2025 MLB Draft: Four potential picks who could go lower than expected after disappointing seasons

These players could hear their names called later than we initially thought this spring

Yesterday, I highlighted some prospects in Major League Baseball's upcoming amateur draft who I thought may go earlier than anticipated when the proceedings get underway on Sunday, July 13. Today, I'm going to examine four prospects who may meet the inverse fate and remain on the board for longer than expected.

Before diving in, I must stress that I am not dismissing these individuals or their chances of having a meaningful baseball career. I expect each of them to go within the top five rounds, which by definition alone makes them some of the best players in the world. All I'm doing here is picking a few talents who, for this or that reason, may have to wait a a little longer to hear their names called later this month.

Got it? Good. Let's proceed.

1. Cam Cannarella, CF, Clemson

I had Cannarella ranked 14th entering the season on the basis of his speed, center-field defense, plate approach, and, yes, toughness. (It's only fair given this is someone who played almost the entire 2024 campaign with a torn labrum in his shoulder.) While I could still envision him coming off the board within the first 20 to 30 picks, my recent talks with scouts have made me less confident about that outcome -- to the extent that I didn't place him on my final list. 

As I noted in the spring, Cannarella's pool of suitors may have already been limited by his lack of power. One veteran scout quipped that he has less raw strength than Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick. Mind you, Frelick may record his 300th career big-league game before notching his 10th home run. Cannarella, for his part, didn't do much to change minds by launching a career-low five home runs this season in nearly 300 trips to the plate.

To further complicate matters, Cannarella hasn't been able to leverage his wheels on the basepaths since suffering the injury. He went 24 for 29 on stolen-base attempts as a freshman. Since then, he's mustered just six steals on 12 attempts. Given the questions about his offensive projections (teams always have concern about how low-wattage hitters will fare against big-league pitching), it's reasonable to conclude that the error bars around his game -- and, indeed, his draft range -- have widened over the last few months.

2. Tre Phelps, 1B/OF, Georgia

After posting a 1.088 OPS in SEC play as a freshman, Phelps had some first-round buzz entering the spring despite having a profile (right-right corner player) that doesn't receive much love within the industry anymore. Alas, he didn't manage nearly as well in Year 2. Phelps hit just .280/.346/.452 within the conference, all while seeing his strikeout rate leap from 9.1% to 26%. Even if he could play a premium position, he'd still have a downward arrow attached to his name. Without much secondary value to speak of, it's hard to see him going within the top 100 picks. 

3. Nick Dumesnil, OF, California Baptist

I don't think I'm breaking news here by writing that smaller-school players are always working with tighter margins than their power-school counterparts. That includes Dumesnil, who just couldn't match his 2024 efforts, when he had one of the most productive individual seasons in the sport between the regular season and Cape Cod League. Dumesnil saw his OPS and power output decline year to year, all the while his strikeout rate ticked up from 12.9% to 19.8%. To be clear: those are his overall numbers, and not just those compiled during conference play. I'm not sure if Dumesnil will slide all the way to the third round like Mike Sirota did last summer, but I have a hard time imagining he'll go in the top 50 picks.

4. Nolan Schubart, OF, Oklahoma State

In theory, Schubart should have a strong offensive foundation in place. He possesses big-time raw strength from the left side and he employs an appreciable feel for the strike zone. Unfortunately, he lacks the bat-to-ball skills to make the most of those traits. He recorded 16 strikeouts in just nine Cape Cod League games last summer, and this spring he hit only .211/.367/.505 with a 28% K rate in conference play. It's possible that a team seeking an upside play (or, maybe, an underslot deal) pops him earlier than I anticipate, but I have a hard time viewing him as a top-100 candidate at this stage.