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It happens every year. A quarterback rises from some degree of obscurity into the first round, and often times said prospect vaults all the into the top-five selections or can even go No. 1 overall, like Kyler Murray in 2019 or Joe Burrow the year after. Heck, even Baker Mayfield in 2018 was mostly viewed as a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick during his final season at Oklahoma, then went No. 1 overall a few months later. 

While we're nearing the midway point of the 2024 college football season, I currently believe the 2025 iteration of that quarterback to be Garrett Nussmeier from LSU. This is a former highly touted four-star recruit who sat for essentially three seasons behind Max Johnson then Jayden Daniels -- while throwing for 294 yards on 15 completions in the SEC title game against eventual national-title winning Georgia in a relief appearance in 2022 -- and is now operating the Tigers offense like a passer who's gained a wealth of knowledge along the way in college. 

While his 64.3% completion rate is relatively low based on new-age standards for the position at the collegiate level, he's not running a gimmicky, screen-heavy attack. He's ripping the football downfield often, from a variety of arm angles to a litany of pass-catching options. His 10.2 average depth of target (aDOT) currently ranks second among legitimate 2025 quarterback prospects, trailing only Alabama's Jalen Milroe at 10.5 yards. 

Because of my belief in Nussmeier's eventual ascension -- again, based on what he's demonstrated so far in 2024 -- he sneaks into the first round in this mock draft.

The draft order below was determined using the current 2025 NFL Draft order. To check out the sports betting odds on who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, head on over to FanDuel sportsbook.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on "With the First Pick" -- our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find "With the First Pick" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen below!

NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Colorado • Jr • 6'1" / 185 lbs
Projected Team
New England
PROSPECT RNK
1st
POSITION RNK
1st
REC
49
REYDS
587
YDS/REC
12
TDS
6
Every week, Hunter is tracking closer to being the No. 1 overall pick. He's been sensational in every regard as a receiver and cornerback and has elite-level traits that can translate at the next level. And this prospect-team pairing stays intact. Best player in the draft with elite upside at two positions.
Round 1 - Pick 2
LSU • Jr • 6'6" / 323 lbs
Projected Team
Cleveland
PROSPECT RNK
5th
POSITION RNK
1st
A team once lauded for its offensive line still has a good one. Can it be improved? Absolutely. Particularly on the edges. That's where Campbell could step in.
Round 1 - Pick 3
Michigan • Jr • 6'2" / 202 lbs
Projected Team
Jacksonville
PROSPECT RNK
2nd
POSITION RNK
1st
The Jaguars are spiraling, and their defense needs a talent infusion at cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell. Johnson has No. 1 outside cornerback length, athleticism, and ball skills.
Round 1 - Pick 4
Miami (FL) • Sr • 6'2" / 223 lbs
Projected Team
Carolina
PROSPECT RNK
6th
POSITION RNK
1st
PAYDS
2219
RUYDS
161
INTS
5
TDS
23
Ward possesses much of the outward confidence Bryce Young seems to lack. That's not the only reason he's the pick here. He's become arguably the best quarterback in college football with a well-rounded skill set.
Round 1 - Pick 5
Georgia • Sr • 6'4" / 220 lbs
Projected Team
L.A. Rams
PROSPECT RNK
24th
POSITION RNK
4th
PAYDS
1818
RUYDS
57
INTS
5
TDS
15
If it's not Shedeur Sanders to serve as Matthew Stafford's heir apparent, maybe it's Beck, another polished pocket passer who'd conceivably work well in Sean McVay's very structured offense.
Round 1 - Pick 6
Colorado • Sr • 6'2" / 215 lbs
Projected Team
Tennessee
PROSPECT RNK
9th
POSITION RNK
2nd
PAYDS
2018
RUYDS
-25
INTS
4
TDS
18
Let's make it three quarterbacks in a row, with Sanders bringing his version of prime time to Nashville. While this may seem premature for the Titans to move off Levis, if his disastrous play continues, they may have no other choice.
Round 1 - Pick 7
Texas • Jr • 6'4" / 320 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Jets
PROSPECT RNK
10th
POSITION RNK
2nd
To build for the future, while adding an instant starter to an offensive front that features two blockers in their mid-30s in the 2024 season, the Jets go with the pass-protecting specialist from Texas here.
Round 1 - Pick 8
Ole Miss • Sr • 6'4" / 255 lbs
Projected Team
Cincinnati
PROSPECT RNK
35th
POSITION RNK
6th
The Bengals add another youthful edge rusher to a defensive front that needs more of a youthful spark on the perimeter.
Round 1 - Pick 9
Arizona • Jr • 6'5" / 212 lbs
Projected Team
New Orleans
PROSPECT RNK
4th
POSITION RNK
1st
REC
42
REYDS
742
YDS/REC
17.7
TDS
4
McMillan is your classic chain-moving outside receiver who'll battle through physicality and win routinely at the catch point, precisely what the Saints could use in their offense.
Round 1 - Pick 10
Texas A&M • Jr • 6'4" / 285 lbs
Projected Team
Arizona
PROSPECT RNK
16th
POSITION RNK
3rd
Like 2024 first-round pick Darius Robinson, Scourton is a sizable, inside-outside rusher with strength and pass-rush moves.
Round 1 - Pick 11
Alabama • Jr • 6'2" / 225 lbs
Projected Team
Las Vegas
PROSPECT RNK
26th
POSITION RNK
5th
PAYDS
1483
RUYDS
319
INTS
4
TDS
23
It's upside galore with Milroe because of his dynamic rushing abilities along with ascending arm strength and decision-making. The Raiders reset the right way, by picking a quarterback in the first round.
Round 1 - Pick 12
LSU • Jr • 6'2" / 200 lbs
Projected Team
N.Y. Giants
PROSPECT RNK
33rd
POSITION RNK
6th
PAYDS
1989
RUYDS
10
INTS
6
TDS
20
Right this very instant, if there's one quarterback I had to choose to ascend boards over the next four months, it'd be Nussmeier, who plays with such effortless arm talent, accuracy, and toughness within the pocket.
Round 1 - Pick 13
Georgia • Jr • 6'1" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
Miami
PROSPECT RNK
12th
POSITION RNK
1st
I love the idea of Starks and Jevon Holland, as interchangable safety types, at the backend of Miami's defense.
Round 1 - Pick 14
LSU • Jr • 6'1" / 225 lbs
Projected Team
Seattle
PROSPECT RNK
17th
POSITION RNK
1st
While this may seem early for a prospect who's already done for the year with a torn ACL, Perkins has All-Pro upside as a multi-dimensional player in Mike Macdonald's defense.
Round 1 - Pick 15
Michigan • Jr • 6'5" / 245 lbs
Projected Team
Denver
PROSPECT RNK
21st
POSITION RNK
1st
REC
29
REYDS
261
YDS/REC
9
TDS
2
Loveland still looks like the best tight end prospect in this class, and he can instantly become a high-volume target in Sean Payton's offense for Bo Nix.
Round 1 - Pick 16
Boise State • Jr • 5'9" / 215 lbs
Projected Team
Dallas
PROSPECT RNK
14th
POSITION RNK
1st
RUYDS
1248
YDS/ATT
9.9
REYDS
39
TDS
18
