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The sixth-seeded Ole Miss Rebels battle the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans in their South Region Sweet 16 matchup on Friday. Ole Miss advanced with a 91-78 win over Iowa State, while Michigan State held off New Mexico 71-63 in the Round of 32 on Sunday. The Rebels (24-11), who are 7-9 in 10 NCAA Tournament appearances, are competing in their first Sweet 16 since losing to Arizona in 2001. The Spartans (29-6), who are 75-36 in 38 NCAA Tournaments, are making their second trip to the Sweet 16 in the past three years.

Tipoff from State Farm Arena in Atlanta is set for 7:09 p.m. ET. Michigan State is a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Ole Miss vs. Michigan State odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 144.5. Before making any Michigan State vs. Ole Miss picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the Sweet 16 round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on a 228-168 roll (+1815) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. This model has also produced brackets that have beaten over 91% of CBS Sports entries in four of the last six tournaments and has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds. Anyone following could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Ole Miss vs. Michigan State and just locked in its March Madness predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the college basketball odds and lines for Michigan State vs. Ole Miss:

  • Ole Miss vs. Michigan State spread: Michigan State -3.5
  • Ole Miss vs. Michigan State over/under: 144.5 points  
  • Ole Miss vs. Michigan State money line: Michigan State -177, Ole Miss +148
  • MISS: The Rebels hit the money line in 24 of their last 35 games (+18.55 units)  
  • MSU: The Spartans have covered the spread in 23 of their last 28 games (+17.50 units)  
  • Ole Miss vs. Michigan State picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why Michigan State can cover

Senior guard Jaden Akins has been solid this season and is coming off a 16-point performance in Sunday's come-from-behind win over New Mexico. He had 11 points and five rebounds in an 87-62 win over Bryant in Friday's first-round matchup. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 12.7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 27 minutes of action.

Also leading a balanced Spartans offense is freshman guard Jase Richardson, who has contributed mostly off the bench this season. In the 77-74 Big 10 Tournament semifinal loss to Wisconsin, he poured in 21 points and grabbed seven rebounds. He added 15 points, three rebounds and two assists in the win over Bryant last Friday. In 34 games, including 13 starts, he is averaging 11.9 points, 3.2 rebounds and two assists in 24.9 minutes. See which team to pick here.

Why Ole Miss can cover 

Ole Miss senior guard Sean Pedulla has registered double-digit scoring in each of the last five games, including a pair of solid performances in the NCAA Tournament. In the 71-64 win over North Carolina in the first round, he scored 20 points, grabbed six boards and added five assists. He nearly recorded a double-double with 20 points, eight rebounds, four steals and two rebounds on Sunday against Iowa State. In 35 games, all starts, he is averaging 15.2 points, 3.7 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.9 steals in 33 minutes.

Senior forward Jaemyn Brakefield has bettered his season average over the past two games, as he primarily comes off the bench for the Rebels. In Sunday's win over the Cyclones, he poured in 19 points, while adding two rebounds and two steals. He had 12 points, four assists and three rebounds in a first-round win over North Carolina last Friday. In 35 games, including one start, he is averaging 11.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 23.1 minutes. See which team to pick here.

How to make Ole Miss vs. Michigan State picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 147 combined points. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that hits in nearly 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Michigan State vs. Ole Miss, and which side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Ole Miss vs. Michigan State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned nearly $1,900 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.