2025 U.S. Open predictions, favorites: Ranking the top of the field from 1-25 at Oakmont

Is Scottie Scheffler still the clear No. 1? How far has Rory McIlroy fallen amid his recent struggles?

OAKMONT, Pa. -- The last time the U.S. Open was held at Oakmont Country Club, it was Dustin Johnson who silenced the critics. Winning the national championship one year after booting it away on the 72nd hole at Chambers Bay, Johnson claimed his long-awaited first major title and mended a broken heart. Those have become all too common on this stage.

At the top of the game, the languid right hander continued a trend of some of the best players in the world performing at their best at this Western Pennsylvania behemoth. He joined site victors such as Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, Sam Snead and Ernie Els, accomplishing what Tiger Woods (T2 in 2007) could not by reigning supreme at what many consider to be the most difficult golf course in the United States.

In fact, Johnson's 11 birdies (no eagles) are the second fewest amount of par breakers made by an eventual champion in any of the 101 major championships since 2000. He carded the lone bogey-free round of the championship and stood as one of four players to finish the week in red figures.

Since its first U.S. Open, Oakmont has stood tall. It has yielded a scoring average of at least 2 over in every single round. It has been unrelenting and unapologetic. So, it's only natural for its champion to be the same.

Insert this year's top players.

A crop of five frontrunners is headlined by the man who has been serving as the main act these last four seasons. Scottie Scheffler rolls into this Pittsburgh borough a man possessed with three shiny new trophies in a room in his house thanks to his play across his last four tournament starts.

There is no doubt that Scheffler is the man to beat, but if usurped, who could be the one taking his mantle? Reigning champion and two-time U.S. Open winner Bryson DeChambeau has as good a case as anyone. His LIV Golf league mate, Jon Rahm, surely does, too. Rory McIlroy has experienced an odd month -- that may be putting it mildly -- since his Masters victory, but he is never far from the center of attention. And then there's Xander Schauffele, who continues his search to find the form that led him to the first two majors of his career just a year ago.

They are the five best players in the world, and while it may not be close, remember: This is a U.S. Open being held at Oakmont. It doesn't care for pedigrees, just that you are the one most well-equipped to survive the test that it provides across 72 holes this weekend.

Check out which trends will help determine the 2025 U.S. Open champion along with a breakdown of five sleepers to watch at Oakmont. Of the 156 players in this stacked field, let's take a look the 25 most likely to be the last man standing as the week begins. 

2025 U.S. Open field, ranked

1. Scottie Scheffler (T2 in 2022): Scheffler is as complete as ever and puts the competition into a strangle hold every time he steps onto a golf course. He enters this U.S. Open with the best form and best preparation in his corner, which was not necessarily the case last season when he finished T41. Lamenting that the Memorial took a little out of him ahead of Pinehurst No. 2 given the quick turnaround, the world No. 1's week off between the two tournaments this season can only be seen as beneficial. He clips the second-best player in the field in terms of total strokes gained by 2.5 strokes per tournament and ranks inside the top 25 of each strokes-gained category. A win would mean another slam opportunity arises next month in Northern Ireland.

2. Jon Rahm (Won in 2021): Death, taxes and Rahm finishing inside the top 10 at LIV Golf tournaments. Now with 20 straight such finishes on the 54-hole circuit, the two-time major champion has translated that form to some quality major finishes in his last handful of starts. Riding three straight major top 15s into Oakmont, the Spaniard will be engaged given how his PGA Championship ended. He may be the second-best driver in the field, which will be needed given the severity of the rough.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (Won in 2020, 2024): DeChambeau tops that driving list. The big-hitting right hander has transformed into a regular fixture in U.S. majors the last few seasons as he has finished inside the top six across six of the last seven majors on American soil. That obviously includes his dramatic victory a season ago over Rory McIlroy and his weekend runs at the PGA Championship and the Masters. Undone by his iron play at the first two major championships, DeChambeau has introduced a new set of scoring clubs in hopes of rectifying that situation.

