One year after the Royals ended their historic postseason drought, the Blue Jays did the same, leaving the 2001 AL West champion Mariners as the game's most frustrated organization.
The road to 93 wins wasn't entirely painless, though. The Blue Jays sacrificed all of their near-term prospects in separate trades for Troy Tulowitzki and rental ace David Price, but they do at least still have the former to show for it. Of course, he's an enigma after struggling in his first stint away from Coors Field -- and at an age, 31, when shortstops often decline.
He's also a redundancy in this lineup. If there's one thing the Blue Jays have, it's right-handed power, which has been true ever since they rescued Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion from the scrap heap in back-to-back seasons half a decade ago. By joining them with Tulowitzki and AL MVP Josh Donaldson, all of whom figure to go off the board in the first two rounds of Fantasy drafts, well, let's just say that anything the rest of the Blue Jays lineup gives them is gravy.
And who doesn't want a heaping helping of that? Russell Martin remains one of the more underrated catchers in Fantasy, particularly in points leagues where his walks count for something, and Devon Travis, whenever he returns from a minor shoulder surgery, showed in his truncated rookie season that he can be a top-12 second baseman. Kevin Pillar and Chris Colabello maybe aren't mixed-league mainstays, but their numbers will sneak up on you.
Of course, the Blue Jays will need every run they get because their rotation sans Price is shaky. The return of Marcus Stroman, who missed all but the homestretch last year with a torn ACL, should stop the bleeding some, but he's more of a No. 2 or 3 starter, lacking the strikeout potential of an ace. The Blue Jays' faith in Marco Estrada may be misplaced, and J.A. Happ isn't exactly a big-ticket free-agent pickup.
Like their AL East brethren (every team but the Rays, basically), the Blue Jays are hoping to mask this deficiency with a surplus of dominant late-inning relievers. Their biggest move this offseason was to trade slap-hitting speedster Ben Revere for should-be closer Drew Storen, but all it has done so far is fuel speculation that Aaron Sanchez will get another a shot at a starting job. Judging by his previous stint in the role, he wouldn't be a significant improvement over No. 5 candidates Drew Hutchison and Jesse Chavez and should probably just stay put.
Roberto Osuna may also get a look at the starting rotation this spring, but even with Storen on board, he's the Blue Jays' best closer option.
2016 projected lineup
1. Kevin Pillar, CF
2. Josh Donaldson, 3B
3. Jose Bautista, RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion, DH
5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS
6. Chris Colabello, 1B
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Michael Saunders, LF
9. Ryan Goins, 2B
Bench: Justin Smoak, 1B
Bench: Dalton Pompey, OF
DL: Devon Travis, 2B
2016 projected rotation
1. Marcus Stroman, RHP
2. Marco Estrada, RHP
3. R.A. Dickey, RHP
4. J.A. Happ, LHP
5. Drew Hutchison, RHP
Alt: Jesse Chavez, RHP
2016 projected bullpen
1. Roberto Osuna, RHP
2. Drew Storen, RHP
3. Brett Cecil, LHP
5. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
4. Aaron Loup, LHP
Wouldn't you know that about the time we give up on Estrada as a sleeper, he goes and turns in the best season of his career? But was he really better, or was he just lucky, perhaps insanely so? See, the thing that made him a sleeper in the past, his strikeout rate, was the worst it has ever been -- and by a substantial margin. He allowed more contact, and as we learned during his disastrous 2014, contact for him means balls sailing out of the park. But not last year. Despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly environments, Estrada served up home runs about half as often as he did as a starter in 2014. But here's the crazy part: He had the fourth-lowest hit rate in baseball as a non-strikeout pitcher, resulting in a .216 BABIP that was the lowest for any qualifying pitcher since 1988. Danger, Will Robinson. Danger.
Only 15 players stole 25 bases last year. Pillar was one of them. Better yet, he was one of just six who also hit double-digit home runs, and the other five -- A.J. Pollock, Starling Marte, Charlie Blackmon, Gregory Polanco and Jose Altuve -- are all Fantasy mainstays. Pillar to this point is not, which begs the question: Where doesn't he measure up? He could stand to get on base more, but low walk rates are kind of the norm for this group. He's not competing for batting titles, but gosh, maybe he could. His strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game last year, virtually identical to Pollock's. He did that in his first year as a big-league starter, and nobody seemed to notice or care. Even if that's as good as it gets for the 27-year-old, he's a gem of a fifth outfielder.
The Blue Jays couldn't dump Happ fast enough last offseason, but there they were offering him $36 million over three years this time around. So what changed in between? He had that magical run in Pittsburgh after coming over in a trade last offseason, compiling a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts. The hope is that the adjustments he made under pitching guru Ray Searage -- primarily, an improved release point and increased reliance on his fastball -- will stick, but without that same set of eyes on him, he could fall back into bad habits. Assuming a fly-ball pitcher's second stint in a notoriously hitter-friendly park will go differently because of something he did during an 11-start stretch is just asking for trouble, so you shouldn't consider Happ anything more than a late-round flier. Be careful not to reach for him because of the Searage hype.
Prospects report
Now-departed general manager Alex Anthoupolos had to raid the farm system to get the Blue Jays back to the postseason, but their second wave of prospects always seems to be better than most organizations'.
Once again, that's the case as Anthony Alford, a project when the Blue Jays lured him away from college football, emerged as a viable five-category threat last year. For a player who only recently made baseball his top priority, he showed a good batting eye, but he's still learning to tap into his raw power and is more than a year away.
Jon Harris, the Blue Jays' first-round pick in 2015, may actually be closer even though he has yet to pitch in A-ball. He doesn't profile as an ace but is a safe bet to breaking into the majors, already boasting a four-pitch arsenal.
The Blue Jays' best two prospects otherwise are both boom-or-bust types. Max Pentecost is coming off two shoulder surgeries but offers rare offensive potential for a catcher, which explains why the Blue Jays selected him 11th overall in 2014, and 16-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a fun project for those with abounding patience.
