sga-cbs.jpg
Imagn Images

The Oklahoma City Thunder will try to take a 2-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals on Thursday. Oklahoma City cruised to a 114-88 win in the series-opener on Tuesday, easily covering the spread as a 7-point favorite. Minnesota held a 48-44 lead at halftime, but Oklahoma City used a 10-0 run in the third quarter to take control. Oklahoma City star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was named NBA MVP on Wednesday and scored 31 points in Game 1. However, our model is picking an under for SGA on Thursday. Game 2 tips off at 8:30 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under is 217 points in the latest Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds from FanDuel. Gilgeous-Alexander is +500 to score the first point of the game. See more Thunder vs. Timberwolves props here.

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps, or new users taking advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code or bet365 promo code, among others, could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.

Here are the model's top-three picks in the Thunder vs. Timberwolves SGP on Thursday:

  • Thunder -7.5 (-110)
  • Under 217 points (-112)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (+114)
  • SGP pays out +508 (odds subject to change)

Oklahoma City -7.5 (-110)

Oklahoma City has played lockdown defense throughout the postseason, and it showed up against Minnesota on Tuesday. The Thunder used a 10-man rotation to stay fresh and wear Minnesota down in the second half of that game, feeding off the home crowd. They forced 17 turnovers and scored 31 points off them, as Gilgeous-Alexander scored a team-high 31 points. The model projects the Thunder to cover the spread in well over 60% of simulations, earning an A rating.

Under 217 points (-112)

Oklahoma City has now gone Under the total in four of its last six games, including the first game of this series. The Thunder held Minnesota to a 15 of 51 mark from 3-point range (29.4%) and a 34.9% clip from the floor. Oklahoma City shot better than 50% from the perimeter, but the game still went Under the total. The deep rotation utilized by the Thunder allows them to maintain defensive pressure throughout the game, while Minnesota has also been one of the top defensive teams in the postseason this year. These teams have gone Under in 10 of their last 15 head-to-head games, and the model has the Under cashing in well over 50% of simulations for Thursday's game.  

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 6.5 assists (+114)

Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 6.4 assists per game in the regular season, and he is up slightly to 6.6 in the playoffs. He had nine assists in the series opener on Thursday, but he finished with six assists or fewer in three of his previous four games. The 26-year-old is facing a Minnesota defense that ranks second this postseason in points allowed per game (102.3). SportsLine's model has Gilgeous-Alexander finishing with 6.1 assists on Thursday, providing plenty of value on this prop at plus-money. Additionally, there is strong correlation between this prop and the full game Under for the same-game parlay.  

Want more NBA picks for today?

You've seen some of the model's top NBA playoff best bets for Thursday. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top NBA picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who's on a sizzling 133-103-2 (+1965) roll on his last 238 NBA picks, which includes a play on the Thunder vs. Timberwolves spread. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who has been crushing the NBA.