MLB Awards Watch: Are MVP races already over? Barring injury, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani look like locks

The favorites are obvious, but let's run through some alternatives anyway. Hey, weirder things have happened

Aside from the on-field action, notably as it relates to the playoff chase, one of the many fun things to follow during a Major League Baseball season would be the races for the major awards. The Big Dog would obviously be the Most Valuable Player award and in baseball, we have one in each league. 

The worry here is that both races are shaping up as duds with repeat winners lapping the field. 

On the American League side, two-time MVP Aaron Judge is currently slashing .387/.485/.757 (248 OPS+) for the Yankees with 15 doubles, two triples, 21 homers, 50 RBI, 55 runs and is the MLB leader with 4.7 WAR. He leads the AL in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, hits, runs and total bases.

Over in the National League, Shohei Ohtani is hitting .288/.386/.653 (191 OPS+) for the Dodgers with nine doubles, four triples, 23 homers, 39 RBI, 64 runs, 11 steals and 3.0 WAR. He doesn't have nearly as comfortable a current lead as Judge, but there's an X-factor looming and that is Ohtani's eventual return to the mound. 

Let's quickly examine the state of the races through the lens of betting odds, via BetMGM.

American League

Favorite: Judge -10000

Could Judge go into a monster slump? I mean, obviously the answer is yes. It just feels like his lead is so big right now that it's slump-proof, assuming Judge doesn't go into a historical tailspin. Betting against Judge right now is betting on a major injury, perhaps even one that ends his season. He was held to 106 games in 2023, but he also played in 158 (plus 14 playoff games) last season and 157 (plus nine playoff games) in 2022. In 2021, he played in 148. The injury-prone label doesn't apply to him anymore. 

On the off-chance you wanted to gamble on someone else -- and I wouldn't advise it -- here are the three most realistic options in a sea of unrealistic options: 

• Bobby Witt Jr. +3000 -- If Witt were hitting like last year, he might be worth a flier in the chance that Judge does get hurt, but instead he's just hitting .287/.346/.494 (133 OPS+) with 2.9 WAR. He's been good but not amazing. Still, he's the best chance to put things together if you did want to wager on Judge going down.
• Cal Raleigh +3500 -- Raleigh has a 189 OPS+ with 23 home runs (tied for MLB lead with Ohtani) as a catcher. That means he's on pace for 63 home runs. If he does this and the Mariners win the AL West, he'd finish second in MVP voting for sure. So, again, if you bet on Judge getting hurt, that's where you could justify a Raleigh play. It's sure hard to envision a catcher hitting 60-plus bombs, of course. 
• José Ramírez +8000 -- While Ramírez probably remains under-appreciated nationally, he isn't a secret or anything. He's finished second, third (twice), fourth, fifth and sixth in MVP voting before. He's hitting .330/.386/.553 (163 OPS+) with 2.6 WAR this season. 

The most likely outcome here is these guys are vying for second. 

This one overall just screams stay away. You can't justify laying -10000 on anyone in any bet ever and Judge seems overwhelmingly likely to win it.

National League

Favorite: Ohtani, -300

As I've been saying for weeks to all who will listen, there is an opening here if you believe either 1) Ohtani will not pitch this season or 2) Ohtani will pitch terribly this season. 

The best bet is obviously that Ohtani will pitch something like 65-80 innings and do it quite well. If that's the case, adding the value from his pitching to his offense for a first-place team that will presumably stay either atop the NL West or close by is what separates him from the field. 

If there is no other element to Ohtani than offense though, as I said, there's an opening. His home run and probably even runs scored pace need to slow down, but the all-around play element could and should work against Ohtani if his pitching isn't there and he's simply a designated hitter. That's because, remarkably, Ohtani's chief competition right now could be Pete Crow-Armstrong. 

Let's run through some non-Ohtani possibilities. 

Fernando Tatis Jr., +900

Tatis opened the season looking like the monster he was 2019-21, but things have down a bit downhill for him. He's slashing .265/.340/.478 (127 OPS+) with seven doubles, a triple, 13 homers, 28 RBI, 41 runs, 11 steals and 2.7 WAR. The odds here reflect his immense upside. There's a world where the Padres, who are only one game out right now, win the NL West behind Tatis' hot streak down the stretch. 

Pete Crow-Armstrong, +1000

Here's where things could get spicy if Ohtani either doesn't pitch or pitches very poorly. There's an argument to be made that if we isolated baserunning and defense that PCA is the best player in baseball. He leads the majors with 21 steals and skates across center field, running down seemingly every fly ball (leading the majors in putouts among outfielders). He has a cannon for an arm, too. 

Now throw in PCA hitting .281/.319/.562 (148 OPS+) with 15 doubles, three triples, 15 homers, 51 RBI and 48 runs and you get an NL-best 3.8 WAR. 

The Cubs have the best record in the NL, too. 

People keep expecting him to slump at the plate, but it's possible this is just who PCA is now. If that's the case, there's a decent chance he takes MVP and the +1000 odds are pretty enticing. If you are betting against Ohtani, the value might well lie right here.

Corbin Carroll, +1400

Carroll is hitting .262/.336/.578 (149 OPS+) with 11 doubles, six triples, 18 homers, 39 RBI, 47 runs, 10 steals and 2.5 WAR. The Diamondbacks recently went through a horrific stretch of baseball and sit two games under .500. There's a world where they get hot and make a strong playoff push behind Carroll's MVP-like performance, of course, but I won't be betting on it. 

Kyle Tucker, +1500

Tucker has been great for the Cubs this season and even beyond the impressive stat line, manager Craig Counsell has said multiple times that the acquisition of Tucker is what took the Cubs' offense as a whole -- one of the best in baseball this season -- to the next level. For now, though, Tucker is second in line on his own team. 

Speaking of second in line ... 

Freddie Freeman, +2500

After a walk-off knock at Dodger Stadium Tuesday night, Freeman is now hitting .369/.435/.626, leading the league in average, OBP, OPS and OPS+ (199). He also leads with 19 doubles while having hit nine homers and driven home 40 runs. It just feels like he's behind his teammate, again, unless Ohtani just doesn't pitch at all or is awful in doing so. 

Francisco Lindor, +4000

We just saw him finish second in MVP voting behind Ohtani after a slow start in 2024. He's been great this season, a true catalyst for the Mets offense while being the defensive leader of a team that's been in or around first place all year. 

Kyle Schwarber, +4000

The Phillies have also been in or around first place for a good portion of this season while Schwarber has been the most consistent force on offense. He's got 19 homers and 44 RBI right now. It would be awfully tough for him to win this award as a DH when he's competing with Ohtani and all the others listed here.