Conference tournament season began with two SEC teams and two Big Ten teams on the No. 1 seed line. While all four had impressive resumes, Notre Dame and UConn still had a chance to break into that top group.
In the aftermath of the major conference tournaments, I present a status update: the No. 1 seeds got the job done.
Texas and USC were probably already locks to captain their own regions in the NCAA Tournament, but they still reached the SEC and Big Ten championships, respectively. Waiting were South Carolina and UCLA, which each probably needed to reach that game to feel comfortable.
But Sunday's action wasn't about feeling comfortable -- it was about revenge. South Carolina lost its last meeting with Texas and needed a coin flip to earn the top seed in the SEC Tournament.
Ever since appearing as a No. 2 seed in the selection committee's last top 16 reveal, the Gamecocks had been going scorched earth, and that didn't change in a 64-45 win against the Longhorns, who previously hadn't scored fewer than 60 points in a game this season.
That set up an interesting situation, where the winner of USC-UCLA would be in position to claim the No. 1 overall seed. UCLA's only losses had come to the Trojans, and after trailing by 13 points early in the third quarter, it looked like the teams' third meeting in four weeks might go the same way.
Instead, UCLA held USC to just 22% from the field in the second half and closed the game on a 37-19 run to beat the Trojans and snap a six-game losing streak in conference tournament title games.
UConn won the Big East Tournament with ease as expected, but could only jump to the fifth-ranked team overall.
On the bubble, Richmond's loss to St. Joseph's in the Atlantic 10 Semifinals meant we got a bid stealer. Unfortunately for St. Joseph's, its loss to George Mason in the subsequent championship game means the Patriots are the A-10's second team in the NCAA Tournament.
That means Colorado falls out of the projected field. Sun Belt regular-season champion James Madison, which lost in overtime to Arkansas State in its championship game, is currently in the First Four Out, but still has a fighting chance on Selection Sunday to take another at-large spot out of the mix.
There are no more opportunities for bid stealers between now and Selection Sunday. Whoever wins each conference tournament will make it into the NCAA Tournament, plain and simple.
The biggest drama remaining comes in the Ivy League, where three teams are all positioned around the bubble. A three-bid Ivy is still possible, but it would probably require a Princeton-Columbia title game matchup and for the committee to have a strong view of Harvard.
Double asterisks (**) have won their conference tournaments. Single asterisks (*) are the top remaining seeds in ongoing conference tournaments.
No. 1 seeds
TOO. SMALL. B1G. BUCKET. 🪣
— UCLA Women's Basketball (@UCLAWBB) March 9, 2025
📺: CBS#GoBruins | @laurenbetts12 pic.twitter.com/PIBj0fMwhd
**UCLA (30-2, 16-2 Big Ten): NET 4, SOS 6
This will be the first NCAA Tournament seed No. 1 seed for UCLA and it's been well-earned, as this is already the first 30-win season in program history.
The Bruins are efficient from the floor and dominant on the glass. That all starts with Lauren Betts, who also became the first player in the last 20 seasons with 15 points, four steals and four blocks in a conference championship game.
**South Carolina (30-3, 15-1 SEC): NET 2, SOS 1
The majority (16) of South Carolina's wins have come against Quad-1 opponents this season. Its fellow No. 1 seeds are the only other schools even in double-digits.
When you play the type of schedule the Gamecocks have, a few losses are inevitable. But since the loss to UConn, South Carolina has won seven straight by an average of 22 points. Fresh off a ninth SEC Tournament title in the last 11 seasons, this still feels like the NCAA Tournament favorite.
Texas (31-3, 15-1 SEC): NET 3, SOS 2
At the end of the day, it's still been more than three months since Vic Schaefer's Longhorns have lost a game to anyone besides South Carolina. Even that was an overtime road loss against Notre Dame.
The SEC has been the country's top conference this season and Texas dominated it the way a title contender should. This will be the Longhorns' first back-to-back NCAA No. 1 seeds since the late 1980s.
USC (28-3, 17-1 Big Ten): NET 6, SOS 4
Entering the Big Ten championship Game, USC had won eight straight games against ranked opponents. While that came to an end, the Trojans have proven an ability to beat the nation's very best and will have a chance in any game thanks to the transcendent JuJu Watkins.
No. 2 seeds
Kaitlyn Chen
— UConn Women’s Basketball (@UConnWBB) March 11, 2025
FOR THREE pic.twitter.com/eYF2KbcxcB
**UConn (31-3, 18-0 Big East): NET 1, SOS 48
The Huskies know how the game is played. Because of the Big East's shortcomings, they need to play as difficult a non-conference schedule as possible to maximize their chances of being a top NCAA Tournament seed.
That was the case this season, and UConn had the No. 2 ranked non-conference SOS, behind just South Carolina. But they probably came a two-point loss against USC away from a No. 1 seed.
