nathan-mackinnon-usatsi-cbs.jpg
Imagn Images

The race for the Stanley Cup is officially here, with three Game 1 series kicking off on Saturday, including a highly anticipated clash between the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. These two Central Division foes are no strangers to each other, and the Avs won two of the three matchups this season, with one coming in overtime. Dallas finished the regular season with 106 points, the third-best mark in the Western Conference, while Colorado wasn't far behind at 102 points. This matchup features plenty of star power on both sides, but especially on the Avs side with Nathan MacKinnon, who was second in points scored and tied for the most assists in the NHL this season.

Despite being on the road for Game 1, the Avalanche are -152 money line favorites (bet $152 to win $100), per SportsLine Consensus Odds, while the Stars are +127 home underdogs (bet $100 to win $127). The Avs are 1.5-goal favorites on the puck line as well, and the over/under is 6.5 goals scored. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, and you can see all of the model's top-rated prop picks for every game under the "Prop Picks" tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site. 

Here are the SportsLine model's three top-rated player prop picks for Saturday's Avalanche-Stars game, including what the payout would be if they were put into a three-leg same-game parlay. 

Avalanche-Stars SGP (+357)

  • Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130): 5 stars
  • Brock Nelson Over 1.5 shots on goal (-146): 5 stars
  • Martin Necas Over 1.5 shots on goal (-188): 5 stars 

MacKinnon is one of the best players in the NHL, as evidenced by his 116 points and 84 assists this year. He's also incredibly aggressive on the offensive end and led the league in shots at 320. In fact, he was one of only two players in the NHL this season to register at least 300 shots on goal. His total shots on goal prop is set at 3.5, with the model taking the Over with a projection of 4.6 for this matchup. It's also rated as one of four 5-star plays for Avs-Stars. MacKinnon has gone Over this prop in six of his last eight games against opponents with both a winning record and a top-third defense, averaging 4.9 shots on goal per contest over that span. If you're looking at another MacKinnon prop bet that's rated as 5 stars, the model is taking the Under on his total points prop of 1.5. 

The model also likes this former Islander to finish Over his shots on goal prop, and it's also rated as 5 stars. Nelson, now a member of the Avalanche after a midseason trade, has finished Over his shots on goal prop in four of his last five road games against winning teams. He's averaged 3.6 shots on goal over that span, and he's projected to register 2.5 shots on goal in Dallas on Saturday.

How about a third Avalanche player to go Over their shots on goal prop? And how about another that's rated as 5 stars? I believe we call that a hat trick. Yes, the model is also big on Necas exceeding his shots on goal prop, and his line, like Nelson's, is 1.5. Necas is projected to record 3.0 shots on goal on Saturday, and he's averaging 2.8 shots on goal over his last five road games.