tyrese-haliburton-pacers-imagn.jpg
IMAGN Images

It may be difficult for Tyrese Haliburton to outdo his last-second, game-tying 3-pointer in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals and flashing a choke sign in homage to Reggie Miller to force overtime. That shot catapulted the Pacers to the opening game road victory, and the Pacers will try to do the same in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals when they visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET. Haliburton scored 31 points in Indiana's opening victory against the Knicks, and the model is projecting the Pacers' star point guard to go Over his total points number again on betting sites in Pacers vs. Thunder NBA player props.

Haliburton has scored more than 20 points in each of his last two Game 1s of the 2025 NBA playoffs, and his over/under for total points is 17.5 on sports betting apps. Haliburton has recorded 11 or more assists in four of his last six playoff appearances and is priced at +110 (risk $100 to win $110) to record 10+ assists on Thursday. Haliburton could be a popular piece in a Thunder vs. Pacers same-game parlay at online sports betting sites, along with NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. You can also check out the expert advice on top picks for the 2025 NBA Finals MVP. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today's slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.

Best Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 1 NBA props (odds subject to change):

  • Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)
  • Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-110)
  • Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)

Chet Holmgren Over 27.5 points + assists + rebounds (-118)

The model projects Holmgren to go Over his totals in points, rebounds and assists as individual statistics as well, but finds the best value in combining them together for an Over 27.5 PRA bet. Oh notes Holmgren has only gone Over this line in eight of 26 games this season, but that's largely due to how often Oklahoma City has played in one-sided affairs to limit his minutes. The Thunder will have had more than a full week off, last playing on Wednesday, May 28, and Oh expects a significant workload for Holmgren in Game 1, even if it does trend toward a blowout. Holgren went Over this number in three of four games he played at least 30 minutes in the Western Conference Finals. 

"Given Indiana's historically amazing and mathematically impossible number of comebacks in the playoffs this season, we doubt Oklahoma City will take its foot of the gas, even up 20 in the early fourth quarter unless Indiana sits their starters," Oh said. "I like how Chet responded to getting tossed around by Denver's superior frontcourt size and beef after Game 1 having 11, 16, 13, 8, 11, and 11 rebounds. I love how he responded to getting obliterated by the Wolves in Game 3 with 21 and 22 points on 17 for 27 shooting." FanDuel Sportsbook is offering the best odds at -118, and a FanDuel promo code gives new users $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (-110)

Haliburton had 21 points over 37 minutes against the Knicks in Indiana's closeout Game 6 victory and he went Over this total in four of six contests against New York. The 25-year-old guard averaged 18.6 points per game during the regular season and the model projects him for 19.5 points on Thursday, leaving the model to love the chance to get this play at +102 odds on FanDuel. Most sportsbooks have Haliburton's Over 17.5 points priced as minus-money odds, so this is a line to act on quickly with a FanDuel promo code before it moves to join those other betting apps.

He averaged 21 ppg against the Knicks and he's averaging 18.8 ppg this postseason. He's been more aggressive with his shot, averaging 14.6 field-goal attempts per game in the postseason compared to 13.8 in the regular season, and is playing 35.1 minutes per game compared to 33.6 in the regular season. Expect Haliburton to want to prove he can keep up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the overwhelming favorite to be the leading scorer in this series, but Haliburton has a pair of 30-point games this postseason as well.

Myles Turner Over 5.5 rebounds (+115)

Turner failed to go Over this number in any of Indiana's six games against the Knicks, but after going Over 5.5 rebounds in four of five games against the Cavaliers and averaging 6.5 rebounds per game this season, the model views this as a buy-low opportunity. The model projects Turner for seven rebounds in Game 1. He had 12 points and 11 rebounds in a 120-114 competitive loss on Dec. 26 against the Thunder and despite only playing 20 minutes in a 21-point loss to the Thunder on March 29, he still pulled in five boards.

The Pacers will need Turner's size to counter the Thunder's height and inside presence in Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. With the Pacers and Thunder playing at a top-three pace throughout the postseason, and both ranking in the top seven in pace during the regular season, there should be plenty of shots and opportunities for rebounds for Turner. Caesars Sportsbook is offering this at +115 odds, and a Caesars Sportsbook promo code provides new users with 10 100% profit boost tokens after placing a wager of $1 or more. 

Want more NBA picks for Thunder vs. Pacers in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals?

You've seen some of the model's top NBA props for Pacers vs. Thunder on Thursday in Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Now, get spread, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Thursday's top NBA picks from expert Mike Barner, who's on a sizzling 229-166-2 (+3614) roll over his last 397 NBA picks. He also has an NBA player props pick on the 2025 NBA MVP Award winner. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Game 1, all from an expert who's up over 36 units.

Finally, SportsLine expert Alex Selesnick, aka PropStarz, has made an NBA player prop pick for Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Selesnick is 147-102 (2199.5) over his last 249 NBA player props bets. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for Thunder vs. Pacers, all from an expert who's up nearly 22 units.