in his numbers. Mayer still looks like a long-term starter.
- Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Giants – Eldridge was getting some hype this spring, but he never really had a real chance to make the team, it seems. And now his start to the season at Triple-A has been delayed by a wrist injury. But he slugged his way to Triple-A as a 19-year-old last season and has the potential for a Kurtz-like trajectory once he gets healthy.
- Robby Snelling, SP, Marlins – Snelling has proximity and opportunity on his side, though the fact that he's opened the season throwing harder than last season and with a 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A certainly helps his case. He doesn't need to be stashed, but he's definitely a name to watch in the coming weeks.
- Brandon Sproat, SP, Mets – It looked like Sproat might force his way to the majors last season before running into some trouble at Triple-A last in the season, and he doesn't seem to have solved that level yet. But Sproat has exciting stuff and pitches for a team that tends to get the most out of pitchers, so he'll always be a name to know at Triple-A.
Here's what else you need to know from Monday's action around MLB:
Tuesday's top waiver-wire targets
Craig Yoho, RP, Brewers (3%) – Megill has been dealing with knee soreness and looking pretty shaky, and while Abner Uribe has been excellent, I'm not sure the Brewers are quite ready to trust him just yet. Does that mean Yoho has a chance to jump the line after getting called up from Triple-A Monday? Probably not, but Yoho has all the markings of a future closer, coming off a season where he had a 0.94 ERA and 42.4$ strikeout rate in the minors. He doesn't have the blazing fastball we're usually looking for, but he does have a freakish changeup that actually does evoke former Brewers closer Devin Williams. He's an exciting bullpen arm, and one to watch if the Brewers tire of their current options.
Gavin Lux, 2B, Reds (28%) – I was a bit worried about playing time for Lux, but that hasn't really been a problem, as he has started 21 of 23 games to date. And he's earned his spot in the lineup, hitting .378/.491/.467 with a massive 18.2% walk rate over the past 14 games, including a homer Monday. The quality of contact has been solid, and combined with the plus plate discipline Lux is showing, he's looking like a pretty solid points league option, at the very least – and a few more appearances at third base would be nice to get him triple eligibility.
Gavin Sheets, 1B, Padres () – With Luis Arraez on the concussion IL, Sheets just kept on hitting Monday, going deep for his third homer of the season. He's 7 for his last 16 over the past 16 games and is now hitting .344/.348/.557 for the season – and the most impressive part is that he's actually earning his strong start, with a .370 expected wOBA underlying it. Sheets tweaked his swing this offseason and has been raking since Spring Training, and if you missed on the high-end breakout 1B, he's a decent consolation prize (who also has outfield eligibility, which helps).
Jace Jung, 3B, Tigers (8%) – Jung was a pretty big disappointment last season, hitting just .242/.362/.304 in 34 games after being called up. Jung showed the ability to take a walk, but that was about all he had going for him in his MLB debut, which is frustrating since he was a pretty good power hitter in the minors. The hope here is that the second chance goes a little better after he was called up to join the Tigers Monday. Jung will probably be the larger half of a platoon at first, but if he taps into more power without sacrificing too much contact, he could emerge as an everyday option. I'm sure that's the goal for the Tigers, at least.
Jesus Tinoco, RP, Marlins (3%) – Tinoco has the last two saves for the Marlins, though Monday's was the first relatively normal one – he got the save in the 10th inning after both Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher had already been used. There doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason to the Marlins bullpen right now, and given how mediocre they are, that might be a reason to just ignore them altogether. But I know in deeper leagues, folks are desperate for saves, so maybe this is Tinoco's chance to chip in with a few.