EFL's final day: Promotion and relegation battles; Leeds, Burnley battle for first; Birmingham City set record

It's the last match of the EFL regular season and across the Championship, League One and League Two there's plenty to play for

The EFL regular season concludes on Saturday with plenty up for grabs across the second, third and fourth tiers of English football. Ahead in May lie the playoffs, two-legged semifinals and a Wembley showpiece that represents a second chance at promotion for those who couldn't quite get it done in the first 46 games.

Before then, however, there is plenty left to be decided. Only one of the three divisions has crowned its champions -- League One's relentless Birmingham City -- while every tier has playoff spots to assign. Wrexham might be bound for the Championship alongside the Blues, but could they be joined by embattled Reading? They'll have to secure a top six berth before they even think about that.

Meanwhile the relegation trapdoor is also teetering dangerously in the Championship, where five big names are vying to avoid joining Cardiff City and, barring a miracle, Plymouth Argyle in League One. Among the quintet are Luton Town, who a year ago still had very real prospects of surviving in the Premier League, and top flight regulars such as Stoke City and Derby County.

We start, however, at the very summit of the EFL:

Don't miss coverage of all the biggest EFL final day action, free on CBS Sports Golazo Network, as the Golazo Show brings you all of the biggest moments in the battle for promotion and relegation in one place. And every Championship game is live on Paramount+ alongside the games you need to see from League One and League Two.

1. Triple centurions

There is one true mark of greatness in the English game: a three figure points tally come the end of the season. Prior to the start of this season 16 clubs had reached the 100 point mark, 15 of them in the 42 game EFL and only Manchester City in the 2017-18 season of 38 game length. Never before had there been three centurions across the top four tiers in a single season but going into the final day that remains a very live prospect.

One team has already managed it. Indeed, League One champions Birmingham City have already smashed past the previous highest points tally in an English league season, a record of 33 wins, nine draws and three losses putting them two ahead of Reading's previous high watermark of 106 in winning the 2005-06 Championship. Win at already relegated Cambridge United on the final day and they will end the campaign on 111 points.

Blues manager Chris Davies had already said that the club's record would "never be beaten" when they hit the 105 mark but there has been a steady uptake in triple figure tallies over recent years, seven in the last 11 seasons. Still a 'Nelson' would surely stand for a very long time indeed as the best mark in the English professional game.

Neither Leeds United nor Burnley will be catching it, that's for sure. Both still have the chance to end the Championship season on 100 though and if either side were to reach that mark and not win the league they would be the first centurions not to be handed a league crown. Realistically that can only happen to Burnley with Leeds having a better goal difference by a margin of 13. No wonder, when they have been the Championship's best team by a country mile in terms of non-penalty expected goal difference.

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They might both be guaranteed Premier League football, but winning the league matters, as Leeds right back Jayden Bogle insisted last month. "Our aim from the beginning of the season was silverware. We're not going to stop now. Obviously it's nice to be promoted early but we still have got a goal in mind and we're going to do our best to achieve that."

For Leeds, that will mean beating Plymouth, who are almost certainly relegated given their inferior goal difference to those three points ahead of them. It will be altogether harder for Burnley, who face one of the Championship's form teams in Millwall. And the Lions have everything to play for...

2. The Championship's playoff scrum

It wouldn't be the final day of the Championship season without far, far too many teams trying to jam themselves into the last few spots for the promotion play offs. Sheffield United and Sunderland have long since settled into third and fourth. Below them it's a case of five into two, one of which is almost certain to be decided at the CBS Arena.

Playoff picture

	Team	W	D	L	For	Against	GD	Pts.
3	Sheffield United	28	7	10	62	35	27	89
4	Sunderland	21	13	11	58	43	15	76
5	Bristol City	17	16	12	57	53	4	67
6	Coventry City	19	9	17	62	58	4	66
7	Millwall	18	12	15	46	46	0	66
8	Blackburn Rovers	19	8	18	52	47	5	65
9	Middlesbrough	18	10	17	64	54	10	64

Remaining fixtures

• Bristol City vs. Preston North End
• Burnley vs. Millwall
• Coventry City vs. Middlesbrough
• Sheffield United vs. Blackburn Rovers

Bristol City and Coventry City occupy fifth and sixth place and their fate is in their hands. Still for Bristol it's a tricky game to round out the season, at home to a Preston side who have to win to be sure their 10 season stay in the Championship doesn't come to an end. If that promises to be dramatic, it is nothing to events in the Midlands, where it is win or bust for Michael Carrick's Middlesbrough. It's not much less than that for Frank Lampard's Coventry either, who would have to assume that they will get leapfrogged by at least one of Millwall and Blackburn if they only pick up a point.

Blackburn may be hoping their final game is an early warmup for a three vs. six playoff clash with Sheffield United while Millwall have a lot of work to do despite how close they are to the top six. A point at Burnley would be tough enough, but even then they'd be reliant on Middlesbrough beating Coventry, Blackburn losing at Bramall Lane and Bristol City losing by a five goal margin against Preston. Alex Neil's side have to win.

