Free MLB player props, odds, MLB parlay picks for May 22: Rafael Devers, Jose Ramirez among bets for Thursday

SportsLine's model is on a 13-8 roll on MLB picks and revealed its MLB prop picks and MLB betting picks for sites like PrizePicks, DraftKings and FanDuel

By Ross Kelly

May 22, 2025 at 4:07 pm ET • 3 min read

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Looking at MLB park factors could give you a leg up on MLB player props, particularly regarding runs scored. Some venues, like Boston's Fenway Park, are more favorable to batters, and the Red Sox will host the Orioles during the Thursday MLB schedule. MLB props like runs scored, RBI and total bases could be profitable for Red Sox vs. Orioles, especially with sluggers like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Alex Bregman and Rafael Devers. In fact, our model loves a Devers over on Thursday. Both starters from this game having ERAs north of 5.00 only adds to its appeal for MLB batter props, which can be used in conjunction with sportsbook promos at various betting sites. Henderson is +470 to hit a home run, while Bregman is +240 to record 2+ hits. If you're looking for even more MLB picks today, check out our best MLB home run picks.

Targeting MLB props is a popular way to attack MLB betting, and with five games on Thursday's MLB schedule starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later, you can find plenty of value on the board. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB player props. They can also help new users take advantage of sportsbook promos like the latest FanDuel promo code, bet365 bonus code, and Caesars Sportsbook promo code.

The model simulates every game 10,000 times and is up 26.75 units on picks over the last 44 days. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB player props on Thursday. These three MLB picks can be parlayed for +866 odds and would win well over $800 on a $100 bet. Check out the InsideTheLines blog for their up-to-the-minute MLB picks.

Best Thursday MLB player prop picks:

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (+129)
Lucas Giolito Over 2.5 total earned runs (-103)
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 runs scored (+114)
Parlay these picks for +866 odds (odds subject to change)

Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (+129)

Riding a 14-game hit streak that's the second-longest active one in the majors, Ramirez is producing more than just 1 for 4 efforts with slap singles during this run. He's gone over 1.5 total bases in six of his last seven games and had three hits in Wednesday's contest. The Guardians begin a four-game series in Detroit on Thursday, and Ramirez has found comfort in away ballparks this season. He has an absurd .341/.408/.602 batting split on the road and is averaging 2.2 total bases over 24 away games. That's close to what the model projects as it has Ramirez having 2.0 TB.

Lucas Giolito Over 2.5 total earned runs (-103)

Giolito will take the mound in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park tonight, where he has an unsightly 14.09 ERA across his two home starts this year, compared to a 2.84 ERA over two road starts. He's allowed exactly six earned runs in both home starts, despite facing two teams that rank among the bottom four of their respective leagues in runs per game. He'll now have to face an Orioles team which had 14 hits on Wednesday -- its second-most of the season -- and is coming off an eight-run game. SportsLine's model forecasts Giolito giving up 2.9 earned runs as Fenway won't provide much of a home-field advantage for the right-handed pitcher.

Rafael Devers Over 0.5 runs scored (+114)

You can't score runs without being on base, and few get on the base paths at a better rate than Devers. By leading the AL in walks, he's reached base safely the second-most times in the majors. He's scored five runs over his last five games, thanks to being on a seven-game on-base streak in which he's reached safely a total of 15 times. Devers is also in an advantageous spot in Boston's order in the No. 2 hole, which is conducive to scoring more runs, as opposed to being the Red Sox' cleanup hitter the last two years. As a team, Boston ranks third in the AL in slugging percentage, so there are several heavy hitters behind Devers that help drive him in. Devers is +114 at DraftKings, a better value than other sportsbooks that don't have this as a plus-money payout.