Today's best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Red Sox starter against Mets

After simulating every MLB game 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model has identified the three best pitcher strikeout props for Wednesday's 16-game schedule

Houston Astros ace Hunter Brown can become the first seven-game winner in the American League—and just the second seven-game winner in the majors—when he takes the mound Wednesday against the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The 26-year-old Brown (6-2, 1.43 ERA) has allowed one earned run or fewer in six of his last seven starts. In his last start he gave up only one earned run to the Rangers, but was outdueled by Jacob deGrom in a 1-0 loss. On Wednesday, Brown will square off against the Rays' Taj Bradley (3-3, 4.80). 

Sportsbooks have set Brown's total strikeout player prop at 6.5 (Over -128, Under +110), while Bradley's is 5.5 (Over +140, Under -165). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Brown Over 6.5 as a 2.5 star play on its five-star scale and Bradley Under 5.5 as a 3-star play.

However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Wednesday's 16-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout prop the model has rated at 5 stars and two rated at 4.5 stars.

Logan Evans Over 3.5 strikeouts (-109) vs. White Sox (2:10 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.0 strikeouts

This is the model's top pitcher strikeout prop Wednesday. Even though Evans (2-1, 2.57) has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts only once in four starts this season, the 23-year-old rookie is coming off the best start of his short career, throwing six shutout innings against the Padres. On Wednesday, he has a favorable matchup against arguably the worst lineup in baseball. The White Sox rank last in the majors in OPS (.614) and batting average (.216). 

Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 strikeouts (-151) vs. Mets (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts

Crochet (4-3, 2.00) has been excellent this season, but the model's simulations say sportsbooks have set his strikeout prop too high. On Wednesday, he will face a Mets lineup that is good against lefties; New York has a .733 OPS against southpaws, which ranks eighth in the majors. The Mets also don't strike out at a high rate; their 373 strikeouts this season are the ninth fewest. Crochet has gone Under 7.5 strikeouts in five of his 10 starts this season.

Carson Palmquist Over 3.5 strikeouts (-105) vs. Phillies (8:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

A 24-year-old rookie, Palmquist (0-1, 11.25) is still looking for his first major league strikeout after failing to fan any in four innings against the Diamondbacks in his major league debut Friday. However, the lefty has shown swing-and-miss stuff throughout his career. In 246.1 minor league innings, he averaged 1.3 strikeouts per inning.