Would this not be the most Jerry Jones pick ever? Jeanty looks like one of the most threatening running back prospects in a long time, and the Cowboys have a major need at the position.
Round 1 - Pick 17
Missouri • Jr • 5'11" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
Philadelphia
PROSPECT RNK
11th
POSITION RNK
2nd
REC
31
REYDS
398
YDS/REC
12.8
TDS
6
With two highly paid veterans on the roster at receiver, the Eagles add a young, relatively cheap option with serious skills to add another layer to the passing attack.
Round 1 - Pick 18
Georgia • Jr • 6'5" / 265 lbs
Projected Team
Chicago
PROSPECT RNK
7th
POSITION RNK
1st
Williams is too freakish for the Bears to pass here, and he'd be a nice building block opposite the similarly long and athletic Montez Sweat on an ascending Chicago defensive line.
Round 1 - Pick 19
Michigan • Jr • 6'3" / 320 lbs
Projected Team
Indianapolis
PROSPECT RNK
3rd
POSITION RNK
1st
Graham has been a three-down stud and looked like a future first-round pick for two years now on the Michigan defensive line. Instant long-term solution up front in Indy.
Round 1 - Pick 20
Texas • Jr • 6'5" / 335 lbs
Projected Team
San Francisco
PROSPECT RNK
56th
POSITION RNK
3rd
The 49ers plan ahead for life after Trent Williams with the highly talented and productive blocker from Texas.
Round 1 - Pick 21
Ohio State • Sr • 6'1" / 205 lbs
Projected Team
L.A. Chargers
PROSPECT RNK
20th
POSITION RNK
3rd
REC
40
REYDS
526
YDS/REC
13.2
TDS
6
The Chargers get another polished route-running specialist for Justin Herbert to pair with 2024 second-round pick Ladd McConkey. Nice young duo in Los Angeles.
Round 1 - Pick 22
Penn State • Jr • 6'3" / 252 lbs
Projected Team
Tampa Bay
PROSPECT RNK
19th
POSITION RNK
4th
With the ability to play off the ball or rush the passer, Carter would give Todd Bowles plenty of new deployment options with this rookie.
Round 1 - Pick 23
Texas • Jr • 5'11" / 180 lbs
Projected Team
Baltimore
PROSPECT RNK
41st
POSITION RNK
5th
REC
21
REYDS
369
YDS/REC
17.6
TDS
4
While the Ravens seem to be getting by with Zay Flowers as the lone big-play weapon in the pass game, Bond's speed, route-running acumen and ball-tracking skill would make Baltimore's offense much diverse.
Round 1 - Pick 24
Minnesota • Sr • 6'6" / 330 lbs
Projected Team
Green Bay
PROSPECT RNK
49th
POSITION RNK
2nd
Yes, the Packers invested a first-round pick in a blocker in April -- Jordan Morgan -- but they dip back into that well to secure the long-term stability of the blocking unit in front of Jordan Love.
Round 1 - Pick 25
Tennessee • Jr • 6'5" / 243 lbs
Projected Team
Buffalo
PROSPECT RNK
13th
POSITION RNK
2nd
Pearce looked like a future top-10 pick after an incredible 2023 season at Tennessee. His 2024 hasn't been as efficient, but the length, burst, flexibility and flashes of pass-rush moves are there. More outside rushing help in Buffalo.
Round 1 - Pick 26
East Carolina • Sr • 6'3" / 193 lbs
Projected Team
Washington
PROSPECT RNK
28th
POSITION RNK
1st
The cornerback class looks weak, but Revel -- who's currently out for the year with a knee injury -- has immense potential because of his size, suddenness, and collegiate ball production.
Round 1 - Pick 27
UCF • Sr • 6'1" / 200 lbs
Projected Team
Pittsburgh
PROSPECT RNK
POSITION RNK
REC
23
REYDS
477
YDS/REC
20.7
TDS
3
Instead of waiting until Day 2, the Steelers jump at the opportunity to pick the sturdy outside receiver from Central Florida who's been a steady, three-level producer for going on three years now.
Round 1 - Pick 28
Ohio State • Sr • 6'5" / 260 lbs
Projected Team
Detroit
PROSPECT RNK
27th
POSITION RNK
5th
Even before the Aidan Hutchinson injury, the Lions were in need of more pass-rushing spark on the edge opposite the budding superstar. Sawyer is a gritty and productive three-down rusher.
Round 1 - Pick 29
Boston College • Sr • 6'2" / 247 lbs
Projected Team
Atlanta
PROSPECT RNK
44th
POSITION RNK
1st
While he's a tick smaller than most teams will like, his production speaks for itself and he plays with immense burst and speed around the corner.
Round 1 - Pick 30
Kentucky • Jr • 6'6" / 345 lbs
Projected Team
Houston
PROSPECT RNK
8th
POSITION RNK
2nd
The defensive tackle is the one clear weak spot on the Texans roster, and Walker can be a star playing on the inside with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. on the edges.
Round 1 - Pick 31
Arizona • Jr • 6'5" / 336 lbs
Projected Team
Kansas City
PROSPECT RNK
23rd
POSITION RNK
3rd
Another early-round pick on an offensive tackle. While Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid mask this flaw extraordinarily well, it's now been a few seasons in which the Chiefs tackles struggle individually.
Round 1 - Pick 32
Notre Dame • Sr • 6'0" / 203 lbs
Projected Team
Minnesota
PROSPECT RNK
92nd
POSITION RNK
3rd
Watts has been tremendous in 2024 for the Fighting Irish, and he can learn from ageless wonder Harrison Smith at safety early in his professional career.