Notre Dame (26-5, 16-2 ACC): NET 5, SOS 8
After winning 19 straight games and starting the season 24-0 on American soil, the Irish enter the NCAA Tournament having lost three of their last five games. But with wins over three of the nation's top five teams, one would be silly to count out Niele Ivey's team.
With seven seniors on the roster including Olivia Miles, Sonia Citron, Maddy Westbeld and Liatu King, this is a team with tremendous experience looking to make a final stand with its core.
** TCU (31-3, 16-2 Big 12): NET 8, SOS 39
TCU's best season in program history has also been a career resurgence for Big 12 Player of the Year Hailey Van Lith, who was somewhat lost in the shuffle with last year's LSU team.
The fifth-year star led the Horned Frogs with 20 points in a Big 12 championship win over Baylor that moved TCU up to the No. 2 line.
**Duke (26-7, 14-4 ACC): NET 7, SOS 5
The final No. 2 seed should come down to either Duke or NC State, and this is one of the trickier decisions in this season's Bracketology. The Blue Devils beat NC State in the ACC championship Game and got redemption for all four of their ACC losses over the past two weeks, but the committee may also decide that Duke started too far behind the Wolfpack.
No. 3 seeds
Saniya with her third triple of the game 😊 pic.twitter.com/VzhypFpx0e
— NC State WBB 🐺🏀 (@PackWomensBball) March 9, 2025
NC State (26-6, 16-2 ACC): NET 16, SOS 26
Despite clocking in at No. 16 in the NET rankings, NC State is more than deserving of a No. 2 seed should the committee go in that direction. With eight Quad-1 wins and no losses outside of Quad-1, the Wolfpack profile as an elite team capable of making a deep NCAA Tournament run.
Last season, NC State entered March Madness as a No. 3 seed before upsetting both Stanford and Texas on a run to the Final Four.
LSU (28-5, 12-4 SEC): NET 10, SOS 28
The Tigers took their tumbles down the stretch, but most importantly, Kim Mulkey has said that both Flau'Jae Johnson and Aneesah Morrow will be healthy for the NCAA Tournament. A healthy LSU team is still a remarkably tough out, and hosting games should allow the team to get its momentum back ahead of its first major test in the Sweet 16.
Oklahoma (25-7, 11-5 SEC): NET 13, SOS 13
A nine-game winning streak came to an end against South Carolina in the SEC semifinals after Raegan Beers finished with just seven points on 2 of 10 from the field.
The SEC's leader in field goal percentage (66.0%) had averaged 23.3 points per game over her previous six games, shooting 75.0% from the field over that span. Beers reached the Elite Eight with Oregon State last season, where her team's run once again ended at the hands of Dawn Staley's Gamecocks.
North Carolina (27-7, 13-5 ACC): NET 20, SOS 32
For the first time in 10 years, North Carolina will be hosting NCAA Tournament games. It's a major contrast with the Tar Heels men, who are firmly on the bubble.
But UNC has shown an ability to win away from Chapel Hill should it reach the second weekend of March Madness, with a 15-3 record in road and neutral site games.
No. 4 seeds
How bout DLAW. 🔥@Dlaw10_ pic.twitter.com/0k5lut7gTo
— Kentucky Women’s Basketball (@KentuckyWBB) March 7, 2025
Kentucky (22-7, 11-5 SEC): NET 18, SOS 21
Georgia Amoore and Clara Strack remain a formidable one-two punch, but Kentucky's ability to string together wins in the NCAA Tournament may depend on the ability of other players to get involved.
Charlotte transfer Dazia Lawrence has knocked down 63 triples this season at a 40 percent clip. Teonni Key has 11 double-doubles this season and had four in a five-game span late in SEC play. Those are the contributions the Wildcats need.
Maryland (23-7, 13-5 Big Ten): NET 28, SOS 19
Michigan dropped the hammer on Maryland with a dominating 98-71 win in the Big Ten quarterfinals, but the Terps' overall resume is still deserving of a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament.
In each of Maryland's last three games, a different player has scored at least 25 points. Only the high-octane USC offense averaged more points per game among Big Ten teams this season.
Ohio State (25-6, 13-5 Big Ten): NET 19, SOS 31
Ohio State played one of the weaker non-conference schedules among power conference teams. With an 0-3 record against UCLA and USC, the team's best win probably came at Michigan in early January.
That being said, the Buckeyes have still accumulated 12 wins over Quads 1-2, mostly against the middle tier of the Big Ten. They'll hope that's enough to host games in Columbus.
Baylor (27-7, 15-3 Big 12): NET 15, SOS 41
One of the biggest winners of the past month, Baylor came a three-point game against TCU away from a Big 12 regular-season title and a five-point game against TCU away from a Big 12 Tournament title.
In fact, the Bears' last three losses have all come against the Horned Frogs. But second-best in the Big 12 should still be good enough for a top-four seed.