4. Xander Schauffele (T3 in 2019): An underrated grinder, which is a prerequisite this week, Schauffele has finished inside the top 15 in all eight of his U.S. Open appearances. His high floor was made for this tournament, but those ceiling performances have yet to shine through. Perhaps breaking through for not one but two majors a season ago is the link that was missing. He seems to be getting closer to that type of form by the week.

5. Rory McIlroy (Won in 2011): The season slam discussion seems like an ancient tale at this point. Since his win at the Masters, McIlroy has mainly been away from the spotlight as he stumbled at the PGA Championship and missed the cut badly last week at the Canadian Open -- his first weekend omission since last year's Open. The driver was the root cause of both of those finishes and will ultimately tell the story of his week. The good news is that this has turned into his best major as he has six straight top 10s and has lost to only two players across the last two years. Unfortunately, those two players were the two champions.

6. Sepp Straka (T28 in 2019): It's a bit of a "choose your own adventure" after the top five, so why not roll with one of the multiple-time PGA Tour winners this season. Straka ranks inside the top 10 in terms of driving accuracy and sits behind only Scheffler in terms of approach play. That is a lethal combination at any golf course, but especially at the U.S. Open. His short game will need to be huge to have a real chance, but it has a way of meeting the moment as noted by his win on the other side of the commonwealth last month.

7. Joaquin Niemann (T23 in 2020): Fresh off the best major championship finish of his career -- a T8 at the PGA Championship -- Niemann punched his ticket into the U.S. Open thanks to being the top dog in LIV Golf's individual standings. Four times a winner this season on that circuit, he looks to parlay the success from Charlotte to Pittsburgh. He's been solid throughout the bag in 2025 and comes in off his latest triumph at LIV Golf Virginia.

8. Keegan Bradley (T4 in 2014): After this week, you may believe -- as I do -- that Bradley will play the U.S. Ryder Cup he's captaining. He has compounded his stellar play in recent weeks with top-10 finishes at the PGA Championship and the Memorial. One to thrive at difficult golf courses, his well-rounded tee-to-green game gives him plenty of avenues through which to navigate these high-scoring affairs. He's comfortable in this part of the country.

9. Collin Morikawa (T4 in 2021): His strong start to 2025 seems like ages ago as Morikawa has been mumbling under his breath the last couple of months. Searching for something -- even he is not quite certain what, exactly -- the two-time major champion is without a top-10 finish since The Players Championship. His game was built for this championship -- as noted by the four straight top-15 finishes -- but short-game shortcomings will need to be addressed.

10. Harris English (3rd in 2021): Never a name to pop off the page but nevertheless a name that always seems to be there at the U.S. Open. English has three top-10 finishes in his last five appearances in this tournament, and he is playing some sneaky great golf in 2025. A winner at Torrey Pines who has acquitted himself nicely at other driver-heavy golf courses such as Augusta National, Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, the Georgia Bulldog can tough it out with the best of them. He's currently experiencing the best driving season of his career.

11. Shane Lowry (T2 in 2016): It was his tournament to lose nearly a decade ago, and he did just that. Lowry entered Sunday of the 2016 championship with a four-stroke lead before carding a final-round 76 to lose by three. He returns with another chance thanks to his iron play, which ranks third on the PGA Tour, and his consistency off the tee. Questions about his putting late in tournaments are getting louder.

12. Tommy Fleetwood (2nd in 2018): Always a consideration in major championships, the Englishman continues to do everything well. A putter switch has propelled him forward on the greens and led to a couple top-five finishes in his last four starts. It's that club which will need to continue to cooperate if Fleetwood hopes to enter the winner's circle for the first time in a major championship and for the first time at any U.S. event. He has not one but two final-round 63s under his belt in this championship.

13. Patrick Cantlay (T3 in 2024): Lost in the hoopla of last year's finish was that Cantlay nearly won the tournament. Facing a 10-foot birdie bid on the last, the American was unable to convert and ultimately finished in a tie for third -- his best major result anywhere. He continues to strike the ball well and found something on the greens at Jack's Place, which should bode well for his chances, though he is approaching three years without a victory.

