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Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions: Western Conference finals expert picks as OKC tries to fend off upset
The top-seeded Thunder and sixth-seeded Wolves kick off the West finals on Tuesday night
The matchup for the 2025 Western Conference finals is set, and the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will battle the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves for a spot in the NBA Finals. The Wolves are just the fifth team ever to make the West finals as No. 6 seed or lower since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984.
After winning 68 games in the regular season and sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the first round, the Thunder ran into some trouble in the second round. They needed seven games to get past Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets, but they eventually got the job done with an overwhelming defensive effort in Game 7.
As for the Timberwolves, they've had a relatively smooth ride to this point. They only needed five games to dispatch both the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors, and their two defeats are tied for the fewest of any remaining team in the playoffs. This matchup will feature two of the best guards in the league -- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards -- and two teams looking to end long Finals droughts. The Thunder haven't been to the Finals since 2012, while the Timberwolves have never gotten there.
Which team will get the job done? Here's what our experts have to say:
Western Conference finals picks
Series odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): Thunder -340, Timberwolves +270
Botkin: Thunder in 6. OKC's near-death experience vs. Denver feels a lot like the 2015 Warriors, another young team clearly talented enough to win it all but perhaps trying to warp through the typically required stages of failure, being down 2-1 in the second round. Getting over that hump was a major step toward the title for those Warriors, and I believe this Denver win will do the same for the Thunder, who can guard the 3-point line and the rim and force Minnesota, in theory, into a heavy midrange attack. It feels almost irresponsible at this point to bet against Anthony Edwards, who just keeps eliminating all-time great players, but OKC is too good and too deep.
Herbert: Thunder in 6. One could frame Oklahoma City's seven-game series against Denver negatively: OKC struggled to score in the halfcourt against the Nuggets' zone, and, by not finishing them off earlier, it has given Minnesota a massive rest advantage. I see the second round as a positive, though. The Thunder were tested by a formidable opponent, and, for extended stretches of multiple games, their insane defense made a Nikola Jokić-led offense look absolutely lost. The Wolves fared well enough against the Warriors' defense -- shoutout to Julius Randle for continuing an incredibly impressive playoff run -- but I'm not sure they're ready for this.
Maloney: Thunder in 6. It's reasonable to have some doubts about the Thunder after they needed seven games to dispatch the Nuggets, but they should be better off for getting through such a test against the best player in the world. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander rounded into MVP-level form late in that series, and their defense, which boasts numerous options to throw at Anthony Edwards, is truly on a different level. Those two factors will make the difference in this matchup.
Quinn: Thunder in 5. Game 5 against Denver felt like a turning point for the Thunder, like the young team finally figured it out and is now ready to calmly storm to the championship their 68-win regular season suggested they were going to win. Minnesota's defense is better than Denver's, and they have the tools to execute the zone that stifled the Thunder better than the Nuggets did. But the Thunder have been through a war already and have figured out how to attack it. Minnesota can be pretty turnover-prone, and the Thunder generate more turnovers than anyone. They have every tool they need to slow down Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle. Oklahoma City was the far superior regular-season team, and as tough as Denver played them, that's not enough of a sample to dismiss 82 games of dominance.
Ward-Henninger: Thunder in 7. There's no way I could watch the defense that the Thunder played in Game 7 against the Nuggets and pick against them. They are going to pester and frustrate Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to no end, and that should eventually lead the OKC to victory. In a matchup of the two best playoff defenses thus far, I trust OKC in a grind-it-out series more than Minnesota, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has proven himself trustworthy to show up the way a superstar needs to.
Wimbish: Timberwolves in 7. OKC just went through the gauntlet facing the Nuggets to get to the West finals, and while the rest factor may play a role, that's not why I'm picking Minnesota. I watched a Thunder team still struggle to find consistent shot creation and scoring outside of SGA in the second round. Meanwhile, Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle have been phenomenal this postseason. The Thunder struggled scoring in the halfcourt against a zone defense vs. Denver, and I'm sure Minnesota will show that at some point in this series. The Thunder have the depth, top-ranked defense and presumed MVP on their side, but the Wolves have found ways to gut out wins this postseason thanks to Edwards and Randle.
