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Last week, we took a look at the betting market for most wins in the 2025 NFL season, highlighting key value plays from our best bet at +1300 to our favorite longshot at +8000. Today, we're targeting the other extreme and breaking down the market for fewest wins, and interested bettors can use a DraftKings promo code to sign up and place bets for that market.

Last year, the Titans, Giants and Browns tied for the fewest wins, so bettors at DraftKings who had any of those teams in the most wins futures market won at one-third price of the odds they bet (called a dead-heat reduction). For 2025, the Browns are favored to repeat with the fewest wins at +400, with the Saints just behind at +425. What's interesting is that when looking at the win total markets, the Saints are seen as having a much stronger likelihood of finishing Over 4.5 wins (-230 versus -160 for the Browns), so if the fewest wins market is accurate, there could be some value betting the Saints to finish Under 6.5 wins at -180.

Since the NFL schedule was released earlier in May, the CBS Sports NFL team has broken down the win total markets of the Saints and every other team by division, covering the NFC East, NFC North, NFC South and NFC West this week and the AFC last week. We also shared the SportsLine Projection Model's best win total picks in both the AFC and NFC earlier this month.

Below, you can find the odds for every team to have the fewest wins at DraftKings as of May 30. Then, I'll share my favorite pick in the market along with a few interesting longer shots.

Odds to have fewest wins (DraftKings)

TeamOddsWin Total2024 Wins
Browns+4004.53
Saints+4256.55
Giants+6005.53
Jets+8005.55
Titans+12005.53
Raiders+14006.54
Panthers+14006.55
Colts+17007.58
Dolphins+25008.58
Jaguars+30007.54
Cowboys+30007.57
Falcons+30007.58
Steelers+35008.510
Seahawks+50008.510
Cardinals+55008.58
Texans+55009.510
Bears+55008.55
Vikings+70008.514
Patriots+70008.54
Bengals+90009.59
Packers+120009.511
Chargers+120009.511
Rams+130009.510
Broncos+130009.510
Buccaneers+150009.510
Commanders+150009.512
49ers+2000010.56
Lions+2000010.515
Chiefs+3000011.515
Eagles+3500011.514
Ravens+6000011.512
Bills+8000011.513

Best bet: Giants +600

I agree that the Browns should be favored in this market, and I was hoping to back the Saints at a price I expected to be better at +425. I'm going to pivot away from both teams and make the Giants my best bet as I don't believe there should be as much separation between them and the two favorites in odds as there is.

One mark against backing the Saints is that they have one of the easiest schedules in the league. That's not the case for the Browns and Giants, who have to deal with the two toughest schedules in the league. The Giants in particular have a brutal first-half schedule that could see Brian Daboll lose his job by midseason and leave the Giants playing out the string while giving Jaxson Dart some run behind a questionable offensive line to see if he's the answer or if they will be looking for another QB in the draft (perhaps another Manning in Giant Blue?).

Bad teams have a better chance of stealing wins at home in the softer matchups on their schedules, but what qualifies as soft for the Giants? They host the Chiefs, Chargers, Eagles, 49ers, Packers and Commanders before getting the Vikings in Week 16 and the Cowboys in Week 18. Those matchups may end up determining whether they'll wind up with the No. 1 overall pick. On the road, the Giants get to play the Saints, Bears, Patriots and Raiders, but the only team in that group not expected to be at least a tier above the Giants in terms of quality is the Saints, and we've mentioned their easy schedule could make it hard to win this prop.

Any of the top three favorites in this prop have a great chance at taking home the win, but I'll back the team getting the longest odds of the trio.

Mid-range value: Jaguars +3000

The Jaguars won just four games last year, yet they are being treated in the market like an eight-win team that just got unlucky. Maybe you can point to the Trevor Lawrence injury, but Jacksonville was only 2-8 with Lawrence at quarterback with one convincing win at home against the Patriots. They managed to sweep the Titans late in the season with Mac Jones at quarterback, but otherwise it was a dismal season that featured losses to the Browns, Bears, Jets and Raiders with a split against the Colts.

With their struggles on both sides of the ball, the Jaguars' projection seems to me pretty aggressive with the unknown of a first-time head coach taking the reins. It figures to bank a lot on an easy schedule that didn't seem to matter much last year as well as Trevor Lawrence finally reaching a level of play that we haven't seen consistently from the former No. 1 overall pick in four years, as is evidenced by his 22-38 record as a starter.

I do like what the Jaguars did in the offseason, but it may take time for everything to come together. I'd give them a better chance of hitting the extreme negative scenario and cashing as a moderate longshot in this prop than I would some of the teams with similar odds like the Falcons and Dolphins.

Top sleeper: Patriots +7000

The market seems to be head over heels when it comes to the Patriots this year. We took a look at the aggregate point spreads at DraftKings this week, and the Patriots surprisingly are slight favorites in aggregate for their 17-game schedule. This for a team that was a Week 18 win against a Bills team resting players away from finishing tied for the fewest number of wins in the league last year while finishing 30th in points scored.

The Patriots have made some key additions this offseason (which you can say about virtually every team), but it's hard to say whether a castoff like Stefon Diggs or a rookie like Will Campbell will make an appreciable difference. I'm chalking most of the Patriots' improvements up to two factors: expected growth of quarterback Drake Maye and the presence of Mike Vrabel.

I'm a big fan of Maye and hope that he has enough support in the Patriots offense to develop into a quality starter, but at this point that's nothing but projection for 2025. Vrabel has undoubtedly gotten the most out of his teams while coaching the Titans, often winning more games than expected, and it's likely he does enough of that here to keep the Patriots from finishing in the basement. But both Maye and Vrabel carrying this team to a winning record are optimistic projections at this point that I think is being overvalued in this market.

The Patriots do have one of the easiest schedules in the league, so if you're looking for an alternate in this range, I also don't mind a play on a Vikings team with a question mark at quarterback in J.J. McCarthy.

Top longshot: Broncos +13000

The Broncos were the most surprising playoff team of 2024 for me with a rookie at quarterback many projected wasn't worth a first-round pick. Bo Nix outplayed those expectations en route to a fine rookie season, but we have seen plenty of regression from quarterbacks in their second seasons. None of the additions the Broncos made around him, which include free-agent tight end Evan Engram as well as Day 2 rookies RJ Harvey and Pat Bryant, are locks to be difference-makers in the offense, and with more tape to study on Nix it's possible the Denver offense takes a step backwards this year in a tough division.

If the defense plays up to expectations, it would take a truly dismal season from Nix to put this team anywhere in range of the fewest wins. They were third in points allowed in 2024 and some expect them to be the best defense in the league this year. But it was just one year prior that the Broncos finished 27th in points allowed with the same defensive coordinator and much of the same personnel.

I'm not saying last year's performance wasn't meaningful or even more in line with what we should expect in 2025, but there's a huge range of outcomes between third and 27th that, when coupled with a potential regression from the offense, could put this team in range to cash as a major longshot in this prop.