14. Ludvig Åberg (T12 in 2024): His play in Canada was emblematic of his season. Åberg is a weapon with the driver in hand and can catch sustained lightning in a bottle on the greens, but what happensin between the tee box and the putting surface remains somewhat uninspiring. The Swede was the 36-hole leader in his championship debut last year en route to a T12 finish.

15. Viktor Hovland (T12 in 2019): One of those players where anything is on the table. Hovland has his iron play under control, but the rest of his game could go either way -- the driver has been hit or miss, and the short game has been surprisingly competent. The tight run-offs around the greens at Pinehurst No. 2 ate him up for breakfast, so let's see what the thick rough of Oakmont brings.

16. Jordan Spieth (Won in 2015): Spieth enters top 15 in the world in total strokes gained the last three months thanks to performances like his T7 at the Memorial. The driver has been the cornerstone of his game as the other areas continue to play catch-up following his offseason wrist surgery. He has just one top-15 finish in 13 U.S. Open starts with that coming via his victory 10 years ago.

17. Corey Conners (T9 in 2024): The perpetual lurker, Conners could be the one to fill that Lowry role from 2016. He missed his first five cuts in the U.S. Open before flashing for a top-10 result at Pinehurst No 2. Ranks fifth in terms of total strokes gained the last three months, but a win seems like a big lift.

18. Hideki Matsuyama (T2 in 2017): Such a good U.S. Open competitor, but the form drops him in these rankings. The man from Japan has just one top-10 finish this season with that coming in Week No. 1 with his winning performance at The Sentry. His ball striking has been checkered as his short game continues to be reliable. He has finished inside the top 21 in eight of his 12 U.S. Open starts.

19. Russell Henley (T7 in 2024): Henley has four top-25 finishes in his last five U.S. Opens, including a career-best T7 at Pinehurst No. 2. He ended a mini skid at the Memorial where he finished T5 without much help from his putter. His lack of pop limits his upside, but Henley is as rock steady as they come.

20. Justin Thomas (T8 in 2020): It's low, yes, but the major form warrants a drop. Thomas has been brutal on golf courses that require some form of driving competence, as noted by his opening 80 at Muirfield Village and his missed cut at Quail Hollow. He impresses from the fairway in, and if he finds the short grass more times than not, he should be in decent shape. In his last 12 major championship starts, Thomas only has one finish inside the top 30 to go along with six missed cuts.

21. Ben Griffin (n/a): Slow and steady improvement throughout not only his career but this season. After winning as a team at the Zurich Classic, Griffin captured a top 10 at the PGA Championship, won the Charles Schwab Challenge and put up a solid fight against Scheffler at the Memorial. The U.S. Open will serve as another hurdle for him to jump over as he makes his debut appearance.

22. Sam Burns (T9 in 2024): He had a great chance to win in Canada thanks to a final-round 62 but ultimately fell to Ryan Fox in a pillow fight of a playoff. Burns quietly has five top-20 finishes in his six starts since the Masters as the ball striking is slowly but surely making inroads. It will be tested this week, but the good news is that he's the best putter in this field by nearly 0.50 strokes per round.

23. Tyrrell Hatton (T6 in 2018): Players will need to take the good breaks with the bad. They will need to battle internal demons and overcome that little voice inside their head that feeds them doubt. Will Hatton be able to do that in a major championship? I believe so. Will he do that in a U.S. Open? I have my doubts.

24. Patrick Reed (4th in 2018): It was easy to be super high on Reed for the PGA Championship, but he made me look like a fool! Still, Reed will relish the difficult conditions Oakmont provides and assert an "us against the world" mentality. His iron play has not been this sharp since 2018 when he won the Masters.

25. Denny McCarthy (T7 in 2022): Not someone you would peg to fare well at major championships, but he doesn't care what you think. Finished T8 at the PGA Championship and has connected on weekend appearances in three straight U.S. Opens highlighted by his T7 at The Country Club. If he is in the fairway, he can surprise.