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Sam Darnold is the second quarterback in as many years to leave Minnesota for a rich deal elsewhere, landing a three-year, $100.5 million contract with the Seahawks with $55 million guaranteed.

Hopefully, his career doesn't crater like Kirk Cousins' did.

Under the guidance of Kevin O'Connell, including his playoff game, Darnold averaged 22.2 Fantasy points per game in six-point passing leagues in 2024, good enough for eighth-best at the position. Among all qualifying passers Darnold finished ninth in pass attempts per game (32.5) with the Vikes, sixth in total passing yards (4,564) and seventh in yards per attempt (7.8), fifth in touchdowns and TD rate (36 and 6.2%).

He was also aggressive, finishing top-five in pass attempts of 15-plus air yards (23.6%). Darnold completed 50% (69 of 138) for a league-best 1,891 yards and 10 touchdowns ... and eight interceptions with a 23.9% off-target rate. 

Of course these numbers make Darnold sound (mostly) like a good quarterback. But we all remember what happened in Week 18 (a game for the division and a first-round bye) and again in the playoffs: Pressured on a whopping 51.6% of his dropbacks, Darnold completed 53.1% of his passes for 5.1 yards per attempt and one touchdown with a 21% off-target rate.

If that's the quarterback the Seahawks are getting, Fantasy managers will be disgusted. If he's more like the guy who emerged as a great starter for the first 17 weeks of last season, then Fantasy managers will be elated, particularly because Darnold figures to be a Draft Day bargain.

The good news for Darnold is that he'll reunite with Klint Kubiak, who was his passing game coach in San Francisco in 2023. Kubiak should run an offense that's similar to what Darnold was in last year with the Vikings, so it's not like he'll have major adjustments to make.

But that might be the only positive. In the last two weeks, the Seahawks purged their receiving corps, leaving them with Jaxon Smith-Njigba as their only established receiver. That's a three-story step-down from what Darnold had at his disposal in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and other complementary targets. Save for a big trade on Draft Day, we're probably looking at a group that will feel underwhelming and mostly unproven.

Worse yet is the offensive line, which stands to improve from last year's bleak showing. Pro Football Focus graded them out as the 24th-ranked run-blocking unit and 26th-ranked pass-blocking unit. Even with splashes in free agency and the draft, this could be a problem.

Especially since Darnold completely regressed when pressure was put on him all year and especially in those final two games. By comparison, Geno Smith had a better regular-season completion rate (56.8%) when pressured last year than Darnold did (49.7%).

Maybe the best thing Darnold will do is hand off to his running backs -- Seattle has a great pair in Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. They'll rack up touches in Kubiak's offense, that's not an issue. Any O-line improvement will help them a bunch, and Walker should fit in as a No. 2 running back with Charbonnet as a high-end backup. But that won't help Darnold return to the 20-point range among Fantasy QBs.

Let's state the obvious: Darnold won't be a popular Fantasy pick. He won't get picked in one-QB leagues and he's almost certain to not be one of the first 20 passers to get taken in a two-QB league. Some might opt for a quarterback who runs like Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson over Darnold on Draft Day because they have more theoretical upside.

And the only reason why he'd be good for Smith-Njigba is because the young receiver has a chance to earn 10-plus targets per game. He's Seattle's best hope in the passing game and it's volume we're going to bank on. But I certainly wouldn't reach for him, nor would I expect a bunch of deep targets going his way from Darnold. Last year, Smith-Njigba had 35 targets on routes of 15-plus air yards and caught 18 of them for 413 yards and three scores. None of those numbers were particularly elite and they only get worse when you push the air yardage higher (seven grabs on 19 targets last year on throws of 20-plus air yards). 

We could hope for Smith-Njigba to take a jump in red-zone targets with the Seattle receiving corps cleaned out. Last season he had just 13 red-zone targets and caught seven (53.8% catch rate) with five touchdowns. We'll need those numbers to get bumped for Smith-Njigba to return value as a top-15 receiver in full-PPR leagues and at any ADP no matter where you take him in half- and non-PPR leagues. He's someone to be at least a little cautious of with Darnold taking over at quarterback, and he's the only Seahawks wide receiver or tight end worth drafting as of early March.