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We are in the thick of the NFL offseason and have already crossed some significant mile markers en route to Week 1. Free agency and the NFL Draft are behind us, and the road ahead also got much clearer last week with the league rolling out the entire 2025 regular season schedule. 

With that in mind and as teams transition from emphasizing roster-building and gear up for OTAs and minicamp, we have a good sense of what each team will look like and where they're heading in 2025. That gives us an early opportunity to comb through and dissect their win totals, and we'll first look at the AFC East. 

For the past few years, it's been utter domination in this division with the Buffalo Bills currently on a five-year streak of winning the AFC East. With defending NFL MVP Josh Allen under center, Buffalo will remain the major player in the division, but other clubs may be on the rise. Both New England and New York hired new head coaches this offseason, while Miami has talent to contend so long as health is on their side. 

Looking at the 2025 schedule, it's pretty favorable for the entire division. Along with squaring off against one another, they have the NFC South and AFC North in the rotation this fall. Below, we'll take a first glimpse of each AFC East team's over/under win total for the 2025 season and give out our take as to where they may end up. 

Win totals: AFC East • AFC North • AFC South • AFC West • NFC East • NFC North • NFC South • NFC West

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills

Over 11.5 (-145) / Under 11.5 (+125)

The Bills are favored to win at least 12 games in 2025, and it's hard to go against that. When looking at strength of schedule, you can go in a couple of directions. For the most part, folks point to their upcoming opponents' combined win percentage from the previous year to determine how difficult the path forward will be. There, the Bills have a top-10 easiest schedule. However, the better way to determine strength of schedule, in my humble opinion, is to use the opponents' projected win totals for this year. If we do that, as Sharp Football Analysis points out, Buffalo has the fifth-easiest schedule in the league. They've also gone over this win total in three of the last five seasons. 

One fortunate aspect of Buffalo's 2025 schedule is that all of their heavy-hitter opponents will be played at home: vs. Ravens (Week 1), vs. Chiefs (Week 9), vs. Buccaneers (Week 11), vs. Bengals (Week 14), and vs. Eagles (Week 17). That sets up a high floor in those contests, furthering the ability to inflate their win total. On top of taking the Over 11.5, I'd also look for Buffalo to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC at +270 (currently the betting favorite).

Best bet: Over 11.5

Miami Dolphins

Over 8.5 (+130) / Under 8.5 (-155)

The Dolphins feel like a tired roster. Their offseason didn't jump off the page, and there's still the looming departure of cornerback Jalen Ramsey, further putting a dent in the overall talent on the depth chart. Of course, Miami continues to have a high-flying offense with various highly-talented skill position players like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That said, the ceiling does seem to be capped due to the question of Tua Tagovailoa's availability over an 18-week season. As we saw last season, if Tagovailoa isn't in the lineup, the offense craters, and I expect that to be the case again in 2025 if he misses time with Zach Wilson and rookie Quinn Ewers behind him. 

While easier than most other clubs in the league, the Dolphins do face a remarkably tough stretch in the middle of the year. Beginning in Week 8, they travel down to Atlanta to face the Falcons, and then host the Ravens, Bills, and Commanders before hitting the Week 12 bye. That could very well result in four straight losses and take the win out of their sails entirely. There's also a gut punch at the end of the year as well, squaring off against the Bengals and Buccaneers at home before heading up to Foxborough to face the Patriots in the Week 18 finale, setting the stage for another possible losing streak. I think eight wins is Miami's ceiling for 2025, making the under 8.5 win total a best bet. 

Best bet: Under 8.5 

New York Jets

Over 5.5 (-130) / Under 5.5 (+110)

Just like last year, I like New York's overall talent. Also similar to last season, there's a major question of whether they'll be able to take that talent and mold it into a competitive football team. The Jets hired Aaron Glenn to be their next head coach and opted for Justin Fields as their quarterback, and said goodbye to Aaron Rodgers. Defensively, Glenn should be able to get the most out of a defense that boasts Sauce Gardner, Quinnen Williams, and an array of pass rushers. The key to the season, however, is Fields. If he can be the latest late-career bloomer at quarterback, the Jets will fly over this total. If he's more of a run-first QB with limited passing prowess, it'll be more of a sweat. The Jets likely won't be favored in many games in 2025, but the end of the season should provide them enough of a lane to get to six wins, especially if Buffalo is resting starters in Week 18.

Lean: Over 5.5

New England Patriots

Over 7.5 (-150) / Under 7.5 (+125)

New England unquestionably went through the biggest overhaul this offseason. Not only did they hire Mike Vrabel to be their next head coach, but the Patriots also spent big in free agency and came away with a number of potential impact players at the NFL Draft. When you factor those additions and heightened floor with the new coaching staff along with a Year 2 bump by quarterback Drake Maye, New England has promise to be a wild-card club in the AFC. That's especially true considering they have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on opponents' projected win totals. So, that means they register at least 8 wins to go over this total, and I think flirt with double-digit victories, making the alternate win total of Over 9.5 (+175) an attractive look. 

Best bet: Over 7.5