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The Minnesota Timberwolves will be desperate to defend their home court when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of the Western Conference finals on Saturday night. Oklahoma City leads the best-of-seven series 2-0 after cruising to a pair of double-digit wins at home earlier this week. Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 34.5 points through the first two games of the series, while Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards is averaging 25 points and nine rebounds. The Thunder are favored by 3 points and the over/under is 218.5 points in the latest Timberwolves vs. Thunder odds from BetMGM, and the latest BetMGM promo code gives new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses. You can also check out our NBA prop picks for Thunder vs. Wolves Game 3.

SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh is the expert behind the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model is 23-11 (68%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.

Here are the model's top three picks for a Timberwolves vs. Thunder SGP on Saturday:

  • Oklahoma City -3 (-109)
  • Under 218.5 (-108)
  • Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 points (-105)
  • SGP pays out +400 at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Oklahoma City -3 (-109)

Oklahoma City covered the spread in both of its home games earlier this week, despite shooting 9 of 33 (27.3%) from 3-point range in Game 2. The Thunder received huge contributions from their three best players on Thursday, including a 38-point effort from Gilgeous-Alexander, who was named league MVP. Center Chet Holmgren had 22 points, while small forward Jalen Williams posted a double-double with 26 points and 10 rebounds. Oklahoma City has too much balance for Minnesota to contend with, and the model has the Thunder covering the spread in over 50% of simulations.

Under 218.5 (-108)

Minnesota was never able to get into an offensive rhythm in the first two games of the series, finishing with 88 points in Game 1 and 103 points in Game 2. Forward Julius Randle shot 2 of 11 from the floor and was not even on the court down the stretch on Thursday due to his poor play. Additionally, Naz Reid is 0 for his last 14 from 3-point range. The Thunder are not coming off a strong outside shooting performance of their own, and they have gone Under in nine of their last 11 trips to Minnesota. SportsLine's model has these teams combining for 213 points on Saturday. 

Aaron Wiggins Over 4.5 points (-105)

Wiggins averaged 12.0 points in the regular season and while that number has dipped in the postseason, he is still going over this mark at 6.6 points per game. He is being offered at a low number after getting shut out in 10 minutes on Thursday. Wiggins averaged more points on the road than at home during the regular season, going Over 4.5 points at a 35-8 clip away from home. The model has him projected to score 6.0 points in Game 3, so the Over is the play at -105.

Want more NBA picks for today?

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Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today's top NBA picks from expert Alex Selesnick, who's on a sizzling 142-101 (+1724) roll on his last 243 NBA player props, which includes a play on one of Minnesota's stars. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who's up more than 17 units in his last 243 NBA bets.