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The first-round series between the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning resumes Thursday with the Lightning down a game to their in-state rivals. The Panthers won the Stanley Cup last year and are looking to return to home ice for Game 3 with a commanding 2-0 lead. Tampa Bay has been one of the better teams in the league in recent years, winning two Stanley Cups and appearing in three finals since 2020. The Lightning went 29-8-4 on their home ice this season, while the Panthers went 20-19-2 on the road. 

The Lightning are -126 money-line favorites (bet $126 to win $100), according to SportsLine consensus odds, while the Panthers are +106 underdogs. The over/under is 5.5 goals.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, and you can see all of the model's top-rated prop picks for every game under the "Prop Picks" tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site. 

Here are the SportsLine model's three top-rated player prop picks for Thursday's Panthers-Lightning game, including what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay. 

Panthers-Lightning SGP (+471)

  • Nikita Kucherov Under 1.5 total points (-156): 5 stars 
  • Brad Marchand Over 1.5 total shots on goal (-168): 4.5 stars 
  • Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 total shots on goal (+118): 4.5 stars 

There's plenty of star power in this series, with Kucherov arguably the top player in this series. He's led the NHL in points in consecutive seasons, including 121 this year thanks to 84 assists. He picked up an assist in a Game 1 loss, and the model is taking the Under on his 1.5 total points line, rating it as a 5-star play.  Kucherov has gone Under his total points line in each of his last five games against teams with a winning record. 

Marchand, a longtime Boston Bruin, is now playing for Florida, and he's averaging 2.73 shots on goal per game this year. The model is taking the Over on his 1.5 line, projecting him to have 2.4 shots on goal Thursday. Marchand has gone Over his shots on goal prop in four of his last six games against winning teams. 

Rounding out Thursday's same-game parlay is Verhaeghe, and the model also likes the Over on his shots on goal prop line of 2.5, which comes in at plus money. Verhaeghe has finished Over his shots on goal prop in six of his last 10 games, averaging 3.0 per contest. The model projects him to record 2.9 shots on goal Thursday.