Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Chris Sale's resurgence serves as a reminder to remain patient, and more

Plus, why Camilo Doval appears poised to take over Giants closer role

We've got so many ways to analyze players these days. Even if you aren't on the bleeding edge of analysis – I'm still not sure I actually understand what "seam-shifted wake" means – you've got infinitely more ways to judge a player's performance than we had even 12 years ago. 

But sometimes, we don't even need any of that newfangled stuff. 

Take Chris Sale, who got off to a weird start to the season, failing to throw a quality start in any of his first six outings and sporting a 5.40 ERA through those six starts. Sale was struggling, but there wasn't an obvious reason why. His velocity was more or less where it was supposed to be, and while his strikeout rate was a bit down, there wasn't really anything concerning in the pitch-level data – his slider was more or less getting its characteristic break, and he was generating swinging strike rates very similar to what he was producing last season. 

The best explanation for why Sale wasn't pitching well? He just wasn't pitching well. That might seem reductive, but sometimes, that's the answer. Sale was catching a bit more of the middle of the strike zone with his four-seamer and was generating slightly fewer swinging strikes as a result, but on the whole, he didn't look like a dramatically different pitcher than he usually did. In fact, if you just watched him pitch and didn't see the box scores, I think even very invested observers wouldn't have been able to tell much of a difference between the 2024, Cy Young Award-winning version of Sale and the one whose April was such a drag. 

He just needed to pitch better, and lo and behold, he's looked like himself over the past two starts. Sale struck out 10 for the second straight start Tuesday, giving him 20 strikeouts to just two walks over 13.2 innings two-run innings. His 4.07 ERA is still a bit elevated, but absolutely everything else looks exactly like it should: 30.3% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, and a 3.02 FIP. 

Sale is an ace who had a bad month. But there's a reason we tell you – over and over and over and over again – not to overreact to the first month of the season. It's not just to make ourselves feel better about preseason takes that look wrong, it's to try to help you avoid mistakes you'll regret. If you sold Sale after his first six starts, you got the bad six starts, but you also sold him at the nadir of his value and likely got someone significantly worse than Sale in return. That's the worst of both worlds. 

It's easy to be too patient in Fantasy and miss out on breakouts or hold on to obviously broken players for too long. But there was never anything obviously broken about Sale. He just needed to pitch better, and he has. As we always should have expected.

Here's what else you need to know about from Tuesday's action around MLB: 

Wednesday's top waiver-wire targets

Camilo Doval, RP, Giants (50%) – Ryan Walker's gotta be on thin ice at this point. He's been splitting saves pretty evenly with Doval while still clearly remaining the top closer option – Doval has gotten at least a couple of saves either from bailing Walker out or when Walker wasn't available – but I think that hierarchy has to be close to flipping. He blew a two-run lead by allowing a hit and two walks in the ninth against the Cubs Tuesday, and he's now sitting on a 6.57 ERA for the season. Walker hasn't been terrible despite the high ERA – Tuesday aside, his control has been very good and he's mostly limiting hard contact – but his strikeout rate is way down from last season and he's now allowed runs in three of his past six appearances. I'm not saying Doval is going to take this job and run away with it, but Walker doesn't have such a long track record as a closer that I think he's totally safe in the role. I'd be at least a little bit surprised if Doval didn't get the next save for the Giants. 

Porter Hodge, RP, Cubs (27%) – And then, on the other side of that game, we witnessed a historic meltdown from the Cubs closer. Pitching in a tie game, Ryan Pressly allowed eight runs on five hits and a walk – don't ask me to do the math on that one, I was watching the game and I'm still not sure how it happened – without recording an out. Pressly had mostly been keeping his head above water before this one, but there were plenty of warning signs already, with a K% below 10% and an xERA of 4.83 entering Tuesday. Hodge hasn't been perfect either – his strikeout rate is down significantly from last season while his walk rate is up slightly – but he's clearly better than Pressly at this point, and I think they have to give him a longer look in the ninth. 

Ivan Herrera, C, Cardinals (67%) – Herrera's rehab assignment was paused a few days ago due to some lingering soreness in his left knee, but he was back behind the plate for seven innings in Triple-A Tuesday and should be back in the team's lineup in the next few days. And I think he should be rostered in every single league once he's active – yes, even one-catcher leagues. Herrera was off to an incredible start before the injury and has a .364 expected wOBA at the major league over 103 career games. That's still a pretty small sample size, but it's pretty impressive nonetheless – William Contreras' career xwOBA is .342 and he's never had a season as high as Herrera's career mark, by comparison. Does that mean Herrera is better than Contreras? No, I don't think so. But I do think he has as much upside as basically anyone at the position at this point. 

Matthew Liberatore, SP, Cardinals (64%) – Facing a righty-heavy lineup Tuesday, Liberatore had to pivot away from his slider-first approach against the Pirates, and it still worked for him! He leaned more on his cutter and four-seamer and both worked well, leading to 17 swinging strikes total in the start. The Pirates aren't an especially tough matchup, but Liberatore has had strong starts against much tougher opponents already. Through seven starts, he has 38 strikeouts to just six walks over 41 innings, while generating a bunch of weak contact. I've never been a big believer in Liberatore, but he's making me rethink that. He's in line for two starts next week, and while the matchup against the Phillies to open the week isn't ideal, the Royals aren't an especially tough matchup, and Liberatore's slider could help neutralize some of those fearsome Phillies lefty bats. I'm kind of buying in. 

James Outman, OF, Dodgers (2%) – I was hoping the Dodgers would call up Dalton Rushing to replace Teoscar Hernandez (who was put on the IL with a hamstring injury Tuesday), but Outman's promotion makes more sense since he already has MLB experience and was on the 40-man roster. And hey, he was pretty awesome back in 2023, hitting 23 homers and stealing 16 bases while hitting .248 and playing good defense in the outfield. Things have gone pretty poorly for him since then – including a 36.3% strikeout rate and just a decent 109 wRC+ in Triple-A before his promotion – but maybe Outman can catch lightning in a bottle this time, keep the strikeout rate down, and provide some help in categories leagues. On the other hand, he struck out three times in his season debut Tuesday against the Marlins …