"I think the first goal in this game is going to be really important for both teams," said Neil. "Make sure that in the game, we've got an opportunity to win it. It's not changed for us for the last ten matches. So our approach will be the exact same in terms of our mindset." 

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James Benge

3. Five-way battle to stay out of 22nd

It may not be framed in quite the apocalyptic terms that top flight relegation for an established Premier League team is, but dropping out of the Championship and into League One can constitute an almighty hit for many clubs. Five of them go into the final day fearing the worst with Hull City starting the day hovering over the dreaded trap door. They do at least know that at least one of the teams within reach will drop points as Derby County host Stoke City.

Relegation picture

	Team	W	D	L	For	Against	GD	Pts.
17	Oxford United	13	13	19	46	62	-16	52
18	Stoke City	12	14	19	45	62	-17	50
19	Derby County	13	10	22	48	56	-8	49
20	Preston North End	10	19	16	46	57	-11	49
21	Luton Town	13	10	22	42	63	-22	49
22	Hull City	12	12	21	43	53	-10	48
23	Plymouth Argyle	11	13	21	50	86	-36	46
24	Cardiff City	9	17	19	46	69	-23	44

Remaining fixtures

• Bristol City vs. Preston North End
• Derby County vs. Stoke City
• Portsmouth vs. Hull City
• West Bromwich Albion vs. Luton Town

A point at Fratton Park might offer hope for Hull, given their superior goal difference, but whatever their result, their fate is not in their hands. That is because Luton Town have really turned it round in their final three games, winning all of them to mean that they can go to managerless West Brom believing in the great escape.

Might relegation be decided at Pride Park? Stoke would be safe with a point and would also offer a handy cushion to Derby, who could then only go down if all three of Luton, Preston and Hull win. Then again, on the final day of the Championship, those fighting for their lives tend to pull off quite special performances.

4. Crisis-stricken Reading need on-field hope

Precious little is to be decided in League One, where Wrexham and Birmingham are up, the quartet of relegated teams are confirmed and there is only jostling for positioning to be done between teams three and five. The identity of the team in last playoff spot could, however, be a dramatic one that might be decided on and off the pitch.

Leyton Orient currently hold sixth and would likely keep it with a win at Huddersfield. Fail to do so, however, and they would open a gap for Reading, on an eight game winning run and at home to Barnsley. Noel Clarke's side have performed exceptionally on the pitch, but almost every story about the Berkshire side in recent years has revolved around their ownership crisis. Chinese businessman Dai Yongge bought the club in 2017 when they were in the mix for a Premier League return. Since then his stewardship has inflicted relentless misery on Royals' fans, a string of points deductions sending them careening into League One in 2023.

Following a court ruling in China, Yongge was disqualified from club ownership in March under the EFL's Owners' and Directors' Test and instructed to sell the club by April 4. That deadline came and went but Reading were afforded more time, all with the threat of expulsion from the EFL hanging over them. Rob Couhig is the likely buyer, but his negotiations with Yongge have been tempestuous, to put it mildly, with the two sides facing off against each other in London's Commercial Court last month over the sale. An alternative buyer might be Robert Platek but his BDT & MSD Partners have lent money to several EFL clubs, creating a potential conflict of interest.

The latest deadline for Yongge to divest himself of the club is on May 5. Two days later the side who end the League One season in sixth play the first leg of their play off semifinal. This could be a trajectory altering few days for Reading... or they could slip further into the mire.

5. Can Walsall pull out of their tailspin?

Plenty is up for grabs in League Two. There's a title to be won and the last two playoff spots to be nabbed. Most of all, however, there is one last chance for Walsall to revive a season that had looked so promising for so long. When Mat Sadler's side beat MK Dons 4-2 on January 18, their ninth straight win, they had carved out a 15 point cushion at the top of the table. Across England's top four divisions no team had won more points, no team had scored more goals and only Leeds and Liverpool had a better expected goal difference (xGD). They were League One bound, surely?

However top scorer Nathan Lowe had gone. Their reluctance to keep the ball has been exposed. Arsene Wenger's old line about confidence going up by the stairs and down by the lift is ringing true at the Bescott. They have two wins from 20, a points per game tally that has them 84th among the 92 teams in England's top four leagues. The 16 points they have accrued in that time is the joint-worst in League Two. Luck has utterly deserted Walsall, who appear not to have just become a dreadful side overnight. Rank the top four leagues by xGD and they sit 21st since January 19, slightly better than Newcastle United.

The head room they built has been obliterated. With one game left they sit a point behind Bradford in the third and final promotion spot. Walsall will need a favor from Fleetwood Town before they even get into doing their own business. On the bright side, at least they are running into another side who have collapsed down the standings in 2025. After that win for the Saddlers against MK Dons their nearest rivals were Crewe Alexandra. They now sit 12th in the table following a collapse of similar proportions. Perhaps this is the day where luck swings back Walsall's way.