No. 5 seeds
Kansas State (26-7, 13-5 Big 12): NET 9, SOS 63
Ole Miss (20-10, 10-6 SEC): NET 12, SOS 3
Alabama (23-8, 10-6 SEC): NET 17, SOS 26
Tennessee (22-9, 8-8 SEC): NET 14, SOS 11
No. 6 seeds
Oklahoma State (25-6, 14-4 Big 12): NET 27, SOS 70
California (25-8, 12-6 ACC): NET 38, SOS 54
Iowa (22-10, 10-8 Big Ten): NET 24, SOS 18
West Virginia (24-7, 13-5 Big 12): NET 11, SOS 55
No. 7 seeds
Utah (22-8, 13-5 Big 12): NET 26, SOS 56
Michigan (22-10, 11-7 Big Ten): NET 23, SOS 14
Creighton (26-6, 16-2 Big East): NET 30, SOS 71
Florida State (23-8, 13-5 ACC): NET 25, SOS 42
No. 8 seeds
Michigan State (21-9, 11-7 Big Ten): NET 21, SOS 24
Vanderbilt (22-10, 8-8 SEC): NET 22, SOS 20
Louisville (21-10, 13-5 ACC): NET 35, SOS 10
Illinois (21-9, 11-7 Big Ten): NET 32, SOS 38
No. 9 seeds
Georgia Tech (22-10, 9-9 ACC): NET 29, SOS 50
Nebraska (21-11, 10-8 Big Ten): NET 39, SOS 27
Indiana (19-12, 10-8 Big Ten): NET 34, SOS 16
Oregon (19-11, 10-8 Big Ten): NET 42, SOS 22
No. 10 seeds
**South Dakota State (29-3, 16-0 Summit): NET 44, SOS 91
Richmond (27-6, 17-1 Atlantic 10): NET 33, SOS 81
Mississippi State (21-11, 7-9 SEC): NET 31, SOS 25
Iowa State (22-11, 12-6 Big 12): NET 36, SOS 37
Harvard (22-4, 11-3 Ivy): NET 37, SOS 114
No. 11 seeds
*Columbia (22-5, 13-1 Ivy): NET 41, SOS 85
Washington (19-13, 9-9 Big Ten): NET 43, SOS 29
Princeton (21-6, 12-2 Ivy): NET 48, SOS 89
*Grand Canyon (29-2, 16-0 WAC): NET 61, SOS 273
**George Mason (27-5, 14-4 Atlantic 10): NET 45, SOS 144
No. 12 seeds
*UNLV (25-6, 16-2 MWC): NET 46, SOS 136
*Montana State (28-3, 17-1 Big Sky): NET 54, SOS 250
*Fairfield (25-4, 19-1 MAAC): NET 51, SOS 223
*Murray State (22-7, 16-4 MVC): NET 56, SOS 112
No. 13 seeds
*Florida Gulf Coast (28-3, 18-0 ASUN): NET 59, SOS 307
*Ball State (24-7, 16-2 MAC): NET 73, SOS 108
*Norfolk State (27-4, 14-0 MEAC): NET 79, SOS 155
*Portland (29-3, 17-3 WCC): NET 80, SOS 347
No. 14 seeds
*Green Bay (28-5, 19-1 Horizon): NET 75, SOS 196
*Liberty (23-6, 16-2 CUSA): NET 85, SOS 121
*North Texas (24-7, 15-3 AAC): NET 101, SOS 249
*Southeast Louisiana (25-4, 19-1 Southland): NET 98, SOS 312
No. 15 seeds
*Albany (26-5, 14-2 America East): NET 111, SOS 289
*Lehigh (25-6, 15-3 Patriot): NET 104, SOS 314
*Fairleigh Dickinson (27-3, 16-0 NEC): NET 167, SOS 306
**UNC Greensboro (25-6, 13-1 SoCon): NET 139, SOS 272
No. 16 seeds
**Tennessee Tech (26-5, 18-2, OVC): NET 127, SOS 332
*North Carolina A&T (19-10, 15-3 CAA): NET 147, SOS 270
**Arkansas State (21-10, 15-3 Sun Belt): NET 142, SOS 342
*Hawai'i (22-8, 16-4 Big West): NET 146, SOS 268
*Southern (17-14, 15-3 SWAC): NET 193, SOS 79
**High Point (21-11, 13-3 Big South): NET 201, SOS 329
Last Four In
Iowa State (22-11, 12-6 Big 12): NET 36, SOS 37
Harvard (22-4, 11-3 Ivy): NET 37, SOS 114
Washington (19-13, 9-9 Big Ten): NET 43, SOS 29
Princeton (21-6, 12-2 Ivy): NET 48, SOS 89
First Four Out
Colorado (20-12, 9-9 Big 12): NET 58, SOS 52
James Madison (28-5, 18-0 Sun Belt): NET 53, SOS 103
Virginia Tech (18-12, 9-9 ACC): NET 47, SOS 47
Seton Hall (22-9, 13-5 Big East): NET 76, SOS 73
Other At-Large Candidates
Minnesota, Arizona, Quinnipiac, St. Joseph's
